crystal ball

Computer simulation has the Angels winning the World Series the most often

42 Comments

We live in a world where complex statistical models and sophisticated computer programs which internalize and process every conceivable baseball metric are openly mocked when they make predictions yet we are expected to take as gospel those predictions of 50 year-old baseball writers who think pleated Dockers are still in fashion and haven’t bought an album since Bruce dropped “Tunnel of Love.”

In light of that, I have no problem linking to a thing about a computer model from something called PredictionMachine.com which has simulated the 2013 baseball season 50,000 times:

PredictionMachine.com  has already played the 2013 MLB season 50,000 times before it’s actually played. The Los Angeles Angels win the World Series a league-high 12% of the time (6,153 of 50,000 times to be exact). The Detroit Tigers (10%), Washington Nationals (10%), Cincinnati Reds (9%), Los Angeles Dodgers (8%), Tampa Bay Rays (7%) and San Francisco Giants(7%) follow the Angels in championship likelihood. In the most open season we have ever seen at this point, no team has a greater than one-in-eight chance of winning it all and a total of 12 teams have a better than one-in-25 chance of winning the championship.

And that set of predictions may all be completely wrong. I just don’t expect them to be any more wrong than those of some scribe who pounded out his predictions on a 7 year-old Packard-Bell with his email username and password taped on little slips of paper above his keyboard in between complaining about TSA agents and his lack of proximity to an In-n-Out Burger, all the while telling me that he knows more about baseball than I do because he went to journalism school.

So, you go, Prediction Machine. I for one hail our new machine overlords.

Your 2016 Winter Meetings Wrapup

national-harbor
Gaylord National Resort
3 Comments

OXON HILL, MD — The 2016 Winter Meetings are over.  As usual, there was still no shortage of excitement this year. More trades than we’ve seen in the past even if there are still a lot of free agents on the market. Whatever the case, it should make the rest of December a bit less sleepy than it normally is.

Let’s look back at what went down here at National Harbor this week:

Well, that certainly was a lot! I hope our coverage was useful for you as baseball buzzed through its most frantic week of the offseason. And I hope you continue coming back here to keep abreast of everything happening in Major League Baseball.

Now, get me to an airport and back home.

Eighteen players selected in the Rule 5 Draft

rule-5
MLB
17 Comments

OXON HILL, MD — The Rule 5 Draft just went down here at National Harbor. As always, it was the last event of the Winter Meetings. As usual, you likely don’t know most of the players selected in the Draft, even if a couple may make a splash one day in the future.

In all, 18 players were taken in the Major League phase of the Rule 5. Here they are, with the name of the team which selected them:

Round 1
1. Twins:  Miguel Diaz, RHP, Brewers
2. Reds: Luis Torrens, C, Yankees
3. Padres: Allen Cordoba, SS, Cardinals
4. Rays: Kevin Gadea, Mariners
5. Braves: Armando Rivero, RHP, Cubs
6. D-backs: Tyler Jones, RHP, Yankees
7. Brewers: Caleb Smith, LHP, Yankees
8. Angels  Justin Haley,RHP, Red Sox
9. White Sox:  Dylan Covey, RHP, A’s
10. Pirates: Tyler Webb, LHP, Yankees
11. Tigers: Daniel Stumpf, LHP, Royals
12. Orioles: Aneury Tavarez, 2B, Red Sox
13. Blue Jays: Glenn Sparkman, RHP, Royals
14. Red Sox: Josh Rutledge, INF, Rockies
15. Indians: Holby Miller, LHP, Phillies
16. Rangers: Michael Hauschild, RHP, Astros

Round 2
17. Reds:  Stuart Turner, C, Twins
18. Orioles:  Anthony Santander, OF, Indians

For a breakdown of most of these guys and their big league prospects, check this story out at Baseball America. Like I said, you don’t know most of these guys. And, while there have been some notable exceptions in Rule 5 Draft history, most won’t make a splash in the big leagues.

Each player cost their selecting team $100,000. Each player must remain on the 25-man roster of his new club for the entire season or, at the very least, on the disabled list. If he is removed from the 25-man, the team which selected him has to offer him back to his old team for a nominal fee. Sort of like a stocking fee when you return a mattress or something. Many of these guys, of course, will not be returned and, instead, will be stashed on the DL with phantom injuries.

Aren’t transactions grand?