Looking ahead to ALDS Game 2: Rays-Red Sox

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Behind a solid start from Jon Lester and a whole lot of offense, the Red Sox blew out the Rays in Game 1 of the ALDS yesterday by the score of 12-2. The two teams will meet again today at Fenway Park at 5:30 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on TBS.

Here’s a quick look at the pitching matchup and some random notes:

John Lackey will get the ball for the Red Sox following a resurgent season in which he posted a 3.52 ERA and 161/40 K/BB ratio over 189 1/3 innings. The 34-year-old has been especially effective at home this season, compiling a 2.78 ERA in 16 starts at Fenway Park compared to a 4.35 ERA in 13 starts on the road. Lackey made two starts against the Rays during the regular season and was knocked around pretty good, allowing nine runs on 19 hits (including two home runs) and two walks over nine innings.

Coming off a complete game victory in Monday’s tiebreaker game against the Rangers, David Price will start for the Rays. The southpaw finished the regular season with a 3.33 ERA and 151/27 K/BB ratio in 186 2/3 innings. He has thrived at Fenway Park during his career, including a 1.21 ERA and 20/2 K/BB ratio in 22 1/3 innings across three starts this season.

As for Boston’s lineup, the big change for Game 2 is that David Ross will start behind the plate and catch Lackey while Jarrod Saltalamacchia will take a seat. Meanwhile, Jonny Gomes is expected to remain in left field with another left-hander on the mound for Tampa Bay.

Not surprisingly, Rays manager Joe Maddon figures to tinker with his lineup a bit more. Jose Molina caught most of Price’s starts during the regular season, so look for him to play rather than Game 1 catcher Jose Lobaton. We’ll also likely see David DeJesus in left field (and possibly in the leadoff spot) while Sean Rodriguez figures to take a seat with a right-hander on the mound for Boston. With Maddon’s penchant for mixing-and-matching, other changes are possible.

MLB Network airs segment listing “good” and “bad” $100 million-plus contracts

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On Wednesday evening, Charlie Marlow of KTVI FOX 2 News St. Louis posted a couple of screencaps from a segment MLB Network aired about $100 million-plus contracts that have been signed. The list of “bad” contracts, unsurprisingly, is lengthier than the list of “good” contracts.

As Mike Gianella of Baseball Prospectus pointed out, it is problematic for a network owned by Major League Baseball to air a segment criticizing its employees for making too much seemingly unearned money. There’s a very clear conflict of interest, so one is certainly not getting a fair view of the situation. MLB, of course, can do what it wants with its network, but it can also be criticized. MLB Network would never air a similar segment in which it listed baseball’s “good” and “bad” owners and how much money they’ve undeservedly taken. Nor would MLB Network ever run a segment naming the hundreds of players who are not yet eligible for arbitration whose salaries are decided for them by their teams, often making the major league minimum ($545,000) or just above it. Similarly, MLB Network would also never think of airing a segment in which the pay of minor league players, many of whom make under $10,000 annually, is highlighted.

We’re now past the halfway point in January and many free agents still remain unsigned. It’s unprecedented. A few weeks ago, I looked just at the last handful of years and found that, typically, six or seven of the top 10 free agents signed by the new year. We’re still at two of 10 — same as a few weeks ago — and that’s only if you consider Carlos Santana a top-10 free agent, which is debatable. It’s a complex issue, but part of it certainly is the ubiquity of analytics in front offices, creating homogeneity in thinking. A consequence of that is everyone now being aware that big free agent contracts haven’t panned out well; it’s a topic of conversation that everyone can have and understand now. Back in 2010, I upset a lot of people by suggesting that Ryan Howard’s five-year, $125 million contract with the Phillies wouldn’t pan out well. Those people mostly cited home runs and RBI and got mad when I cited WAR and wOBA and defensive metrics. Now, many of those same people are wary of signing free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer and they now cite WAR, wOBA, and the various defensive metrics.

The public’s hyper-sensitivity to the viability of long-term free agent contracts — thanks in part to segments like the aforementioned — is a really bad trend if you’re a player, agent, or just care about labor in general. The tables have become very much tilted in favor of ownership over labor over the last decade and a half. Nathaniel Grow of FanGraphs pointed out in March 2015 that the players’ share of total league revenues peaked in 2002 at 56 percent, but declined all the way to 38 percent in 2014. The current trend of teams signing their talented players to long-term contract extensions before or during their years of arbitration eligibility — before they have real leverage — as well as teams abstaining from signing free agents will only serve to send that percentage further down.

Craig has written at great length about the rather serious problem the MLBPA has on its hands. Solving this problem won’t be easy and may require the threat of a strike, or actually striking. As Craig mentioned, that would mean getting the players all on the same page on this issue, which would require some work. MLB hasn’t dealt with a strike since 1994 and it’s believed that it caused a serious decline in interest among fans, so it’s certainly something that would get the owners’ attention. The MLBPA may also need to consider replacing union head Tony Clark with someone with a serious labor background. Among the issues the union could focus on during negotiations for the next collective bargaining agreement: abolishing the draft and getting rid of the arbitration system. One thing is for sure: the players are not in a good spot now, especially when the league has its own network on which it propagandizes against them.