When we talk about WAR, we’ve historically been talking about two different metrics, actually. Because the two entities which developed and calculate WAR — FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com — have historically used two different values to determine the “replacement level” component of the stat.
While those of you who dig into these metrics with anything beyond a passing glance were aware of and made accommodations for this, it led to at least some confusion among more casual observers and led to a lot of potshots from the fans and the press looking to take issue with any stat more complicated than batting average. “Hey, why should we care about WAR if you guys can’t even agree what it is,” they would say, prior to coming up with some Edwin Starr/”what is it good for” bon mot which they believe to be original and clever.
Now, however: a grand agreement. From Dave Cameron:
You can calculate replacement level a number of different ways, but in the end, it always leads back to a number in this vicinity. Baseball-Reference arrived at a number a little higher than what Tango had used, while we came up with one a little lower. Because they were at opposite ends of the defensible spectrum, the different baselines gave a false sense of difference in the actual calculations. Now, with an agreed upon replacement level, those differences that are solely due to scale will go away.
There will still be some subtle differences in the ultimate calculation (read Dave’s post for more information on that) but now one big difference is gone, which should lead to a bit more harmony and less unnecessary strife when it comes to this stuff.
I’m sure some people will still take pot shots “Hey, if it’s so good, why do you have to tinker with it all the time!” they will claim, ignorant of how math and science work, but this is a good move.
(why the Mike Trout pic? Eh, didn’t want to use the calculator for two posts in a row)
Jeff Passan of Yahoo reports that the Kansas City Royals are trying to package Ian Kennedy in a potential Wade Davis deal. I’m not sure why they would do that.
Davis has had a relatively disappointing 2016 season. He strikeouts are down, his walks are up as is his ERA. Relative is the key word, though. After his transcendent 2015 season he had nowhere to go but down. He’s still a solid closer at worst and a dominant game-changer if/when he’s on and healthy. He’s also under team control through next season for a mere $10 million, making him one of the better superstar bargains in the game. The Royals were said to be asking a LOT for Davis, possibly more than the nice haul the Yankees got for Aroldis Chapman given that extra year of control. Maybe they can’t get what they’re shooting for with him, but they could probably get a lot.
Throwing Kennedy into a potential deal, however, obviously radically changes the potential deal. Kennedy has a 4.41 ERA and has allowed 26 homers this year, more than anyone in the game. He’s also on the first year of a five-year $70MM contract that includes an opt-out clause after 2017. It was a bad contract when he signed it and seems worse after four months of the 2016 season. If you want a team to take Kennedy along with Davis, you’re basically asking them to give you little if anything in the way of prospects for Davis. You’re asking them to give you Kennedy-salary relief in exchange for Davis.
Which is a good way to get rid of salary, I suppose, but sure seems like the squandering of historically overheated relief pitcher market which the Royals could take advantage of better than a lot of clubs.
The Miami Marlins have reinstated second baseman Dee Gordon from his suspension.
Gordon, of course, has missed the last 80 games while serving his drug suspension. He’s coming off a minor league rehab assignment and will be the everyday second baseman for the contending Marlins. He was hitting .266/.289/.340 with three doubles, two triples, five RBI, 13 runs scored, and six stolen bases in 97 plate appearances when he was popped. He was replaced by Derek Dietrich, who hit a nice .275/.366/.398 with 22 extra-base hits, 30 RBI, and 26 runs scored in 314 PA in Gordon’s absence, so don’t expect a tremendous upgrade at second down the stretch, even if they get a nice upgrade in the utility and depth department.
To make room for Gordon, the Marlins designated utilityman and sometimes hero Don Kelly for assignment. Sad jams.
UPDATE: Gordon issued a video apology on the eve of his reinstatement: