Reds still hold the advantage in winner-take-all Game 5


Momentum, if such a thing exists in baseball, favors the Giants. Thursday’s matchup, Matt Cain vs. Mat Latos, would likewise seem to favor the Giants. And yet the Reds are still the better bet to win Thursday’s series-ending Game 5.

– The Reds have home-field advantage. It didn’t count for much the last two days, but the Reds were tied for the NL’s best record at home (50-31) this season.

– Recent history suggests the Reds have Cain’s number. Including Saturday’s Game 1, in which the Giants ace allowed three runs in five innings, Cain is 0-3 with a 5.50 ERA and six homers surrendered in 18 innings against the Reds this year. Two of those three starts were in San Francisco, too. Overall, Cain was far better at home this year (2.03 ERA, seven homers allowed in 111 IP) than on the road (3.56 ERA, 14 homers allowed in 109 IP).

– Latos is pitching even better than Cain at the moment. He had a 2.41 ERA over the final two months of the regular season. Plus, he’s dominated the Giants. He was 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in two starts during the season. Pitching in relief of the injured Johnny Cueto, he allowed one run over four innings in relief in the Game 1 victory.

– Even though the Reds’ No. 1 starter (Cuet0) faced two batters in Game 1 and their hottest starter going into the series (Latos) hasn’t started at all, the Reds have outscored the Giants 18-12 in the NLDS. They’ve been the better team.

– Since Wednesday’s game wasn’t close, the key relievers on both teams will be rested for Game 5. That favors the Reds, given that Aroldis Chapman and Sean Marshall are a bit stronger than the Giants’ late-game committee.

– The Reds also have Bronson Arroyo lurking if something truly unexpected happens. It’s doubtful Dusty Baker will be looking to go to him, but he was awesome in Game 2 and he’s actually been quite successful on three days’ rest in his career, going 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in eight starts.

Of course, just about anything can happen in an all-hands-on-deck game, and things will get very interesting if Latos happens to struggle early. I like the Reds in this one, but given that I preferred the Giants a week ago, what do I know?

Wade Miley exits spring start with groin strain

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Attempting to make a play on a bunt during Wednesday’s split-squad game against the Athletics, Brewers starter Wade Miley suffered a strained left groin, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. Miley will undergo an MRI to determine the severity of the injury. On the afternoon, he gave up two runs on three hits and three walks with three strikeouts in four innings.

Miley, 31, signed a minor league contract with the Brewers last month. He had been having a solid spring until last Friday, when he served up seven runs in three innings against the Reds. The lefty had been battling for a spot in the Brewers’ rotation but this injury may take him out of the running.

Last season with the Orioles, Miley made 32 starts spanning 157 1/3 innings, posting a 5.61 ERA with a 142/93 K/BB ratio.

With the Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb signings recently, many wondered why the Brewers didn’t make a move. They may regret not having done more.

In related news, reliever Boone Logan also left with an injury on Wednesday, per Haudricourt. The Brewers should have more on both players’ statuses later.