2012 projections review: second base

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This is the third entry in a position-by-position review of my 2012 projections. Along with looking at my top preseason top 10 (for fantasy purposes) from each spot, I’m highlighting some other interesting players. Any requests for players not covered can be made in the comments.

1. Robinson Cano – Yankees
Projection: .309/.362/.520, 30 HR, 110 R, 123 RBI, 4 SB in 638 AB
2012 stats: .313/.379/.550, 33 HR, 105 R, 94 RBI, 3 SB in 627 AB

I thought Cano would have a real shot at leading the league in RBI after moving up in the Yankee lineup, but he came in well shy of his 2010 and ’11 totals, even though he finished with a career-high slugging percentage. The biggest problem was hit .268/.393/.436 line with RISP, but it also didn’t help that Yankees’ No. 2 hitters weren’t on base as much as expected.

2. Ian Kinsler – Rangers
Projection: .285/.373/.490, 25 HR, 109 R, 74 RBI, 25 SB in 571 AB
2012 stats: .256/.326/.423, 19 HR, 105 R, 72 RBI, 21 SB in 655 AB

Kinsler spent most of the season hitting .270-.280 before really fading in the end. It hardly seems like a good sign that he went from a 71/89 K/BB ratio in 2011 to a 90/60 K/BB ratio this year.

3. Dustin Pedroia – Red Sox
Projection: .291/.371/.450, 17 HR, 103 R, 89 RBI, 17 SB in 598 AB
2012 stats: .290/.347/.449, 15 HR, 81 R, 65 RBI, 20 SB in 563 AB

Pedroia wasn’t the problem for Boston this year, but with all of the disappointments surrounding him in the lineup, he fell well short of the run and RBI projections.

4. Brandon Phillips – Reds
Projection: .277/.335/.446, 21 HR, 96 R, 76 RBI, 20 SB in 610 AB
2012 stats: .281/.321/.429, 18 HR, 86 R, 77 RBI, 15 SB in 580 AB

If only everyone were as easy to project as BP. He’s hit 18 homers three straight seasons now, and aside from his .810 mark in 2011, his OPS has been between .750-.770 each of the last five years.

5. Howie Kendrick – Angels
Projection: .299/.345/.455, 15 HR, 90 R, 73 RBI, 14 SB in 569 AB
2012 stats: .287/.325/.400, 8 HR, 57 R, 67 RBI, 14 SB in 550 AB

Kendrick didn’t hold on to 2011’s power spike, and he still hasn’t turned into the .300-.320 hitter it looked like he’d become when he was younger. Of course, he may yet turn in a career year come 2013 or ’14.

6. Ben Zobrist – Rays
Projection: .257/.356/.427, 18 HR, 85 R, 82 RBI, 21 SB in 557 AB
2012 stats: .270/.377/.471, 20 HR, 88 R, 74 RBI, 14 SB in 560 AB

Zobrist hit .203 for two months and then .299 the rest of the way. He should have driven in a few more runs, but three-quarters of his homers came with the bases empty, even though he spent most of the year hitting third or fifth.

7. Rickie Weeks – Brewers
Projection: .273/.361/.480, 25 HR, 87 R, 64 RBI, 11 SB in 523 AB
2012 stats: .230/.328/.400, 21 HR, 85 R, 63 RBI, 16 SB in 588 AB

And Zobrist still had nothing on Weeks’ start. Fortunately, Weeks recovered to hit .269/.350/.478 with 15 homers over the final three months.

8. Chase Utley – Phillies
Projection: .282/.380/.460, 18 HR, 78 R, 71 RBI, 11 SB in 465 AB
2012 stats: .256/.365/.429, 11 HR, 48 R, 45 RBI, 11 SB in 301 AB

Utley was still pretty darn good while healthy, but it was a far cry from the MVP candidate of old. He’ll play next season at 34 and knee problems are likely a fact of life for him now, so the Phillies should be hoping for similar production over 120-130 games. Anything more would be gravy.

9. Jemile Weeks – Athletics
Projection: .287/.354/.401, 5 HR, 80 R, 51 RBI, 32 SB in 579 AB
2012 stats: .221/.305/.304, 2 HR, 54 R, 20 RBI, 16 SB in 444 AB

At least his big brother bounced back as the year went on. There was nothing encouraging to take from Jemile’s season. He didn’t hit the ball with authority, and he didn’t even turn his grounders into hits with any regularity. He’ll face an uphill climb to win his job back next spring.

10. Dustin Ackley – Mariners
Projection: .279/.357/.443, 15 HR, 83 R, 77 RBI, 13 SB in 594 AB
2012 stats: .226/.294/.328, 12 HR, 84 R, 50 RBI, 13 SB in 607 AB

I didn’t think I was that high on Ackley, but that was just a dreadful season. Still, there’s better reason for optimism here than with Jemile. For one thing, the Mariners are firmly in his corner, and he’ll almost certainly be the Opening Day starter again, even if bringing in some competition would be a good idea. For another, he did lower his strikeout rate some from his rookie season. I still think he’ll settle in as an above average offensive second baseman next year. However, he doesn’t project as a star.

11. Dan Uggla – Braves
Projection: .252/.343/.470, 31 HR, 82 R, 90 RBI, 2 SB in 560 AB
2012 stats: .220/.348/.384, 19 HR, 86 R, 78 RBI, 4 SB in 523 AB

Uggla had 36 homers in 600 at-bats in 2011 and finished with 88 runs scored and 82 RBI. In 2012, he had 17 fewer homers and still essentially matched those run and RBI totals, taking off three or four of each to account for the fact that he played in seven fewer games. Anyway, his contract is looking really, really lousy at the moment. Still three years and $39 million to go.

12. Aaron Hill – Diamondbacks
Projection: .267/.319/.456, 24 HR, 75 R, 71 RBI, 13 SB in 570 AB
2012 stats: .302/.360/.522, 26 HR, 93 R, 85 RBI, 14 SB in 609 AB

Hill is maybe baseball’s most inconsistent player. His career OPS is an average enough .759, but he hasn’t finished with 70 points of that mark since 2007. His last five years: .685, .829, .665, .655 and now .882.

13. Neil Walker – Pirates
Projection: .281/.341/.438, 16 HR, 77 R, 83 RBI, 6 SB in 566 AB
2012 stats: .280/.341/.426, 14 HR, 62 R, 69 RBI, 7 SB in 472 AB

14. Jason Kipnis – Indians
Projection: .265/.337/.440, 17 HR, 73 R, 78 RBI, 13 SB in 532 AB
2012 stats: .257/.335/.379, 14 HR, 86 R, 76 RBI, 31 SB in 591 AB

I had Kipnis ranked ahead of Walker most of the spring, only to make the change at the last minute because the Indians decided to start off the season with Kipnis hitting eighth. Of course, that ended up lasting for all of a week. Kipnis’ season actually ended up being a bit of a disappointment thanks to the second-half swoon, but that wasn’t the case for fantasy purposes, as all of those steals made him very valuable.

15. Danny Espinosa – Nationals
Projection: .244/.325/.416, 22 HR, 78 R, 67 RBI, 17 SB in 579 AB
2012 stats: .247/.315/.402, 17 HR, 82 R, 56 RBI, 20 SB in 594 AB

With RISP and none or one out this year, Espinosa hit .182 with one double, no homers and 12 RBI in 77 at-bats. With RISP and two outs, he hit .246 with four doubles, five homers and 23 RBI in 57 at-bats. That’s a .453 OPS versus a .937 OPS. In 2011, he was basically the opposite, struggling with two outs and doing a terrific job with none or one out.

I’m not sure I have a point here, except that I’m sick of Joe Buck harping on a guy’s RISP stats like it really tells us something about the player.

17. Jose Altuve – Astros
Projection: .287/.327/.385, 6 HR, 71 R, 50 RBI, 20 SB in 571 AB
2012 stats: .290/.340/.399, 7 HR, 80 R, 37 RBI, 33 SB in 576 AB

Altuve’s OPS dropped pretty steadily after his strong April, and I’m guessing fatigue played a role. If not for the league switch, I’d project him to hit a bit over .300 next year. The AL West makes for quite a bit tougher competition than the NL Central, though.

19. Gordon Beckham – White Sox
Projection: .262/.330/.414, 15 HR, 67 R, 64 RBI, 7 SB in 512 AB
2012 stats: .234/.296/.371, 16 HR, 62 R, 60 RBI, 5 SB in 525 AB

Beckham was able to cut back on the strikeouts this year, but it didn’t result in any more hits. A change of scenery seems like a must after three straight disappointing seasons, but he has little trade value remaining and the White Sox don’t have a replacement in house. Plus, he’ll still be pretty cheap, even though he’s off to arbitration for the first time. Maybe he’ll stay.

36. Jeff Keppinger – Rays
Projection: .282/.335/.382, 4 HR, 37 R, 32 RBI, 1 SB in 280 AB
2012 stats: .325/.367/.439, 9 HR, 46 R, 40 RBI, 1 SB in 385 AB

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Previous 2012 projection reviews: catcher / first base

Kris Bryant on Joey Votto: “He’s the best player ever … He’s a future Hall of Famer, that’s for sure.”

Ethan Miller/Getty Images
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The Cubs wrapped up a four-game series against the Reds at Wrigley Field on Thursday afternoon, suffering a 13-10 loss to split the set. They’ll match up again against the Reds next week for a three-game series in Cincinnati. That’s good news for Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, because that means he’ll get to see Reds first baseman Joey Votto some more.

As CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney reports, Bryant has grown quite fond of Votto. Bryant has already won a World Series ring, a Rookie of the Year Award, and an MVP Award, but he still looks up to Votto. According to Bryant, Votto is “the best player ever.” He added, ““He’s my favorite player. I love watching him. I love talking to him, just picking his brain. He gets a lot of (heat) about his walks and working at-bats and some people want him to swing at more pitches. But, gosh, I mean, he does an unbelievable job. You know that he’s going to give you a great at-bat every time he goes up there. It’s definitely a guy that I look up to and I can learn from.”

Bryant said that Votto is “a future Hall of Famer, that’s for sure.”

Bryant also explained how his approach changed by watching Votto. He said that in his rookie season, he was “swinging at everything.” Votto, however, is “aggressive, but he’s not going to swing at a pitch until he wants it.”

Indeed, in Bryant’s rookie season, he struck out in nearly 31 percent of his 650 plate appearances. This season, he has struck out in only 19 percent of his PA. His walk rate has also increased by more than 2.5 percent since his rookie campaign. Compared to last year, Bryant is down in HR and RBI, but his average is the same, his on-base percentage is markedly better, and his slugging percentage is only down by a minute amount.

Video: Daniel Descalso hits D-Backs’ third inside-the-park homer of the season

Bob Levey/Getty Images
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Diamondbacks second baseman Daniel Descalso hit his team’s third inside-the-park home run of the season during Thursday’s 4-0 win over the Astros. In the top of the fourth inning, with the score 1-0 and the bases empty, Descalso ripped a 1-0, 83 MPH change-up to right-center field. The ball caromed off the wall, heading towards left field, which sent center Jake Marisnick on the chase. Marisnick tried to pick up the ball with his glove, but dropped it, which sealed Descalso’s destiny for an inside-the-parker.

It had only been five days since the Diamondbacks’ last inside-the-park home run. David Peralta hit one against the Cubs on August 12. Ketel Marte legged out his club’s first ITPHR on July 26 against the Braves.

As ESPN Stats & Info notes, the Diamondbacks have three as a team, which is amazing because the other 29 teams have hit seven combined.