With a pair of winner-take-all games tonight I thought it would be interesting to examine the Las Vegas betting lines (for entertainment purposes only, of course).
In the early game the Yankees are -200 favorites over the Orioles, which means you’d have to risk $200 to win $100 on New York. During the regular season there are often favorites as big as -250 or even -300, but those are usually matchups of very good teams versus very bad teams. To get -200 in a matchup of two playoff teams is uncommon and says a lot about the faith people have in CC Sabathia (or the lack of faith in Jason Hammel, maybe). For a -200 bet on the Yankees to be profitable they must win at least 67 percent of the time.
In the later game the Nationals are -130 favorites over the Cardinals, which means you’d have to risk $130 to win $100 on Washington. That’s a more typical playoff line and for that bet to be profitable Washington would have to win at least 57 percent of the time. They’re at home with Gio Gonzalez on the mound, so that seems about right.
Also worth noting: Last time I did one of these “what’s the Las Vegas line?” posts was for the two Wild Card playoff games and both favorites (Rangers at -190 and Braves at -170) lost.
The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reports that Athletics’ right-hander Sonny Gray will not pitch in the World Baseball Classic after failing to meet the necessary criteria for insurance coverage. He missed 70 days on the disabled list with forearm tightness and a back strain in 2016.
According to Oakland GM David Forst, Major League Baseball tried to persuade the insurance carrier to waive the requirements for Gray to pitch for Team USA, but the request was ultimately refused. Without coverage, Gray will be unable to participate in the competition, though Forst adds that the 27-year-old is still in perfect health as Opening Day approaches and should benefit from a slower spring training schedule without the added commitment on his plate.
Injuries complicated a down year for Gray, who pitched to a career-worst 5.69 ERA, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.2 SO/9 rate through 117 innings in 2016. His 1.4 HR/9 and 17.8% HR/FB rates suggested that he felt the effects of the home run spike more than most, capping a disappointing follow-up to his All-Star campaign during 2015.
While Gray works up to a healthy and productive start to the 2017 season, the Athletics will still see two players on WBC rosters next month: right-handed reliever Santiago Casilla, who is scheduled to pitch for the Dominican Republic, and fellow righty John Axford, for Team Canada.
Rangers’ outfielder Josh Hamilton is scheduled for another knee exam on Monday, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Hamilton left camp last week after feeling some pain in his left knee and received a PRP injection to alleviate the symptoms. Wilson notes that both Dr. Walt Lowe and Rangers’ assistant general manager Mike Daly noticed little improvement in the days following the injection.
More drastic measures could be necessary if the 35-year-old intends to return to the field this year. MLB.com’s TR Sullivan adds that the Rangers are considering arthroscopic surgery for Hamilton, which would set him back at least 4-6 weeks and eliminate any real chance of his making the Opening Day roster in April. Until they see the results of the surgery, however, the Rangers won’t rule out Hamilton’s potential return to the big leagues in 2017.
Hamilton is looking at his third major procedure since the end of the 2015 season. He missed all of the Rangers’ 2016 campaign after undergoing reconstructive knee surgery last spring and has not seen a full workload in the majors since his 2013 run with the Angels. Should he make a full recovery this season, he figures to see some time at first base/DH or the corner outfield.