Zack Greinke may not be worth all of the fuss

41 Comments

There’s a pretty good chance that Zack Greinke is going to get the biggest contract ever given to a right-hander within these next six weeks or so. Yet he’s hardly been a spectacular starter these last three years.

Here he is compared to the other top seven starters in this winter’s free agent class:

Z. Greinke…: 3.83 ERA, 582/154 K/BB in 604 IP – 106 ERA+

A. Sanchez..: 3.70 ERA, 526/182 K/BB in 587 IP – 109 ERA+

K. Lohse……: 3.76 ERA, 308/115 K/BB in 491 IP – 101 ERA+

E. Jackson..: 4.10 ERA, 497/198 K/BB in 599 IP – 100 ERA+

H. Kuroda…: 3.26 ERA, 487/148 K/BB in 618 IP – 120 ERA+

D. Haren….: 3.75 ERA, 550/125 K/BB in 650 IP – 104 ERA+

R. Dempster: 4.04 ERA, 552/220 K/BB in 591 IP – 102 ERA+

S. Marcum..: 3.62 ERA, 432/141 K/BB in 520 IP – 113 ERA+

Knowing nothing about any of these pitchers other than their names, one still might say Greinke is the best bet of the group, since he does have top best strikeout rate of the bunch. And, of course, this three-year span doesn’t include Greinke’s Cy Young season in 2009.

Still, it’s three years of quality, but hardly awe-inspiring, pitching for a guy who is almost certainly will earn north of $20 million and maybe as much as $25 million per season in his contract.

And I’m just not at all convinced that he’s worth it. The Angels could have kept Haren for $12 million and gotten another pitcher from this list for about what they’ll spend on Greinke next year, assuming they’re even able to re-sign him. Greinke is going to be bid on as though he’s in the same class as Matt Cain and Cole Hamels, and he hasn’t been. Cain, whose $127.5 million deal with the Giants is currently the biggest ever for a righty, has a 123 ERA+ the last three years. Hamels, whose deal is worth $144 million for six years, has a 134 ERA+.

One other thought: Kuroda has outpitched Greinke three straight seasons. How is he not worth more than $20 million on a one-year deal? It’s pretty crazy that a few teams are going to be willing to guarantee Greinke at least $20 million-$22 million six years out, yet Kuroda might end up settling for $13 million-$15 million on a one-year deal.

Brandon Finnegan exits start with apparent injury

Michael Hickey/Getty Images
Leave a comment

Reds lefty Brandon Finnegan exited Monday afternoon’s start against the Cardinals in the fourth inning with an apparent shoulder injury. He grimaced after throwing a pitch and promptly walked off the field without even trying to throw a warmup pitch. In three-plus innings, Finnegan allowed three runs on three hits and four walks with two strikeouts on 58 pitches.

Finnegan, 24, was making his first start since April 15. He had been dealing with a strained left trapezius muscle.

The Reds should have more information on Finnegan’s status later tonight. Given how Finnegan acted after throwing his final pitch, a stint on the disabled list looks likely.

Rays acquire Adeiny Hechavarria from the Marlins

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
1 Comment

The Rays have acquired shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria from the Marlins, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports. The Marlins will receive minor league outfielder Braxton Lee and pitcher Ethan Clark. The Rays are expected to assume the remainder of Hechavarria’s $4.35 million salary for the 2017 season.

Hechavarria, 28, has only played in 20 games this season due to an oblique injury. He has mustered a meager .277/.288/.385 triple-slash line with four extra-base hits and six RBI across 67 plate appearances. He still plays decent defense, though, so that may be enough for him to take the everyday shortstop job in Tampa.

Lee, 23, was selected by the Rays in the 12th round of the 2014 draft. This season with Double-A Montgomery, his second stint there, Lee hit .318/.387/.391 over 296 PA.

Clark, 22, was taken in the 15th round of the 2015 draft by the Rays. In his first stint at Single-A in Bowling Green, Clark has a 3.11 ERA with a 50/18 K/BB ratio in 55 innings of work.