A Requiem for Jeff Francoeur

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Joe Posnanski looks back at the illustrious career of the recently-DFA’d Jeff Francoeur and pretty much groks the essence:

Jeff Francoeur is one of the greatest guys in baseball. Everybody thinks so. He’s always smiling. He’s always friendly. On the field, he always tries. Lord, he tries. Runs out those grounders. Throws home with gusto. Off the field he’s always doing something cool like signing an autograph or chatting up a kid or appearing at a charity event or helping a teammate or talking to a young reporter who was nervously looking for someone to talk with. When you’re a kid, you might imagine how you would act as a big league ballplayer — and you would probably be imagining the life of Jeff Francoeur.

Well, you probably would imagine yourself a better hitter — which is the real life part of the story.

There’s a part of the Francoeur mythos that goes “the media loved him so they talked him up big all the time and overlooked his weaknesses.” And there is a lot of truth to that. But the media didn’t sign him to contracts, trade for him or give him far more plate appearances than he deserved over the years. That was on the Braves, Mets, Rangers and Royals. Certainly professional teams aren’t dazzled by a great personality and thus fooled into poor baseball decisions, are they?

I don’t think so. Rather, I think teams are victims of a different kind of delusion. The delusion of a breakout performance like Francoeur had as soon as he was called up in 2005.

Francoeur has stunk far more than he’s prospered, and the reason he’s been allowed to do so is because — at least in my opinion — good first impressions outweigh the bulk of one’s performance as far as baseball evaluators are concerned. Some of them — at least the ones who pulled the trigger on Francoeur — are prejudiced to assume that only great players can break out big, so Francoeur must be a great player struggling rather than a poor hitter who just lucked into some occasional greatness.

If a player with Francoeur’s same skills, such as they are, stumbled poorly for about 3,500 plate appearances to start his career he’d never get a chance to shine in those 1,000 plate appearances in which Francoeur did. Heck, he’d not even get the 3,500. But ooh, that chance of promise! It’s like plunking money into a slot machine you just saw pay off. That’s basically what GMs and managers have done with Francoeur since 2005.

But, contrary to my headline, I doubt it’s actually time for a requiem. Someone is gonna, once again, look back at how he did for a brief spell eight years ago and the half-season blips he’s had on occasion, assume that that — as opposed to the huge number of plate appearances in which he has been terrible — is the “real Jeff Francoeur” and sign or trade for him within the next week. You just know it.

Report: Qualifying offer to be in the $18 million range

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According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, teams have been told that the qualifying offer to free agents this offseason will be in the $18 million range, likely $18.1 million. The value is derived by taking the average of the top 125 player salaries.

At $18.1 million, that would be $900,000 more than the previous QO, which was $17.2 million. This will impact soon-to-be free agents like Jake Arrieta, Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, and Yu Darvish, among others. That also assumes that the aforementioned players aren’t traded, which would make them ineligible to receive qualifying offers. We’ve seen, increasingly, that teams aren’t willing to make a QO to an impending free agent and that trend is likely to continue this offseason.

The QO system was modified by the newest collective bargaining agreement. The compensatory pick for a team losing a player who declined a QO used to be a first-round pick. That was a penalty to both teams and players, which is why it was changed. Via MLB’s website pertaining to the QO:

A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections after the first round in the following year’s Draft as well $1 million from its international bonus pool. If such a team signs multiple qualifying offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well.

A team that receives revenue sharing will lose its third-highest selection after the first round in the following year’s Draft. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its fourth-highest remaining pick.

A team that neither exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season nor receives revenue sharing will lose its second-highest selection after the first round in the following year’s Draft as well as $500,000 from its international bonus pool. If it signs two such players, it will also forfeit its third-highest remaining pick.

Additionally, if a player who rejected a QO signs a guaranteed contract worth at least $50 million and came from a team that receives revenue sharing, that previous team will receive a compensatory pick immediately following the first round in the ensuing draft. If the contract is less than $50 million, that team will get a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B. If the player’s team is over the luxury tax threshold, that team will receive a compensation pick following the fourth round. If that team neither exceeded the luxury tax nor receives revenue sharing, the compensation pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B.

Yeah, it’s a bit convoluted, but you do the best you can with a flawed system.

The Astros’ pursuit of Sonny Gray is “heating up”

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Jon Morosi of MLB Networks reports that talks are “heating up” between the Astros and Athletics on a Sonny Gray trade. Gray, obviously, would represent a big upgrade for the Astros’ rotation. He has a 3.66 ERA and has struck out 85 batters while walking 28 in 91 innings.

Morosi adds that Gray is not the only option for the Astros, as they are also talking to the Tigers about a potential acquisition of Justin Verlander and Justin Wilson. That would obviously be a much tougher deal to negotiate given Verlander’s 10/5 rights giving him veto power over any trade, not to mention the massive amount of money he’s still owed on his contract.

Also: I’m pretty sure that it’s in the MLB rules that any trade between the Tigers and the Astros has to involve Brad Ausmus, C.J. Nitkowski and Jose Lima, and that’s not possible given their current occupations and/or their deaths in 2010.