Heading to Arizona for some Cactus League action

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It’s gonna be a lot of radio silence from me today as, by the time you’re reading this, I will be on an airplane heading west. Yep, it’s that time of year again. I’m off to spring training for the fourth straight year. And for the third straight year I’m doing it up Cactus League-style.

Some folks have asked me why I keep going back to Arizona instead of down to Florida. There are two answers, really. The first and most direct one being logistics. All 15 of the Cactus League teams play in the Phoenix metro area, and life is way better when you can stay in one hotel and not burn so much time crisscrossing a state to get to the next park.

But the better reason is simply the vibe, man. Sure, if you’re a partisan of a specific team and only want to check them out during spring training you’re best served going where your team is. And, having been there, I can tell you that it’s all kind of fun going to Fort Myers for the Sox or Twins, Clearwater for the Phillies, Lakeland for the Tigers and on and on.  But if you just want to soak up any kind of spring training action, Arizona is the place to go. You can wake up each morning and say “hmm, which park do I want to hit today?” and make up your mind over your huevos rancheros. You can also simply rack up a larger number of places and teams seen. And if you find a cool bar, a cool restaurant or a cool greasy spoon, you can keep going back, time and time again, if that’s what you’re into.

I’m into that. And this year — while still leaving some room for that breakfast spontaneity — I’m going to do my best to hit every park. The tentative schedule is as follows:

  • Today: Hohokam Park for the Cubs and Dodgers in Mesa, assuming no flight delays;
  • Thursday 2/28: Scottsdale for the Giants and Mariners;
  • Friday 3/1: Tempe Diablo for the Angels and Dodgers;
  • Saturday 3/2: Salt River Fields for the Rangers and Diamondbacks (grit warning);
  • Sunday 3/3: Camelback Ranch for the Dodgers and Indians;
  • Monday 3/4: Surprise for the Rangers and Padres;
  • Tuesday 3/5: Phoenix Municipal for the Athletics and … the Italian WBC team! Which should be fun;
  • Wednesday 3/6: Goodyear for the Indians and Dodgers;
  • Thursday 3/7: Maryvale for the Diamondbacks and Brewers;
  • Friday 3/8 Day: Probably Peoria for the A’s and Mariners; Night: Chase Field for the USA vs. Mexico WBC game.

Yes, that’s a lot of Dodgers, but I can’t really control who the visiting team is and, frankly, 85% of my time at a park is spent with the home team. And yes, I know I’m missing some teams — unless I change my mind I won’t be able to see if Jeff Francoeur is truly in the BSOHL or watch Shin-Soo Choo attempting to play center field — but those are the breaks. Like I said, this is all subject to change and, as has happened in years past, it may very well change. Except the pictures of equipment bags on the field. That never changes. Yes, I know I have a problem.

And by the way: if you’re in Arizona and find yourself at one of these places on one of these days, by all means, let me know and we can pull an impromptu HBT meetup. Probably the best way to track my movements and/or stalk me is to get my attention is on Twitter. You can follow me and reply to me here.  You can also send me an email by clicking the “Feedback” button on the upper right corner of the HBT main page. No love notes, though. Gleeman reads those emails too.

So that’s that. Next time I talk to you it’ll be on Mountain Standard Time, live from the Valley of the Sun.

A scout thinks the Astros strike out too much. The Astros have the lowest strikeout total in baseball.

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Great moments in scouting. MLB.com’s Richard Justice spoke to an unnamed scout about the Astros, currently holding the American League’s best record at 76-47. The scout said that the Astros strike out too much and it will catch up with them. Justice pointed out that the Astros have the lowest strikeout total in baseball. The scout responded, “I don’t believe that.”

Justice, of course, is correct. The average major league team has struck out 1,006 times entering Sunday’s action. The Astros have by far the lowest total at 827, followed by the Indians at 881 and the Pirates at 882.

This scout doesn’t represent all scouts, but this is one of the major problems that advocates of statistics were trying to highlight before Sabermetrics became popular a decade ago. It’s a pattern. Person believes thing. Person either cherry-picks evidence to defend belief or is shown evidence that belief is not factually true and ignores it. Person refuses to change belief, using one of many excuses.

The other problem this highlights is the fallacy of “the eye test,” which is shorthand for treating a scout’s observations as sacrosanct due to his or her experience and knowledge of the game. In this case, the scout ignored easily accessed information, went with his gut, and turned out to be completely wrong. Furthermore, if “the eye test” were legit, the scout would’ve known that, for example, Yulieski Gurriel and Jose Altuve hardly ever strike out (11.1 and 12.4 percent strikeout rates, respectively). In fact, no one on the Astros’ roster (min. 230 PA) has a strikeout rate above 21 percent; the league average is 21.5 percent.

This isn’t to impugn the practice of scouting as a whole. There are a lot of things scouts can tell you about a player that data cannot and that has value. But for easily-researched claims like “the Astros strike out too much,” there’s no reason to trust a scout over the stats.

Mets acquire Jacob Rhame from Dodgers

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The Mets acquired right-handed reliever Jacob Rhame from the Dodgers, the team announced on Sunday. Rhame is the player to be named later in the trade that sent outfielder Curtis Granderson to Los Angeles on Friday night. He’s expected to report to the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate.

Rhame, 24, pitched through his second Triple-A campaign with the Oklahoma City Dodgers in 2017, collecting two saves in 41 appearances and logging a 4.31 ERA, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.3 SO/9 through 48 innings. While his ERA saw a sharp spike from its modest 3.29 mark in 2016 (perhaps thanks in part to a midseason DL stint due to an undisclosed injury), he’s controlling the ball better than he has in several years and has drawn some attention with a fastball that occasionally touches 98 MPH on the radar gun.

The Mets’ bullpen hasn’t been at its finest over the last few weeks, ranking 16th among its major league competitors with a collective 4.50 ERA and 2.4 fWAR, but likely isn’t looking to add an extreme fly ball pitcher to its staff just yet. Until he gets his big league break, Rhame will beef up Triple-A Vegas’ relief corps alongside fellow right-handers Yaisel Sierra, Joe Broussard and Josh Ravin.