2013 Preview: The HardballTalk staff predictions

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Oh, great Oracle. Tell us what the future holds!
source:

Actually, we’re usually way wrong with this stuff. All of us picked the Phillies to win the NL East last year and that didn’t work out too well.  But at least unlike a lot of outfits, we come back to these in October and remind everyone how wrong we were, so the wrongness of it is underscored all the more. If you can’t tell, we don’t take this exercise entirely seriously. No battle plan survives engagement with the enemy and such.

Whatever the case, it’s fun to try to predict the future, darn it, so here we are:


CRAIGsource:

NL East
Nationals
Braves
Phillies
Mets
Marlins

NL Central
Reds
Cardinals
Pirates
Brewers
Cubs

NL West

Giants
Dodgers
Padres
Diamondbacks
Rockies

AL East
Blue Jays
Rays
Yankees
Orioles
Red Sox

AL Central
Tigers
Indians
Royals
White Sox
Twins

AL West
Angels
Rangers
Athletics
Mariners
Astros

NL Wild Card: Braves, Cardinals
NL Pennant Winner: Nationals
AL Wild Card: Indians, Rangers
AL Pennant Winner: Tigers
World Series Champ: Tigers over Nationals

source:  AARON

AL East
Rays
Blue Jays
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles

AL Central
Tigers
White Sox
Indians
Royals
Twins

AL West
Rangers
Angels
A’s
Mariners
Astros

NL East
Nationals
Braves
Phillies
Mets
Marlins

NL Central
Reds
Cardinals
Brewers
Cubs
Pirates

NL West
Giants
Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Padres

AL Wild Cards: Angels, Blue Jays
NL Wild Cards: Braves, Cardinals
AL Pennant Winner: Tigers
NL Pennant Winner: Nationals
Word Series Champ: Nationals over Tigers

source:  JOE (only division winners because I sorta hit Joe up for his picks last minute)

NL East
Nationals

NL Central
Cardinals

NL West
Giants

AL East
Nobody. I’ll say Blue Jays for the fun of it.

AL Central
Tigers

AL West
Rangers

AL Wildcard: Angels and, yes, Royals. Why not?
NL Wildcard: Cardinals, Dodgers.
World Series Champs: Nationals over Rangers.


source:  D.J.

NL East
Nationals
Braves
Phillies
Mets
Marlins

NL Central
Reds
Cardinals
Pirates
Brewers
Cubs

NL West
Giants
Dodgers
Diamondbacks
Padres
Rockies

AL East
Blue Jays
Rays
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles

AL Central
Tigers
Indians
Royals
White Sox
Twins

AL West
Angels
Rangers
Athletics
Mariners
Astros

NL Wild Cards: Braves, Dodgers
NL Pennant Winner: Nationals
AL Wild Cards: Rays, Rangers
AL Pennant Winner: Tigers
World Series: Nationals over Tigers

source:  DREW

NL East
Nationals
Braves
Phillies
Mets
Marlins

NL Central
Reds
Cardinals
Pirates
Brewers
Cubs

NL West
Dodgers
Giants
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Padres

AL East
Blue Jays
Rays
Red Sox
Yankees
Orioles

AL Central
Tigers
Royals
White Sox
Indians
Twins

AL West
Angels
Rangers
Athletics
Mariners
Astros

NL Wild Card: Braves, Cardinals
NL Pennant Winner: Nationals
AL Wild Card: Rays, Rangers
AL Pennant Winner: Angels
World Series Champ: Angels over Nationals

source:  BILL

NL East
Nationals
Braves
Phillies
Mets
Marlins

NL Central
Reds
Cardinals
Brewers
Pirates
Cubs

NL West
Giants
Dodgers
D-Backs
Padres
Rockies

AL East
Blue Jays
Yankees
Rays
Red Sox
Orioles

AL Central
Tigers
White Sox
Indians
Royals
Twins

AL West
Angels
Rangers
Athletics
Mariners
Astros

NL Wild Card: Braves, Cardinals
NL Pennant winner: Nationals
AL Wild Card: Rangers, Yankees
AL Pennant winner: Blue Jays
World Series champ: Nationals over Blue Jays

source:  MATTHEW

NL East
Nationals
Braves
Phillies
Mets
Marlins

NL Central
Reds
Cardinals
Brewers
Pirates
Cubs

NL West
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
Diamondbacks
Rockies

AL East
Blue Jays
Rays
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles

AL Central
Tigers
Royals
White Sox
Indians
Twins

AL West
Rangers
Athletics
Angels
Mariners
Astros

NL Wild Cards: Braves, Cardinals
NL Pennant Winner: Braves
AL Wild Cards: Rays, Athletics
AL Pennant Winner: Blue Jays
World Series Champ: Blue Jays over Braves

That’s all, folks! Take ’em to the bank. Or don’t. You’ll do just as well either way.

The Yankees attendance and revenue is down, but it makes sense

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There’s a long article in the New York Times today noting that the Yankees attendance is down and that, based on financial figures released as part of their stadium bond disclosures, ticket and suite revenues through last season have fallen by $166 million since the end of 2009.

There is a lot of talk in the article about the exciting young team the Yankees have put together and how much they’ve won so far in the early going. And there is a lot of talk about marketing and demographics — Hal Steinbrenner talks about baseball’s “millennial problem” — but the story of the Yankees’ box office issues, such as they are, is pretty straightforward.

All teams suffer attendance and revenue decline when they play poorly. While the Yankees have not been bad for a long, long time, that’s a somewhat relative thing. They Yankees have sold themselves and sold their fans on the idea that nothing short of a championship is acceptable, so missing the playoffs for three of the past four years is bad for them. Fans don’t want to go see a bad team, be it Yankees fans, Rays fans, Royals fans or whoever.

Despite the recent lack of success, the Yankees have still, perversely, continued to price their tickets, concessions, parking and everything else as though they’re the only game in town. When demand falls and prices remain super high, fewer people are buying your product. Even if you’re the New York Yankees.

The Yankees are good this year. What’s more, they’re good in that exciting way that only young promising players bursting out onto the scene can deliver. It’s a wonderful thing for marketing and stuff, but even under the best of circumstances, ticket sales tend to lag on field success, often by as much as a year. Go back and look at World Series winning teams — especially the surprise winners — and you’ll see that it’s the year after on-field success when the real attendance bumps happen. I expect, if the Yankees continue to play well, their gate will get really nice by the end of the summer, but I suspect we’ll also see a more dramatic bump next year.

Taken all together, this is a dog-bites-man story. The Yankees are not some transcendent institution, immune from market forces. They’re just one of 30 Major League Baseball teams competing against other entertainments for a finite amount of the public’s money and attention. Nothin’ to see here.

David Price had a rocky rehab start last night

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Red Sox starter David Price has been rehabbing a left elbow injury since early March. Last night he made his latest rehab outing for Triple-A Pawtucket. It didn’t go well.

Price allowed six runs — three earned — on seven hits in three and two-thirds innings, requiring 89 pitches to do it. His velocity was good, but otherwise it was a night to forget. This was supposed to be Price’s last rehab start before returning to the Sox’ big league rotation, but one wonders if he’s ready for it.

Price didn’t talk to the media after the game, but Pawtucket’s manager said he was “upbeat” and “felt good.” For his part, John Farrell, upon hearing about the outing, said this:

“There’s no announcement at this point. We’ve got to sit with him and talk about what’s best for him, best for us as we move forward.”

The Sox could really use Price back in the rotation given their injury problems, but rushing him back if he’s not ready is certainly not ideal.

Stay tuned.