Jeff Keppinger

Jeff Keppinger for $12 million is a bit of a reach


Obviously, it’s a good idea not to give three-year contracts to part-time players unless you have to. Unfortunately, in this winter’s free agent market, the White Sox felt they had to. Jeff Keppinger probably had multiple teams interested in him at $8 million for two years, so the first team to go to $12 million for three was the one that got him.

In Keppinger, the White Sox are getting an infielder who provides most of his value as a starter against lefties. He’s a lifetime .269/.321/.358 hitter against righties, and he doesn’t make up for it with his glove, which is poor at second and probably a bit below average at third.

Keppinger’s list of comparables doesn’t make him look like a very good bet as he heads into his age-33 season. Keppinger hit .296/.341/.402 with 21 homers and five steals from ages 30-32. I found nine other second and/or third basemen who posted OPSs from .720-.770, hit fewer than 40 homers and stole fewer than 20 bases from ages 30-32. Here’s how they performed from 33 onward:

Steve Buechele: .177/.262/.215, 29 OPS+ in 130 AB
Jamey Carroll: .274/.353/.333, 89 OPS+ in 2,162 AB
Mike Gallego: .225/.299/.292, 59 OPS+ in 612 AB
Vance Law: .209/.303/.276, 66 OPS+ in 134 AB
Dave Magadan: .280/.382/.372, 101 OPS+ in 1,057 AB
Joe Randa: .282/.339/.432, 100 OPS+ in 1,748 AB
Johnny Ray: .277/.308/.371, 92 OPS+ in 404 AB
Denny Walling: .252/.320/.355, 88 OPS+ in 812 AB
Joel Youngblood: .252/.323/.353, 92 OPS+ in 842 AB

Carroll, of course, is still going.

Magadan would seem to be a nice comp for Keppinger, but he was the far better hitter (he was also left-handed). Magadan had a career 116 OPS+ prior to turning 33, whereas Keppinger is at 97. Randa had more power than Keppinger, but he’s the best hope for the White Sox here, as he was a better old player than a young one.

Buechele and Ray only made it to 33. Law actually went to Japan for his age-33 season before coming back and playing one more year in MLB.

While Keppinger is a useful player, he’s a worse bet than he was a year ago, when he was also a free agent (he was non-tendered by the Giants) and when the White Sox had no interest in him.  The White Sox already had a right-handed hitting third baseman in Brent Morel who may well prove to be the better player once defense is factored in. I realize funds are limited, but I think the White Sox would have been better off trading Gavin Floyd or Matt Thornton to free up money for a bigger offensive upgrade than they were giving Keppinger $4 million for each of the next three seasons.

Shelby Miller snaps 24-start winless streak

Shelby Miller
AP Photo/John Bazemore

Pitcher wins are stupid, but players do seem to put some stock in them. And so Braves starter Shelby Miller can finish his 2015 season with some positive vibes.

The right-hander held the Cardinals scoreless over eight innings in the first half of a doubleheader Sunday afternoon at Turner Field, an eventual 6-0 victory for the host Braves. Miller struck out seven, gave up only three hits, and finally got some run support to snap a 24-start “winless” streak. (Atlanta was actually 3-21 in that stretch).

Miller’s last official “win” before Sunday came May 17 in Miami. He shut out the Marlins and flirted with a no-hitter in that start.

The 24-year-old will finish the 2015 season with a 6-17 record, 3.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 171/73 K/BB ratio in 205 1/3 innings. He was traded to Atlanta from St. Louis over the winter in the four-player Jason Heyward deal and will be under the Braves’ control through at least 2018.

Heyward is scheduled to become a free agent this winter.

Adam Eaton to undergo shoulder surgery Monday

Adam Eaton
AP Photo/Paul Sancya
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Dan Hayes of reports that White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton is scheduled to undergo arthroscopic surgery Monday on his left shoulder. It’s only a cleanup procedure, and Eaton said he expects to be cleared for fishing — offseason priorities — after just 2-3 weeks of rest and rehab.

Eaton is not in the White Sox lineup for Sunday’s season finale against the Tigers, so he’ll finish 2015 with a .287/.361/.431 batting line, 14 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and 98 runs scored in 153 games.

The 26-year-old center fielder has turned into a nice all-around player and he’s under contract through 2021 at some very reasonable rates.