The State of Florida is now investigating Biogenesis, but it probably won’t matter for baseball

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Yesterday’s quite amusing editorial in which the Miami New Times stated its refusal to hand over its documents to Major League Baseball was notable for more than its fuzzy reasoning. It was notable because it revealed for the first time that the Florida Department of Health has opened up an investigation into the lab and its operator, Dr. Anthony Bosch.

Since that came out a number of heavy hitters including Buster Olney, Jeff Passan and others have noted that this could be the game-changer Major League Baseball needed. The argument: the government has subpoena power where MLB does not and that if there is to be a real investigation into what Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez and everyone else implicated did, subpoena power is what’s needed.

Which is true. But I think it would be a bad idea for anyone to hold their breath until the perp walks get going, the hearings convene and the bombshells get dropped.

The Florida Department of Health is the agency in question. No one at the Florida Department of Health is going to get a promotion for getting Ryan Braun suspended. More to the point, no one at the Florida Department of Health is going to be able to get its budget increased to accommodate the sort of nasty litigation and administrative fights it would have on its hands if it tried to bring in a parade of baseball players in some sort of proxy investigation for the benefit of Major League Baseball.  Even if some gunslinger at the Florida Department of Health was inclined to turn this into a baseball investigation, said gunslinger need only look at how poorly that all worked out for the grandstanding federal investigators and lawyers who went after baseball players in the past. Both in the p.r. department and the career advancement department, using government resources to do Major League Baseball’s job for it have been pretty ugly for them.

If you’re sitting in the Florida Department of Health, you’re sitting in a state where so-called anti-aging clinics like Biogenesis are on practically every corner and are patronized by a lot of older folks who vote.  Even if you want to do the noble thing and get rid of apparent shysters like Anthony Bosch, you don’t want to set precedents in which the public will come to expect you to subpoena patients and, ultimately, make it so they are disciplined at their places of work. Oh, and some local officials and others who care about tax revenus may want to have a word about you getting super zealous about closing down money making businesses unique to the state.

I spent most of my time in private practice, but I did spend most of a year in state government, counseling agencies like the Florida Department of Health and learning from lawyers who did that for far longer than I did. While it’s possible that they do things differently in Florida than Ohio, the smart money is on the Florida Department of Health investigating with a primary aim of permanently shuttering Biogenesis, punishing Anthony Bosch for administrative and, potentially, criminal violations and making sure Bosch is ridden out of the state on a rail.  If, in the meeting planning the investigation, someone said “when do we subpoena the patients and share the product of our investigation with their employer,” that person would probably be politely sent out for coffee and then marginalized going forward.

I understand the enthusiasm on the part of Major League Baseball and, it seems, on the part of some baseball writers to see the Florida Department of Health go after Ryan Bruan, A-Rod and everyone else, but really dudes, that’s not its job. And if it thought it was its job, any citizen of Florida should ask its government why in the hell believes such a thing.

Report: Rangers agree to six-year extension with Rougned Odor

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The Rangers have reportedly agreed to a six-year, $49.5 million extension for second baseman Rougned Odor, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The extension comes with a club option for a seventh year, Heyman adds.

It’s close to the six-year, $52.5 million extension Jason Kipnis netted with the Indians in 2014, a sum Odor was rumored to be seeking during contract negotiations over the last two years. Granted, the circumstances are a little different this time around. Both players signed extensions on the cusp of their fourth year in the major leagues, but at 27 years old, Kipnis was coming off of an All-Star campaign and a career-high 4.5 fWAR performance. Odor, meanwhile, saw mixed results in 2016, batting 33 home runs and putting up 2.0 fWAR while struggling to stay consistent at the plate and exhibiting poor defense.

According to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, Odor previously agreed to a $563,180 salary for 2017. Depending on when the extension kicks in, it should cover all three of Odor’s arbitration-eligible seasons and two seasons of potential free agency. The team has yet to confirm the extension.

2017 Preview: Minnesota Twins

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Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2017 season. Next up: The Minnesota Twins.

Which iteration of the Twins will we get in 2017? The second-place contenders of 2015, blazing their way through the standings with 83 wins and a handful of hot prospects? The burnouts of 2016, flopping to the bottom of the division with 103 losses and a lineup held in place by Brian Dozier and, well, Brian Dozier? Or something in between?

Finishing dead last has its perks, namely a first-round draft pick and the feeling that things can’t be quite as bad as they were the year before. Unfortunately for the Twins, the only major preparation they made for the 2017 season came in the form of a front office shakeup. Derek Falvey assumed control of the club in October, bringing GM Thad Levine into the fold in November as the club assumed a more analytics-friendly approach toward the rebuilding movement.

When it came to roster revisions, however, there wasn’t much moving or shaking this winter. Third baseman Trevor Plouffe, catcher Kurt Suzuki and left-handers Tommy Milone and Pat Dean vacated their spots on the roster. Falvey avoided some of the bigger bats and bullpen arms in free agency and opted to sign backstop Jason Castro and journeyman reliever Ryan Vogelsong instead.

By and large, the core of the Twins’ roster remained the same. Center fielder Byron Buxton, infielder/outfielder Michael Sano and right-hander Jose Berrios still form the nucleus of the club’s top prospects. Middle infielder Brian Dozier will also return in 2017, though he appears to be on borrowed time with the Twins after putting up monster numbers in the second half of 2016. Ervin Santana will head the rotation again, accompanied by fellow veterans Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes, while right-handed relievers Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Pressly and Matt Belisle and rehabbing lefty Glen Perkins attempt to prevent another bullpen collapse in 2017.

Without any major additions to the team (and, excepting the departure of Trevor Plouffe, any major subtractions), the Twins will look to their existing cadre of players for significant improvements in 2017. Miguel Sano is expected to take over third base in Plouffe’s absence, which will bring a welcome end to his short-lived and wholly unsuccessful experiment in right field. Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco and Joe Mauer should round out the infield, with Byung Ho Park and Kennys Vargas currently vying for a spot as the team’s designated hitter.

The lineup is still four or five or six sluggers shy of formidable, but if Dozier can be counted on to repeat his 42-homer, 5.9 fWAR performance from 2016, there will be at least one Twin worth intentionally walking in 2017. Neither Miguel Sano nor Byron Buxton have quite found their footing against big league pitching yet, and another year spent struggling in the majors could mean another year of sub-optimal run production for the team as well. Jason Castro, who grades as an above-average defender behind the plate, is unlikely to provide any additional pop for the Twins at the plate after slashing just .210/.307/.377 through 376 PA with the Astros in 2016.

The pitching department also leaves a little to be desired in light of the league-worst 5.09 ERA they amassed last season. A veteran-heavy rotation could get a boost from the addition of fifth-starter candidate Jose Berrios, who is thought to be the favorite after fellow rotation candidate Trevor May underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week. Right-hander Tyler Duffey and 23-year-old southpaw Adalberto Mejia are also waiting in the wings. Both have made convincing cases for their inclusion on the pitching staff this spring, but Duffey is coming off of a 6.43 ERA in 2016 and Mejia lacks some of the polish that Berrios offers. Still, stockpiling young pitching depth isn’t a bad thing, and could give the Twins a cushion in the event of injury or collapse down the stretch.

The bullpen outperformed the rotation in 2016, which is saying… something, though maybe not a lot. They still finished the year with a cumulative 4.63 ERA, good for last place among their American League rivals, and delivered just 2.1 fWAR while taking on the fourth-most innings in the league. The standout performer was 28-year-old righty Ryan Pressly, who worked a 3.70 ERA, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.0 SO/9 in 75 1/3 innings last year. In light of Ryan Vogelsong’s recent departure from the club, the Twins will round out their bullpen with left-hander Craig Breslow, who turned in a 4.50 ERA with the Marlins in 2016 and is looking for a bounce-back season of his own after reworking his delivery at age 36.

For now, it looks like Falvey and the Twins’ front office are taking a wait-and-see approach to the coming season, which bodes well for their long-term vision (assuming most of their young prospects pan out) and not so well for their chances of moving up in the division in the next year or so. That could change by the trade deadline if they can secure a worthwhile return for Dozier, though given the rumors of their understandably high asking price, it could take more than a few months to get a deal in place.

Even assuming that all the chips fall in the Twins’ favor in 2017 — prospects start hitting consistently, the rotation solidifies, and Falvey loosens the purse strings enough to net more established contenders — it’s difficult to imagine anything more than a fourth-place finish for the club as they continue to rebuild and regroup. Barring any major improvements on the inconsistent, if occasionally productive, lineup of 2016, another last-place finish feels imminent.

Prediction: Fifth place, AL Central.