Will Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens ever get into the Hall of Fame?

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If you had asked me before 2pm today I would have guessed that Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would have received around 50% of the vote. Not a lot given their baseball accomplishments, but a healthy vote for two players so thoroughly associated with PEDs.  But they fell far short: Clemens received 37.6% of the vote, Bonds 36.2%.

I think there are two distinct groups of voters who voted no on these guys this year (1) the never ever voters; and (2) the not this year voters.  The never ever voters will, obviously, never-ever vote for a PED user. They have drawn a bright moral line and will not consider these two no matter what happens.   The not this year voters are voters who took Bonds’ and Clemens’ first year on the ballot as an opportunity to lodge a protest vote. I recall reading many columns by these sorts, all of whom said some version of “I may vote for them in the future, but I don’t know what to do with them now …” or something like it.

For Clemens and Bonds to make it in, that second camp has to be gigantic. And frankly, I can’t see it being such a large group of people that it will allow them to jump up by nearly 40% in the vote be it next year or ten years from now.  Given how low their vote totals are the never ever camp has to comprise more than 25% of the electorate, and it only takes one more than 25% of the electorate to block a player.

Maybe attrition changes this, but I have my doubts. It’s fashionable to say that the “old man” voters oppose Bonds and Clemens and then assume that, over time, those voters will die off while younger, more progressive voters fill the BBWAA’s ranks. But I don’t necessarily buy that. There are a lot of “old man” voters who don’t think PEDs are a mortal sin. Maybe because they remember segregation and its after effects, greenies, cocaine and all manner of other bad things and know damn well that there are worse things in baseball than someone taking steroids.  Meanwhile, there are a lot of Hall of Fame voters south of 50 who are among the most virulent anti-PED guys as you’ll find anywhere.  Even if you’re counting on attrition, it’s going to take longer than the 14 years Bonds and Clemens have on the ballot to make a difference.

No, the only chance those two have to make the Hall of Fame is for some sort of fundamental change in the process to happen. For the BBWAA to alter the composition of its electorate, for MLB and the Hall of Fame to come out with some sort of formal diktat that PED use should not be considered in Hall of Fame voting or for the BBWAA to have the Hall of Fame vote taken away from it altogether.

I don’t see any of those three things happening. And for that reason, I don’t see Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens getting into the Hall of Fame without a ticket any time soon.

The Mariners are hosting a “Celebrating Women in Baseball” night this summer

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The Mariners have announced that on August 15, the first event in their “Beyond the Baselines” series will be held at Safeco Field. This one is called “Celebrating Women in Baseball.” Those who purchase tickets will receive a Mariners Women in Baseball t-shirt and a voucher for a drink. The event will include a pregame panel discussion in which the members of the panel discuss women’s contributions to the game and much more.

The panel includes moderator Meg Rowley of Baseball Prospectus, Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle, Orioles director of analytics and major league contracts Sarah Gelles, Mariners scout Amanda Hopkins, and Mariners manager of baseball information Kelly Munro. The panel discussion will be streamed on Facebook Live, starting at 5:10 PM PT.

This is how you hold an event designed for women. There is no patronizing “101” class that treats all women as if they have no knowledge of the game. Women directly from the industry are invited to speak, not men speaking about “what if”s. Hopefully, the event goes swimmingly and it becomes something all the other teams in baseball adopt until women holding positions in baseball becomes so normal we don’t even notice it.

Terry Francona will not manage tonight’s game against the Rangers

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As we wrote this morning, Indians manager Terry Francona left last night’s game against the Rangers after falling ill. Specifically, he was said to be experiencing a rapid heart rate and dizziness, just as he did back on June 13 when he left an Indians-Dodgers game.

According to a release from the team, Francona was evaluated by doctors at Cleveland Clinic last night. The tests, thankfully, have ruled out any major health concerns, but Francona will not manage tonight’s game against the Rangers and was advised to stay at home rather than come to the ballpark. He will continue to be monitored.

Francona experienced some chest pains and had an elevated heart rate that caused him to leave a game early last season. In 2005 a similar episode caused him to miss three games while managing the Red Sox. He also has a history of embolisms and blood clots, some of which have hospitalized him in the past, so caution is certainly in order.

Bench coach Brad Mills will manage the team tonight.