I’d never recommend using betting lines for actual betting, but the Las Vegas odds do provide a clear picture of which teams are the favorites and which teams are the underdogs. And that can be valuable come playoff time, when every player on every team loves to say stuff like “no one thought we would win” and “we shocked the world” and all that.
For tonight’s Wild Card playoff games both home teams are favored, and by sizable margins.
Kris Medlen and the Braves are -170 favorites over Kyle Lohse and the Cardinals, which means you’d have to risk $170 to win $100 and Atlanta must win at least 63 percent of the time for that to be a profitable bet.
Yu Darvish and the Rangers are -190 favorites over Joe Saunders and the Orioles, which means you’d have to risk $190 to win $100 and Texas must win at least 66 percent of the time for that to be a profitable bet.
Now, those aren’t huge favorites because during the regular season there are regularly teams with -250 or even -275 lines and sometimes it goes as high as -300, but the Braves and Rangers are definitely expected to win tonight.
Update (5:04 PM EST): The White Sox will receive pitchers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning from the Nationals, per Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago. MLB Pipeline rated them No. 1, 3, and 6 in the Nationals’ minor league system.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Nationals are close to acquiring outfielder Adam Eaton from the White Sox. He notes that outfielder Victor Robles, the Nationals’ No. 2 prospect according to MLB Pipeline, is not included in the deal.
Eaton, 28, is signed to a very team-friendly contract. He’ll earn $4 million in 2017, $6 million in ’18, and $8.4 million in ’19. His controlling team then has a club option worth $9.5 million in 2020 with a $1.5 million buyout and a $10.5 million club option in ’21 with a $1.5 million buyout.
This past season, Eaton was worth 3.9 Wins Above Replacement according to Baseball Reference after playing significantly above-average defense while batting .284/.362/.428 with 14 home runs, 59 RBI, 91 runs scored, and 14 stolen bases in 706 plate appearances.
If the deal goes through, the Nationals would move Trea Turner from center field to shortstop. Meanwhile, the White Sox continue their teardown after trading Chris Sale to the Red Sox on Tuesday.
ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that the Marlins have signed veteran catcher A.J. Ellis to a one-year, $2.5 million deal.
Ellis, 35, began the 2016 season with the Dodgers but went to the Phillies in the Carlos Ruiz trade near the end of August. Overall, he hit .216/.301/.298 in 196 plate appearances.
Ellis will back up J.T. Realmuto behind the dish.