As rosters are finalized and spring training stands just around the corner we’ll start to see many projections. The first overall one I’ve seen with wins and losses is Clay Davenport’s. Go see his here.
They all look pretty reasonable to me, at least insofar as how each team finishes in its division. I’m not a numbers guy so I can’t pick nits or say things like “Only 85 wins?! Bah! I think they win 89!” Go read Clay’s methodology. It’s complicated.
And I’m glad people like Clay do these because it helps to put actual past performance and numbers and things on top of all of our offseason feelings and expectations. Aging curves and past performance being the best predictor of future performance are concepts that are easy (and frankly, fun) to forget when your team is having press conferences putting its jersey on its new free agent.
My favorite thing about projection season, though? How mainstream baseball writers will deride them as silly as they come out. They’ll drop barbs on Twitter and in their columns about how, since someone projected wins and losses for the league “there’s no reason to play the season now!” or some such. The disdain for projections and statistical analysis in general comes through pretty clearly in this stuff.
And then, come March, these same guys will run “predictions” columns. Based on far less data and far more unverifiable and unfalsifiable conventional wisdom and pure gut feeling. And rather than predict things like “generalized results over a sample of 2000+ games,” they’ll predict who out of 30 teams will win a seven-game series six months in the future. And claim their own expertise as the basis for taking them seriously.
The Dodgers announced this afternoon that legendary broadcaster Vin Scully underwent a “recommended medical procedure” this morning and will miss the the postseason. The good news is that he’s said to be “resting comfortably.”
Scully, who turns 88 next month, was expected to do radio broadcasts for the Dodgers the postseason. While he’ll skip the playoffs at the advice of his doctors, the Dodgers said that he’s looking forward to returning for his 67th season in the booth in 2016. Scully said in August that it will be his last.
On behalf of all baseball fans, get well soon, Mr. Scully.
Both starting third basemen have left Game 1 of the Rangers-Blue Jays series with injuries.
Adrian Beltre exited with a back injury in the second inning and now Josh Donaldson has left the game an inning after taking a knee to the head while trying to break up a double play.
It’s natural to wonder if Donaldson suffered a concussion on the play, particularly since Justin Morneau, then of the Twins, had his career derailed by a knee to the head on a nearly identical takeout slide in Toronto back in 2010. For now the Blue Jays are saying Donaldson left as a “precaution,” but as a Twins fan that play immediately flashed into my mind.
Donaldson will either win or finish runner-up for AL MVP after hitting .297 with 41 homers and a .939 OPS in 158 games during his first season in Toronto.
Here are the Astros and Royals lineups for Game 1 of the ALDS in Kansas City:
2B Jose Altuve
RF George Springer
SS Carlos Correa
LF Colby Rasmus
DH Evan Gattis
3B Luis Valbuena
1B Chris Carter
C Jason Castro
CF Jake Marisnick
SP Collin McHugh
Carlos Gomez started in center field and homered in the Wild Card game, but he’s on the bench tonight due to a lingering intercostal injury. According to manager A.J. Hinch he’s available to pinch-hit and is expected to start Game 2, but clearly Gomez’s health will be something to watch all series long.
SS Alcides Escobar
2B Ben Zobrist
CF Lorenzo Cain
1B Eric Hosmer
DH Kendrys Morales
3B Mike Moustakas
C Salvador Perez
LF Alex Gordon
RF Alex Rios
SP Yordano Ventura
Alcides Escobar has a .298 career on-base percentage, including a .293 OBP with 26 walks in 148 games this season, but because the Royals have a very good win-loss record in games when he’s hit leadoff manager Ned Yost has him atop the lineup tonight. Alex Gordon, who led the Royals in OBP at .377, is batting eighth.