Angel Pagan

Angel Pagan goes from fringe regular to $40 million player

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The Mets were strongly considering non-tendering Angel Pagan rather than pay him $5 million or so for 2012. Instead, they found a taker for him in the Giants, who sent back fellow center fielder Andres Torres and right-hander Ramon Ramirez. It proved to be a great deal for San Francisco, as Pagan proved key in the leadoff spot for the world champs. Meanwhile, the two players the Mets got in return aren’t expected back for 2013.

Pagan will be back with the Giants, of course, courtesy of the new four-year, $40 million deal he agreed to Monday. The 31-year-old’s annual salary will slightly top the $9.8 million he’s made the last three years combined.

For 2013, it seems like a worthy price. Pagan’s .288/.338/.440 line from last season matches up quite well with what he did in 2009 and ’10 before a disappointing 2011 campaign. Plus, Pagan is a fine center fielder, just a bit short of Gold Glove quality. He is a $10 million player right now.

On the other hand, it’s not at all likely that he’ll still be a $10 million player by the time 2015 and ’16 come around. At 31, Pagan should be just wrapping up his prime years now.

According to Baseball Reference, the 10 players most similar to Pagan through age 30 are Felix Jose, Roy Weatherly, Gene Moore, Alex Ochoa, Chris Singleton, Lee Maye, Johnny Grubb, Mitch Webster, Al Zarilla and Irv Noren.

Not one guy from that list was a quality regular from age 31 onwards. Grubb played eight more years and Maye and Webster lasted six more, but they were part-timers. Ochoa was all done in the majors by that age. The other nine averaged 1.7 WAR for the rest of their careers after age 31.

Perhaps that’s not the best list, though. How about this one. Pagan is one of 17 center fielders to post OPSs between .720-.780, hit fewer than 50 homers and steal more than 50 bases from ages 28-30 (Pagan had a .749 OPS, 26 HR and 98 SB from 28-30). Here’s how that group did from 31 onwards:

Matty Alou: .300/.339/.372, 100 OPS+ in 2,400 AB
Marvin Benard: .247/.290/.356, 71 OPS+ in 194 AB
Willie Davis: .288/.316/.425, 109 OPS+ in 3,534 AB
Steve Finley: .267/.333/.471, 106 OPS+ in 6,033 AB
Doug Glanville: .246/.281/.329, 60 OPS+ in 830 AB
Marquis Grissom: .264/.303/.416, 86 OPS+ in 3,817 AB
Ken Landreaux: .239/.295/.348, 78 OPS+ in 465 AB
Brian McRae: .218/.327/.360, 75 OPS+ in 403 AB
Amos Otis: .275/.339/.422, 109 OPS+ in 2,757 AB
Dode Paskert: .260/.340/.365, 107 OPS+ in 3,644 AB
Mickey Rivers: .304/.328/.392, 103 OPS+ in 1,719 AB
Burt Shotten: .260/.353/.320, 104 OPS+ in 2,045 AB
Roy Thomas: .265/.379/.319, 116 OPS+ in 2,266 AB
Milt Thompson: .256/.327/.359, 88 OPS+ in 1,731 AB
Cesar Tovar: .267/.329/.339, 93 OPS+ in 1,975 AB
Devon White: .272/.331/.435, 100 OPS+ in 3,232 AB

Now that’s a better list. I probably could have thrown out Thomas, Paskert and Shotton, all of whom played in the deadball era, but of the remaining 13, there are seven guys who remained pretty productive, depending on what you want your cutoff there to be. The Giants would certainly be pleased if Pagan aged like White.

Regardless, it may be worth paying Pagan $10 million to be a fourth or fifth outfielder in 2016 if he comes through again in 2013. Better if this contract had been a three-year deal, but at least he’s not overpaid immediately.

Cam Bedrosian weighing surgery to remove a blood clot

ANAHEIM, CA - AUGUST 2: Pitcher Cam Bedrosian #68 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim throws against the Oakland Athletics during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim August 2, 2016, in Anaheim, California. Angels defeated the Athletics, 5-4. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
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Angels reliever Cam Bedrosian will take the next few days to decide whether or not to undergo surgery to remove a blood clot naer his right armpit, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports. The alternative is to treat the clot with blood-thinners and rest.

Bedrosian, 24, hasn’t pitched since blowing a save against the Athletics on August 3, shortly after he took over the closer’s role from the injured Huston Street. Bedrosian was diagnosed with flexor tendinitis in the middle finger of his throwing hand about a week later.

Overall, Bedrosian — the son of former major league closer Steve — has had an outstanding season, compiling a 1.12 ERA with a 51/14 K/BB ratio in 40 1/3 innings.

Shelby Miller will return to D-Backs’ rotation on Wednesday

PHOENIX, AZ - JULY 06:  Shelby Miller #26 of the Arizona Diamondbacks delivers a pitch during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Chase Field on July 6, 2016 in Phoenix, Arizona.  (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
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Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that Shelby Miller will return to the Diamondbacks’ starting rotation on Wednesday to start against the Giants at AT&T Field.

Miller had an abysmal first half of the season, which included a stint on the disabled list with a finger injury caused by his follow-through. In 14 starts with the D-Backs this season, Miller put up a 7.14 ERA with a 50/34 K/BB ratio in 69 1/3 innings.

Miller was demoted to Triple-A Reno and made his first start shortly after the All-Star break. In eight starts in the minors, Miller compiled a much-improved 3.91 ERA with a 55/10 K/BB ratio in 50 2/3 innings.

The Diamondbacks acquired Miller along with minor leaguer Gabe Speier from the Braves this past winter in a heavily-criticized trade that sent Ender Inciarte, Aaron Blair, and 2015 No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson to Atlanta.