Bill James thinks Sabermetrics has overrated ground ball pitchers

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Rob Neyer expounded on a Bill James piece (here, behind a paywall) at SB Nation in which James says that proponents of Sabermetrics have “horribly overstated” the case for ground ball pitchers. He cites a handful of elite pitchers — Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, Randy Johnson, Justin Verlander, among others — and points out that they weren’t very good in the ground ball department. He also cites a handful of ground ball pitchers — namely Chien-Ming Wang and Brandon Webb — who have had serious issues with injuries.

What I have never understood about ground ball pitchers, and do not understand now, is why they always get hurt. Show me an extreme ground ball pitcher, a guy with a terrific ground ball rate, and I’ll show you a guy who is going to be good for two years and then get hurt.

[snip]

They’re great for two years, and then they blow up. Always.

The one exception to James’ analysis is, of course, Derek Lowe, who made at least 32 starts in each season from 2002-11.

I don’t think we have the capability to make a strong conclusion one way or another based on the quality of data we have right now. Presently, there is no differentiation between types of batted balls. There is a vast difference between a dribbler down the third base line and a screamer up the middle. FanGraphs differentiates between infield and outfield flies, which has helped us to better appreciate pitchers like Matt Cain and Jonathan Papelbon. No such distinction is made for ground balls.

There is no way of knowing now, of course, but there may be a link between injury risk and the types of ground balls a pitcher induces. Basing analysis on data that utilizes binary qualitative groups — “on the ground” and “not on the ground” — is far too broad.

(Tip of the cap to David Schoenfield at ESPN Sweet Spot for directing me to Neyer and James.)

Twins place Miguel Sano on the 10-day disabled list with shin injury

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The Twins have placed third baseman Miguel Sano on the 10-day disabled list with a stress reaction in his left shin, per the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E. Neal. Sano left Saturday’s game against the Diamondbacks after running out a ground ball double play in the fourth inning and was held out of Sunday’s lineup.

Sano, 24, is batting .267/.356/.514 with 28 home runs and 77 RBI in 475 plate appearances this season. The Twins are five back of the Indians for first place in the AL Central and currently hold a tie with the Angels for the second Wild Card slot.

Ehire Adrianza got the start at third base during Sunday’s win and could handle the hot corner while Sano is out. Eduardo Escobar could also get some time at third.

Buster Posey thinks Hector Neris hit him on purpose

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Giants catcher Buster Posey was hit by a pitch in the bottom of the eighth inning during Sunday afternoon’s series finale against the Phillies. It was a first-pitch fastball from closer Hector Neris, who had just entered the game. The Giants then had the bases loaded, but Pablo Sandoval struck out to end the inning and the Giants went on to lose 5-2.

After the game, Posey said he thinks Neris hit him on purpose, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Posey thinks Neris thought he couldn’t get him out.

Per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, Neris said “absolutely not” when asked if he threw at Posey on purpose. The rest of the Phillies clubhouse, per Zolecki, “Say whaaat?!”

Here’s a link to the video of Posey getting hit. Now that we have automatic intentional walks, pitchers don’t even have to risk throwing four pitches wide of the strike zone to intentionally walk a hitter, so if Neris felt he couldn’t get Posey out, there was still no need to hit him. Furthermore, Neris isn’t going to hit Posey to load the bases and put the go-ahead run on first in a 4-2 ballgame. Sandoval has been a much worse hitter than Posey, for sure, but Neris would lose the platoon advantage if he felt like facing Sandoval instead, anyway.

Getting hit hurts, so it’s understandable Posey may have been salty in the moment. But after the game, when the pain has subsided and he’s had time to think over everything, there’s no way Posey should still come to the conclusion that Neris was trying to hit him on purpose.