strasburg getty

No, the Strasburg shutdown in 2012 is not why the Nats missed the playoffs in 2013

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The worst part of narrative-driven sports journalism is that it usually results in those who engage in it bending the facts to fit the narrative rather than identifying a narrative that springs logically from those facts. As an example I give you John Feinstein’s column on the Nats. Which came out today, but which you know he wrote a long time ago:

And now it can be said, with almost no doubt, that the decision to shut Stephen Strasburg down last September didn’t cost Washington one chance to win a World Series, it cost the team and the city two chances. Because if one thing is clear about the debacle that was this summer it is that it was set up by the disaster of last fall.

The evidence of this, apart from Feinstein’s assertion that it is self-evident, is not provided. He spends a lot of time on the idea that the Rafael Soriano signing was a slight to Drew Storen which in turn caused clubhouse strife. There is some truth to that, but based on how Storen pitched this year the strife was well-earned. Still, I don’t know what that has to do with Strasburg. Maybe he feels like the lack of Strasburg in Game 5 of last year’s NLDS led to the Storen breakdown. I have no idea, but there is not much else there other than talk of mojo, hubris, karma and all of that kind of nonsense linking the Strasburg shutdown decision in 2012 to the Nationals’ underperformance in 2013.

Which is understandable given that there were a whole host of things that happened in 2013 that led to the Nationals’ underperformance in 2013.

The offense took a step back this year, with many hitters who helped the team win the division in 2012 having worse years in 2013. Adam LaRoche dropped over 100 points of OPS. Danny Espinosa fell off a cliff. Denard Span represented a huge downgrade on offense from Mike Morse. Steve Lombardozzi was somehow given over 400 plate appearances, showing just how thin the Nats’ bench was (or how sub-optimally it was deployed by Davey Johnson). Bryce Harper’s overall numbers were excellent, but an insane start was responsible for much of that, followed by months in which he was hurt. It was an offense that had its moments, especially late in the season, but which fought inconsistency for most of the year.

The pitching had its rough patches as well, with Dan Haren’s first half looking like a car wreck. Ross Detwiler took a step back. Feinstein’s allegedly wronged man, Drew Storen, pinched off a 4.68 ERA. Yes, I suppose him being demoted made Tyler Clippard mad that one day, but keeping him in high-leverage situations would have led to far more anger among Nats fans. Beyond that, the Nats led the National League in ERA in 2012. They were sixth in 2013. Not terrible, but enough to explain a multi-game drop in the standings.

Even if you want to get into the karma/chemistry mumbo-jumbo to explain this season you’d be better off looking at the tone set by Davey Johnson — never particularly urgent, even when the team was spiraling — than you would at a pitcher-usage decision made over a year ago. I don’t put too much stock in that, but at least it’s something which actually affected this year’s Nats club.

Look, I wasn’t a fan of the Strasburg shutdown last year. I think it would have been nice to have him around in the NLDS and I think that Mike Rizzo’s ultimate decision to shut him down was just as much a function of Rizzo being stubborn or else feeling he had painted himself into a corner as it was based on sound injury prevention techniques. But even as a pretty persistent Rizzo critic on this point, I can’t see how on Earth one can make a straight-faced claim that the fate of the 2013 Nationals was even moderately dependent upon the Strasburg decision. Even remotely, actually.

I feel like Feinstein has been waiting for a long time to say “ah-ha!” to Rizzo about the Strasburg decision. And that he does today, regardless of the baseball facts which relate to the Nationals this year. But hey, narrative-driven analysis about curses and karma are the stuff of highly-paid columns and book deals, not baseball facts.

UPDATE: The Post’s Adam Kilgore — who covers the Nationals day-in, day-out — totally dismantles Feinstein’s column. Beautiful.

And That Happened: Thursday’s scores and highlights

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Here are the scores. Here are the highlights:

Rays 2, Red Sox 1Mikie Mahtook had been hitless in 34 straight at-bats before hitting a go-ahead double in the seventh. If it first you don’t succeed, try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try try again.

Nationals 4, Orioles 0: The Nats break a four game losing streak thanks to Max Scherzer‘s eight shutout innings and ten strikeouts. Jayson Werth homered in the fourth and Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper each doubled home run(s) in the eighth. Moral victory for the Orioles, though, in trotting out Ubaldo Jimenez and seeing him actually pitch well (6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER) instead of watching him start a tire fire.

Angels 6, Blue Jays 3: A 3-for-4, 4 RBI night for Mike Trout, which puts his batting line at .316/.432/.555. He’s on a pace for 30+ homers, 100+ RBI, nearly 30 stolen bases, leads the league in walks and, as always, has been playing gold glove-caliber defense. My guess is that he finishes third or fourth in MVP balloting.

Mets 10, Cardinals 6Alejandro De Aza hit a three-run homer and drove in five runs in all. That homer doesn’t happen at all if the Cards record out number three on the play before. Which they almost did and would have if not for one of the strangest dang plays you’ll ever see.

Rangers 9, Indians 0: Cole Hamels goes eight shutout innings and allows only two hits to win his 14th game and lower his ERA to 2.67 but, nah, he’s not an ace. Carlos Gomez homered in his first game as a Ranger. Can you imagine the agita Astros fans will feel if Gomez rakes down the stretch for Texas after stinkin’ up the joint as an Astro? In other news, Adrian Beltre drove in three and Jason Kipnis had a lot of fun with Rougned Odor. I’m sure Jose Bautista finds absolutely NOTHING funny about it at all.

Pirates 3, Brewers 2: Andrew McCutchen hit a home run and a pair of RBI singles, one of which proved to be the game-winner in the tenth. Pittsburgh breaks a nine-game losing streak in Miller Park.

Giants 4, Dodgers 0: Obviously the big story here — the one that will lead headlines everywhere this morning — was Matt Moore’s near-no-hitter. I mean, what else could there possibly be to take away from this ga–

Yes. That was EXACTLY the story of this game.

Braves 3, Diamondbacks 1: Lost in Moore’s near no-hit bid was Matt Wisler’s. The Braves starter didn’t allow a hit until the seventh inning and allowed only two overall, producing one run, in eight total innings. Freddie Freeman took a bad tumble trying to make a catch in the stands, smacking his back on an empty seat:

He stayed in the game, but man, that’s one that could’ve been way, way worse.

White Sox 7, Mariners 6: Todd Frazier struck out in his first three at-bats but made his last two count. Frazier tied the game up with an RBI single in the seventh inning and won it with a walkoff single down the left-field line in the ninth. Also in the ninth: three fans running on the field in two separate incidents. David Robertson was on the mound and he didn’t much care for the interruptions:

“The first two guys I was like, `Ok. All right. They’ve got it under control,” Robertson said. “The next guy, I got a little angry there.”

More like Guaranteed Irate field, amirite?

Royals 5, Marlins 2: Alcides Escobar homered, doubled, and drove in two runs but, wow, Jarrod Dyson, man:

Tigers 8, Twins 5: James McCann had four hits including a three-run homer as the Motor City Kitties sweep the Twinkies (note: if MLB is serious about getting young people into the game, all team names should be changed to their cutest possible variants, thereby securing the hearts and fandom of the five-year-old set).

Moore loses no-hitter with 2 outs in 9th, Giants top Dodgers

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LOS ANGELES (AP) San Francisco lefty Matt Moore lost his no-hit bid with two outs in the ninth inning on a soft, clean single by Corey Seager, and the Giants beat the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-0 Thursday night.

Moore’s try ended on his 133rd pitch. It was Seager Bobblehead Night at Dodger Stadium, and a sellout crowd cheered Moore after the ball plopped onto the grass in shallow right field.

Moore was pulled immediately. Giants manager Bruce Bochy had been pacing in the dugout for a couple of innings as Moore’s pitch count climbed – he missed most of the last two seasons after Tommy John surgery.

Giants center fielder Denard Span sprinted for two outstanding catches, including a leadoff grab in the ninth, to give Moore a chance.

Moore earned his first win for the Giants since they got him in a trade with Tampa Bay on Aug. 1.

The 27-year-old Moore nearly gave San Francisco a major league record five straight years with a no-hitter. And he almost became the first Giants pitcher to no-hit the archrival Dodgers since 1915, when New York’s Rube Marquard stopped Brooklyn.

Moore struck out seven and walked three. Reliever Santiago Casilla needed just one pitch to get the final out.

The win moved the Giants within two games of the NL West-leading Dodgers.