old TV

Could the Dodgers’ giant TV deal be the beginning of the end for giant TV deals?

57 Comments

We talk a lot about the skyrocketing TV deals baseball teams are getting from cable operators these days. One wonders, though, whether or not we’re witnessing a bubble that’s going to soon burst. If it does, we may look at the Dodgers’ new TV deal as the beginning of the end.

The Dodgers TV deal with Time Warner is reported to be upwards of $8 billion. To pay for that, Time Warner is going to charge other carriers (Direct TV, Dish Network, other cable systems) $4 or $5 per subscriber for the right to carry the new Los Angeles Dodgers network they’re operating, with those costs passed on to the other carriers’ customers. This is how all sports TV rights deals go. It’s just way bigger with the Dodgers and Time Warner.

Many — probably most — of the customers who are seeing their cable bill go up are not Dodgers fans. They just want to watch Nick Jr. or History Channel or BBC America or any number of other channels. But, because you can’t (for the most part anyway) pick and choose which channels you get, the non-sports watchers are helping subsidize the sports watchers. Again, this is how it always works, but this time the rate hikes in question are going to be quite large.

Joe Flint and Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times write about this today, and they talk to one former TV executive who thinks that such a pattern is unsustainable:

But non-sports fans and pay TV companies are increasingly frustrated at having to pick up the tab for big sports deals. There have been calls to sell sports channels “a la carte,” or separately from other programming.

The Dodger agreement with Time Warner Cable may be a tipping point.

“That is the solution everyone should be looking at seriously,” said Derek Chang, a former senior executive at satellite broadcaster DirecTV. Such a move, he added, may be the only way to lower the cost of TV sports. “Ultimately the market for fees would then reset.”

All it takes is a political groundswell — and someone talking about how we should think of the children who just want to watch “Spongebob” is a great way to get that going — for Congress to wade in and either begin legislating or begin threatening to legislate with respect to cable TV in such a way that a la carte pricing becomes available.  If it does, companies in Time Warner’s position won’t be able to demand across-the-board rights fees like they are now and, in turn, they won’t be able to offer sports teams like the Dodgers the billions of dollars in rights fees like they’re currently doing.

If that bubble bursts, down with it comes the TV money. Then down go the franchise values, which are escalating due to the TV money sports teams are attracting. If team values go down, team payrolls will eventually come down too.  No aspect of baseball finances would be untouched by it.

Will it happen? I don’t know. And if it does, I don’t know when. But I also know that no bubble in history has ever failed to burst, and that when they do burst, the bubbles tend to take down just about everyone.

Settling the Scores: Sunday’s results

ST. LOUIS, MO - JULY 24: Starter Mike Mayers #59 of the St. Louis Cardinals pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the first inning at Busch Stadium on July 24, 2016 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images)
Scott Kane/Getty Images
Leave a comment

Craig’s off through Wednesday, so it looks like it’s just you and me again.

Mike Mayers made his major league debut, starting for the Cardinals during Sunday night’s nationally broadcast game against the Dodgers. The 24-year-old must have felt like he was in a horror film, as the Dodgers tore him down limb-by-limb. Chase Utley led off the top of the first inning with a single. Corey Seager followed up with a single of his own and Justin Turner drew a walk. Adrian Gonzalez promptly unloaded the bases with a grand slam on a 2-2 slider, putting the Dodgers up 4-0 before Mayers was able to record the first out. Opposing starter Scott Kazmir would tack on two more runs with a single before Mayers could escape the inning.

Mayers got Seager out to start the top of the second inning, but back-to-back singles by Turner and Gonzalez followed by a three-run home run to Howie Kendrick would end the rookie’s night earlier than anticipated. He left trailing 9-1, recording only four outs. In his 1 1/3 innings, Mayers was on the hook for nine earned runs on eight hits and a pair of walks with one strikeout. It’s a rough way to start a career, but probably not indicative of his skill level. Mayers posted a combined 2.62 ERA in 18 starts split evenly between Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis.

The Cardinals would make a game out of it, scoring twice in the bottom of the second to make it 9-3, then tacked on three more in the seventh before ultimately losing 9-6.

Box scores.

Blue Jays 2, Mariners 0
Diamondbacks 9, Reds 8
Orioles 5, Indians 3
Mets 3, Marlins 0
Red Sox 8, Twins 7
Padres 10, Nationals 6
White Sox 4, Tigers 3 (Game 1)
White Sox 5, Tigers 4 (Game 2)
Pirates 5, Phillies 4
Astros 13, Angels 3
Cubs 6, Brewers 5
Rangers 2, Royals 1
Rockies 7, Braves 2
Athletics 3, Rays 2
Yankees 5, Giants 2
Dodgers 9, Cardinals 6

The Rockies are promoting outfield prospect David Dahl

SAN DIEGO, CA - JULY 10:  David Dahl of the U.S. Team looks on prior to the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game at PETCO Park on July 10, 2016 in San Diego, California.  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Harry How/Getty Images
1 Comment

In a wave of prospect advancement news on Sunday, the Rockies have joined the fray. The Astros are calling up Alex Bregman. The Diamondbacks are calling up Braden Shipley. And the Rockies will call up outfield prospect David Dahl on Monday, Nick Groke of The Denver Post reports. The Rockies are expected to designate outfielder Brandon Barnes for assignment to create roster space.

Dahl, 22, was selected by the Rockies in the first round — 10th overall — in the 2012 draft. He started the season at Double-A, batting .278/.367/.500 with 13 home runs, 45 RBI, 53 runs scored, and 16 stolen bases in 322 plate appearances. He earned a promotion to Triple-A Albuquerque earlier this month. In 16 games there, Dahl has hit an outstanding .484/.529/.887 with five homers, 16 RBI, and 17 runs scored in 68 plate appearances.

Dahl is considered the Rockies’ second-best prospect and #40 overall in baseball according to MLB Pipeline. He got some camera time during the 2016 Futures Game two weeks ago, going 0-for-2.