Clayton Kershaw has never started on three days’ rest. Now the Dodgers are asking him to do just that in Monday’s Game 4 against the Braves. Rather than trust Ricky Nolasco to close out the series, they’re going to bank on their ace who is about to win his second Cy Young Award.
In a vacuum, I’m down with that. I like the Dodgers’ chances a little better tonight with Kershaw going. But, then, I liked their chances just fine anyway.
One big complication here: Kershaw threw 126 pitches over seven innings in his Game 1 victory. That’s his second highest total ever as a pro. It wasn’t the most strenuous of 126-pitch outings — the Dodgers won 6-1 — but I’d feel better about things if he had thrown 100-110 pitches instead.
All things considered, this might be the most fatigued start of Kershaw’s life. He’s already thrown 243 innings this year, and now he’s on three days’ rest after an unusually lengthy outing. And with that fatigue has to come an increased risk of injury. Whether that increase is one percent, 10 percent or 100 percent, I won’t claim to know, but it’s there. The safer play would be to let Kershaw pitch on extra rest in a possible Game 5.
By making the switch mere hours before the game, the Dodgers are also showing just how little faith they have in Nolasco. And that’s dangerous with the hope of two potential seven-game series coming up. They’re going to need Nolasco if they intend to win the World Series. Now, if he ever does get the chance to start in the NLDS, it’ll come nearly three weeks after his last start on Sept. 25.
There are also question marks about Hyun-Jin Ryu’s health that could make Nolasco doubly important.
One plus for the Dodgers here is that moving up Kershaw doesn’t tax the rotation further. That Zack Greinke can start Game 5 on normal rest was likely a factor in the choice. It’s not like they need multiple guys to start on short rest.
Still, I don’t like it. With Atlanta starting Freddy Garcia, I think the Dodgers would have won tonight with Nolasco, leaving them much better set up for the NLCS. They just don’t gain enough in making the switch to justify the risk.
According to Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post, Nationals infielder Danny Espinosa declined to attend the team’s annual Winterfest because of his dissatisfaction with management following their trade for outfielder Adam Eaton.
A source told Castillo that Espinosa’s unhappiness stemmed from a belief that the acquisition would jeopardize his starting role in 2017. With Eaton in center field, Trea Turner will likely return to his post at shortstop, leaving Espinosa out in the cold — or, as the case may be, on the bench. The move shouldn’t come as a big surprise to Espinosa, however, as Nationals’ GM Mike Rizzo spoke to the possibility of trading the infielder or reassigning him to a utility role back in early November.
Offensively, the 29-year-old had a down year in 2016, slashing just .209/.306/.378 with 24 home runs in 601 PA. Defensively, he still profiles among the top shortstops in the National League, with eight DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and 8.3 Def (Defensive Runs Above Average) in his seventh year with the club.
Espinosa will reach free agency after the 2017 season.
The Red Sox might be trying to move the wrong pitcher, according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo. Cafardo revealed that while the Sox have been trying to market right-hander Clay Buchholz, more teams would be interested in trades involving southpaw Drew Pomeranz.
The club appears reluctant to deal Pomeranz, especially because his price tag comes in at a cool $4.7 million to Buchholz’s $13.5 million in 2017. Those who have already expressed interest in the veteran hurlers, including the Twins, Mariners and Royals, also seem put off by Buchholz’s salary requirements as he enters his 32nd year.
Health could be another factor preventing teams from jumping to make trade offers, as Cafardo quotes an AL executive who believes the “medicals on both Pomeranz and Buchholz probably aren’t that great.” Neither pitcher suffered any major injuries during the 2016 season, though Pomeranz missed just over a week of play due to forearm soreness.
Pomeranz outperformed his fellow starter in 2016, pitching to a 3.32 ERA and career-best 9.8 K/9 through 170 2/3 innings with the Padres and Red Sox. He got off to an exceptionally strong start in San Diego, where his ERA dropped to 2.47 through the first half of the year before the Padres dealt him to Boston for minor league right-hander Anderson Espinoza. Buchholz, on the other hand, struggled with a 4.78 ERA and saw a decline in both his BB/9 and K/9 rates as he worked out a career-low 1.69 K/BB through 139 1/3 innings with the Sox.