The following passage on a couple of free agent pitchers is from Buster Olney’s ESPN Insider column Saturday:
[Anibal] Sanchez could get anywhere from $30 million to $60 million as a free agent, some agents and executives predict, and Kyle Lohse could get a deal in the $77.5 million range, as C.J. Wilson did last winter.
Does that read completely backwards to anyone else? I’m thinking Lohse may get anywhere from $30 million-$60 million this winter, while Sanchez could well be in that $77.5 million range.
Sanchez is going to pitch next year at 29. Lohse is 34. Here are their numbers from the last three years:
Sanchez: 3.70 ERA, 109 ERA+, 526/182 K/BB ratio in 587 IP
Lohse: 3.76 ERA, 101 ERA+, 308/115 K/BB ratio in 491 1/3 IP
Lohse was the better of the two this year, but he’s the older of the two by 5 1/2 years, his peripherals aren’t very impressive and he’ll be leaving St. Louis. The history of pitchers who had their careers turned around by Dave Duncan and then left for more money is quite bleak.
It’s possible Lohse could get the bigger deal of the two, but I really doubt it. With the way he’s pitched in the postseason, Sanchez looks like the pretty clear No. 2 free agent starter behind Zack Greinke now. Lohse, Jake Peavy and Edwin Jackson are among those trailing behind him. I’m not going to include Hiroki Kuroda anywhere in that mix, since he’s just going to want a one-year deal to pitch somewhere he’s comfortable.