Computer simulation has the Angels winning the World Series the most often

42 Comments

We live in a world where complex statistical models and sophisticated computer programs which internalize and process every conceivable baseball metric are openly mocked when they make predictions yet we are expected to take as gospel those predictions of 50 year-old baseball writers who think pleated Dockers are still in fashion and haven’t bought an album since Bruce dropped “Tunnel of Love.”

In light of that, I have no problem linking to a thing about a computer model from something called PredictionMachine.com which has simulated the 2013 baseball season 50,000 times:

PredictionMachine.com  has already played the 2013 MLB season 50,000 times before it’s actually played. The Los Angeles Angels win the World Series a league-high 12% of the time (6,153 of 50,000 times to be exact). The Detroit Tigers (10%), Washington Nationals (10%), Cincinnati Reds (9%), Los Angeles Dodgers (8%), Tampa Bay Rays (7%) and San Francisco Giants(7%) follow the Angels in championship likelihood. In the most open season we have ever seen at this point, no team has a greater than one-in-eight chance of winning it all and a total of 12 teams have a better than one-in-25 chance of winning the championship.

And that set of predictions may all be completely wrong. I just don’t expect them to be any more wrong than those of some scribe who pounded out his predictions on a 7 year-old Packard-Bell with his email username and password taped on little slips of paper above his keyboard in between complaining about TSA agents and his lack of proximity to an In-n-Out Burger, all the while telling me that he knows more about baseball than I do because he went to journalism school.

So, you go, Prediction Machine. I for one hail our new machine overlords.

The Twins and Diamondbacks make a minor trade

Getty Images
Leave a comment

The Arizona Diamondbacks have announced that they’ve acquired minor league catcher John Ryan Murphy from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for minor league pitcher Gabriel Moya.

Murphy has played in 141 major league games across four seasons, three with the Yankees, one with Minnesota. He has spent the entire 2017 season at Triple-A, hitting .222/.298/.330 with four home runs and 27 RBI over 59 games. Which is not significantly different than what he did in the bigs. He’s 26 and will serve as organizational depth for Arizona.

Moya is a 22 year-old lefty who has been the closer for the Dbacks’ Double-A team. He’s had a fantastic 2017 season, posting a 0.82 ERA and a 68/12 K/BB ratio in 43.2 innings.

The Rays acquire reliever Dan Jennings from the White Sox

Getty Images
3 Comments

The White Sox have traded multiple relievers recently. They just traded another, sending lefty Dan Jennings to the Rays for first baseman Casey Gillaspie.

Jennings has a 3.45 ERA and a 38/19 K/BB ratio in 44.1 innings. He’ll likely serve as a setup man with Tampa Bay. He’s more than a rental, as he’s under team control for two more years.

Gillaspie, 24, is hitting .227/.296/.357 with nine home runs in 395 plate appearances at Triple-A. He hit much better in 2016 at Triple-A, however, and made it on some top-100 prospects lists. What the White Sox’ plans for him are with Jose Abreu around, however, are unclear.