Brian McCann AP

Let’s not overstate the impact Yankee Stadium will have on Brian McCann

23 Comments

As soon as the Yankees’ signing of free agent catcher Brian McCann to a five-year, $85 million contract was announced, the projections started rolling in. “McCann will hit 35-40 HRs with Yankee Stadium as home ballpark,” tweeted David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Others were less bold, suggesting 35 as a ceiling for the former Brave.

It makes sense at first glance. Yankee Stadium is 314 feet down the right field line, a feature of the park that has turned a catchable deep fly ball in 29 other parks into a fourth-row dinger. According to Statcorner, Yankee Stadium allowed home runs to left-handed hitters at a rate 16 percent higher than average. It was even more garish in 2012, when Statcorner pegged Yankee Stadium at 46 percent above the league average. In 2011, it was 45 percent; 39 percent in 2010; and 14 percent in 2009. As Keith Law noted in Saturday’s column, “Sixteen of his 20 homers in 2013 were to dead right field, as were 15 of his 20 bombs in 2012.” And that was playing half his games in the comparatively much more pitcher-friendly Turner Field.

Since the new Yankee Stadium opened up in 2009, however, a Yankee has crossed the 30-homer plateau just eight times. Two were by Curtis Granderson (43, 41), three were by Mark Teixeira (39, 39, 33), one by Robinson Cano (33), and two by Alex Rodriguez (30, 30). Alfonso Soriano could also join the list if you count his 17 as a Cub and 17 as a Yankee. But with that list, you have only two natural left-handed hitters (Granderson, Cano), a switch-hitter (Teixeira), and two right-handers (Rodriguez, Soriano). About as even a split as you can get.

The lack of left-handed hitters to hit 30 or more homers hasn’t been for a lack of trying. They’ve had Hideki Matsui, Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez, and Travis Hafner, just to name a handful. Matsui hit 25 home runs as a Yankee in 2007. Swisher hit 36 as a member of the Athletics in 2006. Damon hit 24 in 2006. Ibanez hit 34 in 2009 with the Phillies. Hafner has more of an excuse as he hasn’t been a solid regular since 2007 but he hit 42 in 2006 with the Indians. If the short porch in right field is such a friend to lefties, why have only two lefties and one switch-hitter accomplished the feat in the five years of the stadium’s existence?

Let’s try some theoretical math. On FanGraphs, the Steamer projection system pegged McCann at 20 home runs prior to moving to the Bronx. If we buy that projection as realistic, and assume that 60 percent of his home runs (12) will come at home and 40 percent on the road (eight), even boosting the numbers by the highest Statcorner park factor listed above (45 percent), that would only put McCann at 25 home runs. (8 on the road + (12 home + (12 * 0.45 ))) Even if all 20 of McCann’s home runs were hit at home and we boost that by the 45 percent park factor, he only comes in at 29. It’s possible the 20-homer projection is low, but even after the most generous math, McCann still comes in under 35 home runs.

McCann solves a very obvious problem for the Yankees, and he solves it very well. His contract wasn’t outrageous, and he should be productive for them at least for the first few years of the deal. But let’s not overstate how much McCann will benefit from Yankee Stadium. It’ll help, but it won’t be his Popeye’s spinach.

Reds place Devin Mesoraco on the disabled list with a torn labrum

Cincinnati Reds' Devin Mesoraco watches from the dugout during the ninth inning of a baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh, Saturday, April 30, 2016. The Pirates won 5-1. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar
Leave a comment

The Reds have placed catcher Devin Mesoraco on the 15-day disabled list with a torn labrum in his left shoulder, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reportsRosecrans adds that Mesoraco and the Reds will discuss whether or not the catcher will undergo surgery.

To fill Mesoraco’s roster spot, the club called up catcher Ramon Cabrera from Triple-A Louisville. Tucker Barnhart is expected to start the lion’s share of games in Mesoraco’s absence.

Mesoraco was scuffling prior to the injury, as he was batting a mere .140/.218/.160 with only one extra-base hit and one RBI in 55 plate appearances.

Dodgers’ Josh Ravin suspended 80 games for using a banned substance

Los Angeles Dodgers' Josh Ravin, right, reacts as New York Mets' Lucas Duda (21) runs the bases after hitting a home run during the seventh inning of a baseball game Saturday, July 25, 2015, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
Leave a comment

Update #2 (6:53 PM EDT): Ravin released a statement through the players’ union. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times provides it:

*

Update (6:35 PM EDT): MLB made the announcement.

*

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports is reporting that Dodgers pitcher Josh Ravin will be suspended 80 games after testing positive for a banned substance. When it is made official by Major League Baseball, Ravin will be the sixth major league player to earn a suspension after testing positive, joining Dee Gordon, Chris Colabello, Abraham Almonte, Daniel Stumpf, and Jenrry Mejia.

Ravin, 28, hasn’t pitched this year as he broke his arm in a car accident during spring training, but was expected to return before the end of May. He debuted in the majors last season, making nine relief appearances for the Dodgers. He yielded seven runs on 13 hits and four walks with 12 strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings. Ravin made 22 appearances for Triple-A Oklahoma City as well.

Ravin will be eligible to return in early August.

The Braves made a flurry of roster moves ahead of Monday’s game

Atlanta Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz throws against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning of a baseball game Thursday, Aug. 20, 2015, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh
Leave a comment

On the heels of Sunday’s transaction snafu, the Braves made a flurry of roster moves — seven, to be exact — on Monday, the club announced. Pitcher Mike Foltynewicz was recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett. The contracts of utilityman Chase d’Arnaud, outfielder Matt Tuiasosopo, and infielder Reid Brignac were selected from Gwinnett. Pitcher John Gant and utilityman Jace Peterson were optioned to Gwinnett. Outfielder Drew Stubbs was designated for assignment.

Whew.

Foltynewicz is starting Monday night’s game against the Mets, opposite Bartolo Colon. In four starts with Gwinnett, Foltynewicz put up a 2.05 ERA with a 20/14 K/BB ratio in 22 innings. Control has always been an issue for the right-hander, though he was able to limit the walks to 29 over 86 2/3 major league innings last year.

The Braves enter play Monday at 6-18, the worst record in baseball. The club is reportedly embracing the tank and is now trying to buy draft picks by taking on bad contracts.

J.J. Hardy to miss four to eight weeks with a hairline fracture in his right foot

Baltimore Orioles' J.J. Hardy watches his double during the second inning of a baseball game against the Boston Red Sox, Wednesday, June 10, 2015, in Baltimore. Delmon Young scored on the play. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
AP Photo/Patrick Semansky
1 Comment

Orioles shortstop J.J. Hardy is expected to miss four to eight weeks due to a hairline fracture in his right foot, MASN’s Roch Kubatko reports. Hardy suffered the injury fouling a ball off of his foot in the fourth inning of Sunday’s game against the White Sox.

The Orioles have some options when it comes to replacing Hardy. Third baseman Manny Machado could move to shortstop, his natural position, and Ryan Flaherty would cover third base. Paul Janish is another option, but he’ll be leaving Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday for the birth of his child. As Kubatko notes, both Pedro Alvarez and Chris Davis could also play third base in a pinch.

Hardy, 33, is batting .244/.291/.410 with a pair of home runs and eight RBI over 86 plate appearances to begin the season. That’s markedly better than the meager .219/.253/.311 line he put up last year.