Don’t start with the Justin Verlander on three days’ rest stuff

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Tigers ace Justin Verlander gave up five runs in four innings against the Giants in Game 1 of the World Series.

That’s as many runs as probable Game 4 starter Max Scherzer has allowed in his last four starts combined. The last time Scherzer allowed five runs in a start was July 30. Including his two postseason outings, he’s 9-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 128 strikeouts in 101 2/3 innings since the All-Star break.

No, none of that makes Scherzer a better pitcher than Verlander. But he’s pretty obviously a better bet on long rest than Verlander would be on three days’ rest in Sunday’s Game 4.

Tigers pitching has been just fine so far. In fact, aside from Verlander and Jose Valverde in Game 1, it’s been great. The team simply needs to score some runs. If Detroit is going to come back from a 3-0 deficit, it has a much better chance of happening with Scherzer, Verlander, Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez all going on normal or extra rest these next four games than it would with Verlander on short rest, Scherzer and Fister the next two games and then Verlander on short rest again.

So, please, no more Verlander talk. Not until Game 5 anyway.

James Paxton will “nerd out big-time” to stay healthy next year

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To the surprise of, well, very few, the Mariners didn’t make the cut for the postseason this year. While they threw their hats in the ring for a wild card berth, their pitching staff just couldn’t stay healthy, from the handful of pitchers who contracted season-ending injuries in spring training to Felix Hernandez‘s shoulder bursitis to structural damage in Hisashi Iwakuma‘s right shoulder. Left-hander James Paxton missed 79 days with a lingering head cold, strained left forearm and pectoral strain. Heading into the 2018 season, the lefty told MLB.com’s Greg Johns that he plans to “nerd out big-time” in order to prepare for a healthy, consistent run with the club.

So far, Johns reports, that entails a new diet and workout program, hot yoga sessions and blood testing. “I just think there’s more I can do,” Paxton said. “I haven’t done the blood testing before. Finding out if there’s something I don’t know about myself. It’s just about learning and trying to find what works for me.”

When healthy, the 28-year-old southpaw was lights-out for the Mariners. He helped stabilize the front end of the rotation with a 12-5 record in 24 starts and supplemented his efforts with a 2.98 ERA, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.3 SO/9 through 136 innings. Despite taking multiple trips to the disabled list, he built up 4.6 fWAR — the most wins above replacement he’s compiled in any season of his career to date. Had he not been felled by a pectoral injury in mid-August — one that came with a five-week trip to the disabled list — the club might have been been able to make a bigger push for the playoffs.

Of course, even if Paxton manages to stay healthy next season, the Mariners still have the rest of the rotation to worry about. They cycled through 17 starters in 2017 and tied the 2014 Rangers with 40 total pitchers over the course of the season. Per GM Jerry Dipoto, their top four starters (Paxton, Hernandez, Iwakuma, and Tommy John candidate Drew Smyly) only contributed 17% of total innings pitched, just a tad below the 40% average. Finding adequate big league arms and compensating for injured aces (both current and former) will be tough. Still, getting a healthy, dominant Paxton back on the mound for 30+ starts would be a huge get for the team — whether or not the postseason is in their future next year.