Mat Latos

Reds still hold the advantage in winner-take-all Game 5

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Momentum, if such a thing exists in baseball, favors the Giants. Thursday’s matchup, Matt Cain vs. Mat Latos, would likewise seem to favor the Giants. And yet the Reds are still the better bet to win Thursday’s series-ending Game 5.

– The Reds have home-field advantage. It didn’t count for much the last two days, but the Reds were tied for the NL’s best record at home (50-31) this season.

– Recent history suggests the Reds have Cain’s number. Including Saturday’s Game 1, in which the Giants ace allowed three runs in five innings, Cain is 0-3 with a 5.50 ERA and six homers surrendered in 18 innings against the Reds this year. Two of those three starts were in San Francisco, too. Overall, Cain was far better at home this year (2.03 ERA, seven homers allowed in 111 IP) than on the road (3.56 ERA, 14 homers allowed in 109 IP).

– Latos is pitching even better than Cain at the moment. He had a 2.41 ERA over the final two months of the regular season. Plus, he’s dominated the Giants. He was 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA in two starts during the season. Pitching in relief of the injured Johnny Cueto, he allowed one run over four innings in relief in the Game 1 victory.

– Even though the Reds’ No. 1 starter (Cuet0) faced two batters in Game 1 and their hottest starter going into the series (Latos) hasn’t started at all, the Reds have outscored the Giants 18-12 in the NLDS. They’ve been the better team.

– Since Wednesday’s game wasn’t close, the key relievers on both teams will be rested for Game 5. That favors the Reds, given that Aroldis Chapman and Sean Marshall are a bit stronger than the Giants’ late-game committee.

– The Reds also have Bronson Arroyo lurking if something truly unexpected happens. It’s doubtful Dusty Baker will be looking to go to him, but he was awesome in Game 2 and he’s actually been quite successful on three days’ rest in his career, going 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in eight starts.

Of course, just about anything can happen in an all-hands-on-deck game, and things will get very interesting if Latos happens to struggle early. I like the Reds in this one, but given that I preferred the Giants a week ago, what do I know?

The Dodgers tied a dubious major league record yesterday

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The Dodgers beat their arch rival last night and expanded their lead in the NL West over those Giants to two games. That’s good! They also set a record for the most players on the disabled list in a season. That’s bad!

Los Angeles placed Brett Anderson and Scott Kazmir on the disabled list yesterday. Anderson has a blister on the index finger of his pitching hand. Kazmir has neck inflammation. Kazmir is the 27th different Dodgers player to go on the DL this year, which ties the record held by the 2012 Boston Red Sox. No word on whether Anderson has set any records for any one individual’s trip to the DL, but he has to be getting up there.

Records on this particular mark only go back to 1987. I’m sure its possible some team lost more than that due to the 1919 influenza pandemic or to some iteration of a Yellow Fever epidemic or something, but this is easily the most since antibiotics were invented.

Orioles place Chris Tillman on the disabled list

BALTIMORE, MD - AUGUST 20:  Chris Tillman #30 of the Baltimore Orioles is taken out of the game by manager Buck Showalter #26 in the third inning against the Houston Astros at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 20, 2016 in Baltimore, Maryland.  (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
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Bad news for the Orioles, as they placed their best starter, Chris Tillman, on the 15-day disabled list last night with an inflamed shoulder. Tillman received a cortisone shot but he’s getting the time off nonetheless. He’s expected to be activated on September 5.

The Orioles’ rotation has been thin all year, but Tillman has been great. He’s 15-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 153 innings of work. His last start, however, on August 20, was awful. He gave up six runs on six hits in two innings. Tillman says it was the result of rust due to a nine-day layoff, but it’s hard to imagine that whatever is bothering his shoulder didn’t have an impact on the outing. Ubaldo Jimenez will get the start in Tillman’s place Thursday. He has . . . been less than reliable on the year.

Baltimore wakes up this morning two games behind Toronto and Boston in the AL East but safely in the second Wild Card position for the time being.