Expert on baseball’s TV money: “I am certain that at some point in the very near future, that balloon will burst”

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Baseball has been riding a wave of big money based on big TV deals, both local and national. The deals are paid for by cable TV customers whose bills keep going up and up. There are an increasing number of voices who believe we have a bubble on our hands and that bubble is bound to burst.  From Pete Kotz’s report in City Pages last week:

Today, the average TV bill rests at $86 per month, about half of which pays for sports programming. That’s more than double a decade ago. So it’s no coincidence that the cable and satellite industries have been jettisoning customers for nine years straight.

The new round of deals promises to hasten these unpleasant trends. “I can’t tell you what will be the trigger,” says Matthew Polka, president of the American Cable Association. “But I am certain that at some point in the very near future, that balloon will burst.”

And when it does, baseball will take the brunt of the explosion.

One has to be at least tad skeptical of this particular report given that it begins with what I feel is a fundamental misunderstanding of baseball’s relationship to television (i.e. national TV ratings are close to meaningless as a gauge for the health of televised baseball), but the nut of the article — cable bills can’t possibly keep going up at the rate they are to pay for all of these rights deals — seems pretty intuitive.

Indeed, as recent (and not-so-recent) history has shown us, no market spirals forever upward. There will be ruts at best, crashes at worst, and the balloons always pop eventually.

Baseball had best have a contingency plan in the event it happens to it as well.

Aaron Judge was involved in a weird play in the fourth inning

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Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge found himself front-and-center in a weird play in the bottom of the fourth inning during Game 4 of the ALCS on Tuesday evening. Judge drew a walk to lead off the frame. After Didi Gregorius lined out, Gary Sanchez flied out to shallow right-center.

Judge must have thought the ball had a high probability of falling in for a hit, so he was past the second base bag around the time he realized his mistake. He retraced his steps, running back to first base. Reddick’s throw hopped a couple of times but first base umpire Jerry Meals called Judge out on the tag-up play.

Manager Joe Girardi requested a review and the call was overturned: Judge was safe. However, Astros manager A.J. Hinch wanted to challenge that Judge did not re-touch second base on his way back. Rather than issuing a formal challenge, the Astros had to appeal the play by having starter Lance McCullers throw to second base, at which point second base umpire Jim Reynolds would issue a ruling. McCullers was a bit hasty, though, and made his appeal throw before Greg Bird stepped into the batter’s box. Reynolds told McCullers that he had to wait. So, McCullers again made his appeal throw.

This time, Judge was running and he was simply tagged out at second base for the final out of the inning. No need for a review.

As Ken Rosenthal explained on the FS1 broadcast, the Yankees were trying to “beat the police.” They knew Judge would have been ruled out — replays clearly showed he never re-touched the base — so they had nothing to lose by sending Judge. If he was safe, the Astros would no longer be able to appeal the play. If he’s out, then it’s the same outcome they would have had anyway.