Buster Posey AP

NLDS Preview: Giants vs. Reds

9 Comments

You can’t predict baseball, but you can at least lay out the parameters. So let’s take a look at what the Giants and Reds have in store for us in the National League Division Series.

The Teams

San Francisco Giants (94-68) vs. Cincinnati Reds (97-65)

The Matchups

Game 1 Saturday in San Francisco: Johnny Cueto vs. Matt Cain
Game 2 Sunday in San Francisco: Bronson Arroyo vs. Madison Bumgarner
Game 3 Tuesday in Cincinnati: Undecided vs. Mat Latos
Game 4 (if necessary) Wednesday in Cincinnati
Game 5 (if necessary) Thursday in Cincinnati

Analysis: You have to like the Giants’ chances in Game 1, as Cain has a 2.62 ERA at home dating back to 2009. Only eight pitchers have been better during the same timespan. I’m not crazy about Arroyo going in Game 2, but Bumgarner allowed four earned runs or more in five out of his final seven starts. And that would worry me a bit if I was a Giants fan.

We know who the Reds will put out there for the first three games, but Bruce Bochy hasn’t announced who will start Game 3 because he has left open the possibility that Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito and Ryan Vogelsong will pitch in relief at some point during the first two games of the series. It’s likely that Homer Bailey will start Game 4 for the Reds and while he was excellent down the stretch (including a no-hitter against the Pirates on September 28), he had a 5.16 ERA in 17 starts at home this year. Meanwhile, his 2.32 ERA on the road was the best among qualified starters. But enough of my second-guessing.

The Storylines

  • The Reds took the season series 4-3 while outscoring the Giants 28-21.
  • It’s critical for the Giants to get at least one, maybe both, of the games at AT&T Park, as the Reds finished tied with the Cardinals and Nationals for the best home record (50-31) in the National League.
  • This might surprise you, but the Giants actually outscored the Reds (718-669) during the regular season. Of course, Dusty Baker relied on Drew Stubbs (.277 on-base percentage) and Zack Cozart (.288 on-base percentage) out of the top two spots in the order for the majority of the season. Oh, and the Reds only got 111 games out of Joey Votto. To be fair, Brandon Phillips has batted primarily out of the leadoff spot since Votto returned from the disabled list. He’s no on-base machine, but that’s still a pretty significant improvement for the top of the order.
  • When Melky Cabrera was suspended for testing positive for synthetic testosterone, there were plenty of folks who were ready to write the Giants off as a potential playoff team. But they went 30-15 over their final 45 games. Buster Posey has led the charge in his first season back from a devastating ankle injury, winning his first career batting crown* while emerging as one of the favorites for National League MVP, but Marco Scutaro and Angel Pagan have also been pretty good. Hunter Pence somehow managed 45 RBI in 59 games after coming over from the Phillies, despite batting just .219/.287/.384 with a .671 OPS. Pablo Sandoval finally showed some pop down the stretch, so perhaps he’s finally back on track from hamate bone surgery. Still, relying on Gregor Blanco and Xavier Nady in left field has to catch up with the Giants at some point, doesn’t it?
  • What are we going to get from Lincecum? He finished the season with a 5.18 ERA, the fourth-highest among qualified starters. And while he had better results during the second half (3.83 ERA), he walked 40 batters in 89 1/3 innings, including 22 in 35 innings in September. He had a 6.43 ERA on the road this season while allowing 16 homers in 84 innings, so a start at Great American Ballpark could be good news for the Reds.
  • Joey Votto doesn’t have a home run since June 24, but he batted .316/.505/.421 with eight doubles and a 20/28 K/BB ratio over 105 plate appearances after returning from knee surgery. While the Reds would sure love for him to provide some power alongside the likes of Jay Bruce and Ryan Ludwick, he’s still one of the toughest outs in the game. It says something when you lead the league in walks despite missing two months.
  • The Giants were fourth in the National League this season with 118 stolen bases (that number includes 13 from Melky Cabrera) while the Reds were 14th with 87 swipes. It’s fair to expect the Giants to be a bit more active on the basepaths, but remember that Ryan Hanigan threw out attempted basestealers at a major-league best rate of 48 percent this season.
  • Buoyed by strong performances by Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall and Jonathan Broxton, Reds relievers finished first in the majors this season with a 2.65 ERA. And that’s despite losing closer Ryan Madson to Tommy John surgery during spring training. Meanwhile, the Giants were eighth in the National League with a 3.56 bullpen ERA. Bruce Bochy has relied on multiple relievers out of the closer role since Brian Wilson had Tommy John surgery, including Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez and Jeremy Affeldt. I don’t think this matchup is as stark as the numbers would have you believe, but I would rather be on the side with Chapman assuming he’s over his recent shoulder fatigue.

Prediction

Boy, this is a tough one. I really think this has the chance to be the most competitive division series matchup. If the Reds can get one of the two games in San Francisco, they should have the advantage coming home. And I think they’ll pull it off. The Reds might be the best all-around team in the entire playoffs.

REDS WIN THE SERIES 3-2

David Ortiz: “I was born to play against the Yankees”

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 29:  David Ortiz  #34 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates after hitting a two-run home run in the eighth inning during the game against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park on April 29, 2016 in Boston, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
Getty Images
3 Comments

David Ortiz has used Derek Jeter’s Player’s Tribune as his personal podium all year as he says goodbye to the Major Leagues. He continues that today, on the eve of his final series against the Yankees.

In it Ortiz talks about what playing the Yankees meant to him over the course of his career. About how the fan hate was real but something he embraced. About how the series back in the days of Jeter and Pettitte and Mariano and Mussina were “wars.” He also talks about how the Yankees were basically everything when he was growing up in the Dominican Republic. The only caps and shirts you saw were Yankees shirts and how they were about the only team you could see on TV there. As such, coming to Boston and then playing against the Yankees was a big, big deal.

Ortiz says “[s]ome players are born to be Yankees, you know what I’m saying? I was born to play against the Yankees.”

And he’ll get to do it only three more times.

And That Happened: Monday’s scores and highlights

DETROIT, MI - SEPTEMBER 26: Cleveland Indians player celebrate clinching the Central Division Championship after defeating the Detroit Tigers 7-4 at Comerica Park on September 26, 2016 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)
Getty Images
19 Comments

Here are the scores. Here are the highlights:

Marlins 7, Mets 3: Giancarlo Stanton exhorting his teammates to “play the game like Jose would play the game.” The club kneeling in prayer beforehand. Dee Gordon’s right-handed hitting tribute and dramatic home run. A team which had every reason to be lost in a fog playing dominant baseball. Leaving their caps on the mound after the game. It was moving and sad but simultaneously triumphant and uplifting. A reminder of how beloved a teammate and person Jose Fernandez was to those who knew him. A reminder that people play this game and their personal bonds are tighter than we usually acknowledge.

Diamondbacks 14, Nationals 4: One of many routs last night. Here. Cubs over Pirates. Reds over Cardinals. Clinton over Trump. It’s almost as if one side showed up prepared and ready to play and the other side was clearly overmatched and out of their depth. At least the baseball teams get to do this 161 other times rather than have it be a mere three games. Oh well. Here Yasmany Tomas drove in five with a three-run homer and an RBI double. Jean Segura homered twice, driving in three. If the loss wasn’t bad enough, losing Wilson Ramos to a knee injury is something that could severely impact the Nationals’ prospects in the playoffs. Just as disastrous night all around.

Cubs 12, Pirates 2: Chicago picks up its 100th win of the year thanks in large part to a huge night from Javier Baez who drove in six with a grand slam and a two-run single. Meanwhile Kyle Hendricks continued to make his Cy Young case, scattering seven hits across six scoreless innings while watching his ERA sink to 1.99 and picking up his 16th win.

Yankees 7, Blue Jays 5: Maturity abounds as Luis Severino hit Josh Donaldson, the Jays throw at Chase Headley in retaliation and then the Yankees throw at Justin Smoak in retaliation for the retaliation. Based on the video and the game situation it did not appear as if Dondaldson was hit intentionally, but big macho baseball men gotta be big macho baseball men. After Headley was hit the Yankees had to put their big macho baseball men pants on too, apparently. They’re lucky no one was hurt. Luis Severino and J.A. Happ will almost certainly face fines or suspensions. As for the game, Mark Teixeira hit a tying homer in the ninth inning, flipping his bat and then jawing from his dugout, yelling “blown save!” to Jason Grilli. Aaron Hicks subsequently hit a two-run homer and the Yankees’ four-run lead heading into the bottom of the ninth was too much for the Jays to overcome.

Indians 7, Tigers 4: The Indians clinch the AL Central, but it wasn’t all champagne and Budweiser, as ace Corey Kluber had to leave the game with groin tightness. Assuming he’s given an off day for what would’ve been his final start he’ll get a good week and a half or so of rest if he needs it before the ALDS starts. Coco Crisp and Roberto Perez homered for the Indians, and Jason Kipnis doubled in a run. The Tigers are now two games back of the idle Orioles in the Wild Card.

Brewers 8, Rangers 3Jonathan Villar homered twice and had a career-high five RBI as the Brewers put the Rangers a game back in the loss column of the Red Sox for home field advantage in the playoffs.

White Sox 7, Rays 1Justin Morneau and Carlos Sanchez each hit a two-run homer and James Shields won his first game in two months. He’s 4-11 since coming over from San Diego.

Mariners 4, Astros 3: Robinson Cano homered in the top of the 11th to give the M’s the win. He hit a homer in the third inning too. The victory moves Seattle into a tie with Detroit, two games behind Baltimore for the second AL Wild Card. Houston has droppd four of five,and is now three and a half games back in the race.

Reds 15, Cardinals 2: Cincinnati jumped out to a 10-0 lead by the top of the fourth. Four homers from the Reds, two from Adam Duvall, who was 4-for-6 with five RBI on the night. The Cards are one game out of Wild Card position behind the Giants now.

Angels 2, Athletics 1: The clubs exchanged solo shots — Mike Trout for the Angels, Steven Vogt for the A’s — but the tie was broken by Albert Pujols‘ run-scoring groundout in the eighth.