The million fluky things that go into winning a World Series game

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– Allen Craig, hobbled by a painful foot injury that nearly ruled him out for the postseason, scored the winning run in the bottom of the ninth Saturday on the first ever obstruction call to end a postseason game.

– Craig scored because Jarrod Saltalamacchia, whom manager John Farrell forgot to take out of the game, made a wild throw to third that Will Middlebrooks, a mid-game replacement, couldn’t grab because he was more concerned with staying on the base than getting in front of the ball.

– Craig drew the throw to third because he got a terrible jump off second on Jon Jay’s grounder, freezing on the play even though he wasn’t supposed to be involved at all; he should have simply ran to third as soon as he saw Yadier Molina take off ahead of him. Had that happened, there’s no throw at all.

– Molina, who had the first hit of the inning, got his hit because Shane Victorino was playing no-doubles defense in right field. Had Molina hit the same ball in the sixth inning, there’s a good chance it would have been caught.

– Molina’s hit came off Brandon Workman, who actually got to hit in the top of the ninth in a tie game. Because manager John Farrell forgot to double-switch in the bottom of the eighth and have David Ross replace Saltalamacchia.

– That’s because Farrell wanted Workman to pitch two innings because he burned through his second and third best relievers, Craig Breslow and Junichi Tazawa, in the seventh.

– And that’s because Breslow gave up an infield single to Matt Carpenter on a ball that might have been handled by Stephen Drew at shortstop, except Drew had just replaced by a pinch-hitter. Breslow then hit Carlos Beltran on the elbow pad with a pitch. Beltran made no motion to avoid it, yet was awarded the base anyway. Had things turned out a bit differently in that frame and Breslow had stayed in, perhaps Craig would have pinch-hit then and not even have been available for the ninth. And had Farrell been able to get through the seventh using only one of Breslow or Tazawa, there’s a good chance Uehara finishes the eighth or is at least in there to start the ninth, since Farrell would still have one more guy he trusted in reserve.

– Middlebrooks was in the game because left-hander Kevin Siegrist pitched the seventh. Had Siegrist not given up a homer to David Ortiz in Game 1, he’s probably the choice to pitch to Ortiz and Daniel Nava in the sixth rather than Randy Choate. Because while manager Mike Matheny definitely wanted a lefty to face Ortiz, he didn’t want to risk Choate on the switch-hitter Nava; Siegrist would have been a much better choice to face him. And had Siegrist pitched then, Drew likely stays in to hit against a right-hander the following inning.

– Should I keep going? If Kolten Wong doesn’t steal second on a 2-1 pitch in the eighth, Beltran isn’t intentionally walked to send up Matt Holliday. Either Beltran could have done something good or he would have made an out, meaning Holliday would have started the ninth and the whole dynamic would have changed again.

– Blow it all up… the Cardinals were probably one hit away from knocking Jake Peavy out in the first inning tonight. Had that happened, not only might they have cruised to a victory, but it would have affected the whole Game 4 dynamic as well.

So many thousands of factors, whether it’s split-second decision on whether to try for the extra base or the bat connecting with the ball an inch farther up the barrel, determine the outcome of baseball games, yet we often try to boil it down to three or four. We guess and second guess, pretending that there’s only two outcomes for a play and that the outcome that results was destined to be the outcome all along (confirmation bias for the win!). The foul ball that lands a row into the stands precedes a two-run double. A 2-1 pitch that should have been ball three is judged strike two instead. Name it luck or something else, only a small portion of what actually goes into winning a baseball game shows up in the postgame recap.

And That Happened: Monday’s Scores and Highlights

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Here are the scores. Here are the highlights:

White Sox 7, Twins 6; Twins 10, White Sox 2: The Sox and Twins cancel each other’s win out in this twin-bill. Yolmer Sanchez homered and drove in four runs and Jose Abreu went deep in the first game, as Jorge Polanco hit a three-run homer in a losing cause. In the nightcap Jorge Polanco hit a three-run homer in a winning cause. Brian Dozier hit a three-run homer as well, while  Byron Buxton and Jason Castro each added a solo shot. The Twins have won five of six.

Orioles 7, Athletics 3: Adam Jones hit a pair of solo home runs, scored three times and went 4-for-4 on the evening while Jonathan Schoop added a three-run homer. Boog Powell hit a homer for the A’s. It was the first homer of his career, but the 134th time any Boog Powell hit a homer in Baltimore. The last time: September 28, 1974.

Dodgers 6, Pirates 5: Curtis Granderson hit a grand slam in the Dodgers’ five-run seventh — it was his second salami in the space of a week, one with the Mets, one with the Dodgers — and Yasiel Puig hit a solo homer in the 12th inning that put the Dodgers over. The Pirates have lost seven of nine.

Indians 5, Red Sox 4: Cleveland wins on a walkoff bunt from Roberto Perez + a Brock Holt throwing error trying to get the runner at third. That led to a celebration for Cleveland, but there was much to worry about too, as ace reliever Andrew Miller flashed low velocity before leaving with patella tendinitis in his right knee.

Diamondbacks 3, Mets 2: It was 1-1 after regulation but A.J. Pollock hit a two-run homer in the top of the tenth, which was better than Michael Conforto‘s solo shot in the bottom half, giving Arizona the win. There were 12 pitchers used in this game, obscuring the fact that Arizona’s Taijuan Walker (5.1 IP, 7 H, 0 ER) and New York’s Robert Gsellman (6.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER) pitched pretty darn well.

Mariners 6, Braves 5: Andrew Albers got the win — his second in a week after going four years since his last one — and he also (all together now) helped his own cause with an RBI on an infield single. Two sac bunts too, which is a pretty dang good day for an AL pitcher in an NL park. All the nicer that he did it against Atlanta, whose minor league system he had been in all season before an August 11 trade to Seattle. He pitched well there too, so you can imagine he wanted to show them.

Rangers 5, Angels 3: Cole Hamels allowed two runs on three hits over seven and Adrian Beltre hit a three-run homer. The loss dropped the Angels a half-game back of Minnesota for the second AL Wild Card. The Rangers are in the mix too, and they closed to within two games of the final spot. It’s pretty much chaos, however, as eight teams are within four games of each other in Wild Card contention. It’s gonna be a cluster for a good three weeks I suspect. Maybe longer.

Giants 2, Brewers 0: Chris Stratton and three relievers — one of which was Matt Cain, which is hard to get used to seeing in a box score — shut out the Brewers. Stratton’s six shutout innings added to six and two-thirds shutout innings in his previous start to give him a nice little streak. He only struck out one, however, which seems like a violation of the laws of physics in 2017.

Andrew Miller left Monday’s game due to reaggravation of patella tendinitis

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Indians reliever Andrew Miller lasted only six pitches in Monday night’s appearance against the Red Sox. He walked Mookie Betts on six pitches before being relieved by Dan Otero. Per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, Miller reaggravated the patella tendinitis in his right knee.

Miller, 32, missed a couple of weeks earlier this month with patella tendinitis. He was activated last Friday and got two outs in a scoreless appearance against the Royals that night.

Bastian pointed out that Miller’s velocity has been lower than usual. He averaged 92.1 MPH on his fastball on Friday and 90.1 MPH on Monday, well below his normal average around 94 MPH.

The Indians should have more on Miller’s status after Monday’s game or on Tuesday. The lefty is carrying a 1.65 ERA with a 79/16 K/BB ratio in 54 2/3 innings on the season.