Is Manny Machado in the same echelon as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper?

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MASN’s Steve Melewski argues that Manny Machado should be considered in the same conversation as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper when it comes to the best young players in baseball. The Orioles’ 20-year-old third baseman is off to a fantastic start in 2013, carrying a .314/.356/.503 line through 166 plate appearances. By Baseball Reference WAR, he has been as valuable as Joey Votto and Troy Tulowitzki, among others, which ranks in the top-ten in baseball.

Putting him in with Trout and Harper, though? Melewski uses batting average, home runs, RBI, and doubles to make his case, which unfortunately leaves out base running and defense.

Melewski writes:

Did you know that through the first 84 big league games for each player, that Machado tops both Trout and Harper in batting average, homers, RBIs and doubles?

Well, he does, as found by Duquette, who is also heard on MLB Network Radio on Sirius-XM Radio. Here is the comparison:

Machado – .284 average, 12 homers, 47 RBIs, 20 doubles.
Harper – .258 average, nine homers, 29 RBIs, 16 doubles.
Trout – .282 average, 11 homers, 42 RBIs, 16 doubles.

Machado tops the dynamic duo in all four categories. Is there anyone out there that still doesn’t think he belongs in the conversation with Trout and Harper for best young player in baseball? He clearly stacks up with the other two.

Limiting to each player’s first 84 games is both arbitrary and unnecessarily reduces the sample size for two of the three players. Let’s go over all available data over their respective careers. (Warning: nerdiness ahead.)

The best all-encompassing offensive stat, in my humble opinion, is weighted on-base average (wOBA). It weights everything a player does by himself and is context-neutral (in other words, it doesn’t care about the inning, runner on base, outs, etc.). Trout is way ahead of the pack at .399, Harper is in second at .365, and Machado brings up the rear at .341. The MLB average is .315. The 58-point difference in runs between Trout and Machado, over Machado’s 368 career PA, is 17, which is huge — nearly two wins, or the equivalent of an average player by itself. The 24-point difference between Harper and Machado is seven runs over 368 PA.

Trout has also stolen 54 bases in 60 attempts (90 percent), Harper 19 in 27 (70 percent), and Machado six in seven (86 percent). In overall base running (which includes base-stealing), Baseball Prospectus credits Trout with 8.7 runs in 2012 and 0.1 runs in 2013 (8.8 total); Harper 5.4 and -0.9 (4.5); Machado -0.3 and -1.0 (-1.3).

Defense is tricky to gauge since even advanced metrics leave a lot to be desired in this area. There is no question that Machado grades highly in this area no matter which methodology you use — stats, scouts, your own eyes, etc. Baseball Reference credits him at 10 runs above average while Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) puts him at 12. Mike Trout is at +11 in center and +6 in left field over his career per BR, and +12 and +4 via UZR. Harper is +14 in center, +8 in right, and +6 in left via BR, and +10, -2, and 0 respectively, going by UZR. As good as Machado is defensively, he would have to be a whole lot better to make up for the lacking offense in comparison to Trout in particular.

Machado is a very good player with a bright future ahead of him. It is perfectly acceptable to appreciate that without exaggerating his prowess and neglecting two very important facets of the game. And it is still quite possible that Machado ends up having the better career when all is said and done, but right now, he doesn’t quite match up.

Giants remove pitching coach Dave Righetti

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After 18 years, 12 winning seasons, seven postseason runs and three World Championships, Dave Righetti is no longer a pitching coach for the Giants. He was removed from his post on Saturday, when the team announced a few reassignments as they shake up their coaching staff. Heading into the 2018 season, Righetti will serve as special assistant to general manager Bobby Evans, former bullpen coach Mark Gardner will step into a similar special assistant role to “assist in pitching evaluations,” and former assistant hitting coach Steve Decker will take a special assistant role in baseball operations.

According to MLB.com’s Chris Haft, Righetti was the longest-tenured pitching coach in the big leagues. He helped shape the careers of notable Giants’ aces like Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain — all Cy Young contenders (and, in Lincecum’s case, a two-time winner) at various points in their careers. He was there to assist Ryan Vogelsong during his stunning mid-career comeback in San Francisco. He helped newcomers like Chris Stratton and Ty Blach flourish even as the team stumbled to the bottom of the division. He was there to take the credit when a sterling rotation clinched the Giants’ 56-year, drought-snapping championship title in 2010 — and, when things went so horribly south in 2017, he took the blame as well.

Hardly anything went right for the Giants’ pitching staff in 2017. Madison Bumgarner was shelved after sustaining a serious shoulder injury in a dirt bike accident, Johnny Cueto couldn’t shake a cluster of blisters on his right hand and Mark Melancon found it difficult to justify a $62 million paycheck after pitching through an arm injury to four blown losses/saves and a 4.50 ERA. It would be a lot for any pitching coach to stay on top of, and given the team’s rapid descent from 2016 postseason contenders to last-place finishers in 2017, it’s not surprising that Evans felt the need to switch things up.

Successors have yet to be named for Righetti, Gardner or Decker, though Murray hears that the Giants could have interest in former major league pitching coach Jim Hickey. NBC Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic adds that Evans is searching for someone to “put a new voice” on the pitching staff and will likely target someone who, like Righetti, brings considerable experience to the role.