Rico Carty

Today that annual diversity-in-baseball study comes out. Take it with a serious grain of salt.

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Today is the day that the annual report from Richard Lapchick’s Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sports at the University of Central Florida comes out.  He’s been doing this for years, and it always gets highlighted in the media, with headlines about how the number of U.S.-born black players in baseball is declining.  Which, yes, it is.  But Lapchick’s report is also normally treated wholly uncritically, with his conclusions being parroted instead of reported, and it really grinds my gears.

It bugs me on a broad level, in that — as I’ve mentioned in this space several times — it looks at the trees but not the forest, noting that while, yes, there are fewer U.S.-born black players in baseball now than there used to, the overall diversity of baseball is up as the game becomes increasingly internationalized.

But it bugs me in a much sharper sense in that I believe the numbers Lapchick puts out are misleading.

They are misleading in that, while his current count of U.S.-born blacks in baseball seems right — he has it at 8.5% — the numbers he and others typically cite for the height of black representation in the game are usually off. He has cited as high as 27% of all players being black, and this number is often repeated as gospel, like it is in today’s USA Today story about it.

Thing is: these are apples and oranges measurements.  Back in the 70s when that 27% number came out, those numbers represented counts of all black players — or people who had sufficiently-black skin to be called “black” according to the view of those doing the counting. This included Latino players like Rico Carty, who happened to be born in the Dominican Republic. Today Carty — or, say, Aroldis Chapman or any other non-U.S.-born black player — wouldn’t be included in Lapchick’s count. Which makes sense because he’s counting only U.S.-born blacks. But he and his media surrogates freely cite the old numbers which did include Latino blacks back in the day.

Friend of mine and frequent HBT commenter Mark Armour is doing some research on this for the Society of American Baseball Research. I’ve not seen the research, but Tyler Kepner notes it in the New York Times today. Armour estimates that the actual height of U.S.-born blacks in the game came in the 1980s and peaked at 19%. See the update below for some of Mark’s additional comments on this.

No, that research does not mean that all things are wonderful. There clearly are fewer U.S.-born black players in baseball today than there were in decades past. But it’s not quite a crisis on the order of magnitude that Lapchick and others portray. And given that they’re not being particularly discerning with their numbers you have to wonder if either sloppiness or agenda-setting is taking precedence over science here.

And that’s my problem with it. Not the underlying idea — I want there to be more blacks in the game; heck, I want EVERYONE to play baseball and anything that can be done to promote it should be – but on the manner in which the problem is portrayed. A manner which seems more calculated to draw attention to the Institute for Diversity and Ethics in Sports than it does to the underlying issue.

UPDATE:  Mark Armour chimed in in the comments:

I am not exactly sure where the 27% number came from. My theory had been that the old data was from some newpaper story that counted all dark-skinned players as black, while the new data only counted US black players. However, several years ago this was explored further by the Wall Street Journal, and they determined that the old data is just … bad science. Really bad science.

The real drop in African-Americans (from 17-19% in the 1975-95 period) to half that today is significant enough without the bad data. Baseball is MORE diverse, of course, than every before.

By the way, MLB is very cooperative in the Lapchick study. In fact, they provide all of the data on opening day rosters to Lapchick every year. The writers that imply this is some sort of bigotry on the part of MLB are nuts. It is very clear that MLB is spending lots of time and money on this problem.

This is the WSJ story from 2008.

And That Happened: Wednesday’s scores and highlights

KANSAS CITY, MO - JULY 27: Manager Mike Scioscia #14 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim talks with umpires Adam Hamari and Dan Bellino as he protests Raul Mondesi's #27 of the Kansas City Royals two-run bunt single in the seventh inning at Kauffman Stadium on July 27, 2016 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
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Hi folks. Sorry about being gone for a few days. I was in New York, a place for which the phrase “nice place to visit, but I wouldn’t want to live there” was invented. It was nice to visit. I don’t want to live there. It’s like the people who say that know me.

Anyway, here are the scores. Here are the highlights:

Nationals 4, Indians 1: In nine of yesterday’s 15 games the losing team scored one run. Just warning you now, that’s gonna make for a lot of “[pitcher] tossed [X] [Y]-hit innings, allowing only [Z] runs . . .” summaries, with X being a number 6 or greater, Y being a number 6 or lower and Z being a value of 1 or 0. There could be a hit caveats addressed via “scattering” subroutine, but we’ll deal with that on a case-by-case basis. I realize that’s a lot of info you don’t need, but as I’ve been trying to automate “And That Happened” so it will live on forever, even past my death, these are the sorts of challenges I deal with. Anyway, Stephen Strasburg is the first to be plugged into this equation, having allowed zero runs on three hits over seven innings against the Tribe. He picked up his 14th win.

Marlins 11, Phillies 1: Here it was Adam Conley, tossing shutout ball into the seventh while scattering eight hits. He obviously had offensive help too, with Giancarlo Stanton providing enough for them to win the game with a first inning two-run homer followed by a lot of piling on. This from a team that was in an offensive drought just a couple of days ago.

Padres 8, Blue Jays 4Adam Rosales hit a two-run home run, Alex Dickerson and Brett Wallace each hit solo shots. The Padres have tied an NL record for consecutive games in which someone hit a homer. Because, of course, when you think “Padres” you think “power-hitting accomplishments.”

Tigers 4, Red Sox 3: I watched part of this game at a bar in LaGuardia waiting to fly home yesterday. Living in non-MLB cities for one’s entire adult life makes one forget that there are places where you don’t have to specifically ask for them to turn on a baseball game on the bar TV. Seriously, Columbus, Ohio sports bars will put on televised sports talk shows in which someone may mention college football in passing before showing the ballgame. All the better considering that the sound is off. And there’s nothing better than going into a bar in October and seeing five TVs with the random second-tier Thursday night Big West game and one with the frickin’ World Series on it. Anyway: Michael Fulmer pitched well until he ran out of gas on a hot afternoon, allowing the Sox to tie it late, but Miguel Cabrera saved the day with a ninth inning homer.

Rays 3, Dodgers 1: Matt Moore allowed one run in six and two-thirds but it was unearned thanks to it coming on a throwing error during a stolen base attempt. That error was by the catcher, Luke Maile, but he atoned with an RBI double in the fourth. Evan Longoria hit a two-run homer just before that.

Reds 2, Giants 1: Dan Straily outdueled Madison Bumgarner, allowing one run in seven and two-thirds to MadBum’s two — one earned — in eight. Jay Bruce‘s seventh inning homer broke the 1-1 tie in the seventh.

Rockies 3, Orioles 1: Jon Gray with one run over seven, allowing five hits. A pair of sixth inning homers from Nick Hundly and David Dahl were all the offense he needed.

Pirates 10, Mariners 1: Gerrit Cole pitched a three-hit, one run Maddux, needing only 94 pitches to do it. Andrew McCutchen and Jung Ho Kang each drove in four runs. It was pretty close until the seventh, but by then Cole could just throw it down the middle and dare the M’s to hit something. They didn’t.

Cardinals 5, Mets 4: Yadier Molina and Kolten Wong each hit RBI doubles in the ninth to rally the Cards from a run down. The Mets had their own rally in the seventh inning, scoring three to take the lead, capped by a Yoenis Cespedes homer off Adam Wainwright, but it was all for naught. This was Jeurys Familia‘s first blown save in almost a year. His streak began on July 30, 2015. Everything dies, baby, that’s a fact.

Cubs 8, White Sox 1: Another game that was close until late, at which point the Cubs broke out the boomsticks, getting homers from Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Addison Russell, whose bomb was a grand slam. Aroldis Chapman made his Cubs debut in a non-save situation. He struck out two of the three batters he faced and hit 103 on the gun. If the past few days have shown us anything it’s that Chapman tends to do best when he lets his pitching do the talking

Athletics 6, Rangers 4: Khris Davis homered twice, because that’s what Khris Davis does. This was his fifth multi-homer game this year. He has ten in his two full + two partial seasons. Both he and Coco Crisp hit two-run homers off of Matt Bush in the eighth. I guess if you’re Bush you can always say that whatever happened on the baseball field isn’t the worst thing to ever happen to you, but still, bad day for him.

Diamondbacks 8, Brewers 1: Yasmany Tomas had two homers and drove in five while Archie Bradley allowed one run over seven innings. The Brewers committed five errors, three by right fielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis and two by shortstop Jonathan Villar. I’m sure that made Craig Counsell super happy.

Braves 9, Twins 7: Freddie Freeman homered, doubled and drove in five in a game in which he reached base five times. After the game Major League Baseball’s scheduler was put on trail in front of an international tribunal at The Hague for putting this series on the calendar.

Astros 4, Yankees 1: Lance McCullers allowed one run over six and struck out ten. Colby Rasmus hit a two-run homer in the Astros’ three-run third. The homer broke an 0-for-29 skid for Rasmus. Or briefly interrupted a 1-for__ skid if he goes on another slump. Baseball is weird like that. It never ends and it allows you to frame anything in almost any way.

Royals 7, Angels 5: The Angels took a lead into the bottom of the seventh, but Kansas City scored six runs in the seventh and eighth. It wasn’t the longball, though: Raul Mondesi hit two infield singles in those innings which plated three thanks to throwing errors and the inherit chaos of speed. The first one was a bunt single and it was Mondesi’s first big league hit. It occasioned an over six minute replay delay, however, as Mike Scioscia thought Modesi ran out of the baseline and interfered with the throw to first. When he lost the replay he protested the game. Afterward he said “I would not have protested if I was not 100 percent correct on this.” Guess we’ll see.

Cardinals snap Familia’s saves streak, rally past Mets 5-4

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NEW YORK — Yadier Molina and pinch-hitter Kolten Wong each stroked an RBI double in the ninth inning, and the St. Louis Cardinals ended Jeurys Familia‘s streak of 52 straight saves in rallying past the New York Mets 5-4 on Wednesday night.

Yoenis Cespedes hit a go-ahead homer off Adam Wainwright to cap a three-run comeback in the seventh that gave the Mets a 4-3 lead. But then Familia, who hadn’t blown a regular-season save opportunity since July 30 last year, finally faltered.

Jedd Gyorko drew a one-out walk in the ninth and was replaced by pinch-runner Randal Grichuk. Molina hit the next pitch to deep center field, and Grichuk scored standing up to tie it.

Molina was thrown out at third by Familia (2-2) on pinch-hitter Jeremy Hazelbaker’s comebacker, but Hazelbaker stole second and scored when Wong lined a double just inside the left-field line.

Familia’s franchise-record saves streak was the third-longest in major league history behind Tom Gordon (54) and Eric Gagne (84).

Jonathan Broxton (3-2) tossed a scoreless eighth and Seung Hwan Oh got three quick outs for his sixth save.

Including a split of Tuesday’s doubleheader, St. Louis took two of three from the Mets in a matchup of NL wild-card contenders. It was only the second time in the past decade that the Cardinals have won a road series against the Mets.

Logan Verrett pitched seven efficient innings and slumping Neil Walker went 3 for 3 with a base on balls for the third-place Mets, who have alternated wins and losses in their last 13 games. They dropped 5 1/2 games behind NL East-leading Washington.

New York did manage to keep Gyorko and the rest of St. Louis’ hitters in the ballpark after the Cardinals had homered in 17 consecutive games – their longest streak since a club-record run of 19 games in 2006.

Gyorko went deep in both ends of Tuesday’s doubleheader, giving him seven homers in nine games.

Matt Holliday hit a two-run double off Verrett with two outs in the third, and Matt Adams followed with an RBI double that made it 3-1.

Wainwright, who entered 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA in July, nursed that lead until the seventh – repeatedly pitching out of trouble. He nearly did so again after striking out Curtis Granderson and Asdrubal Cabrera with runners at the corners.

But then Travis d'Arnaud scored on a wild pitch and Cespedes socked a two-run homer off the facing of the second deck in left-center on the 117th and final pitch from the 34-year-old Wainwright.