Miguel Cabrera

Cabrera vs. Trout brings to mind 2001 AL MVP battle


Except this time, the shoe is on the other foot.

2001 was probably the height of the steroid era. Over in the NL, Barry Bonds had his record 73-homer campaign, with Sammy Sosa chipping in 64 and even Luis Gonzalez hitting 57. Things weren’t quite so silly in the American League, but consider that Rafael Palmeiro had 47 homers and 123 RBI and finished tied for 14th in the MVP balloting.

There were five legitimate candidates for AL MVP that year, none necessarily head and shoulders above the others:

Roberto Alomar (2B Cle): .336/.415/.541, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 30 SB in 575 AB
Bret Boone (2B Sea): .331/.372/.578, 37 HR, 141 RBI, 5 SB in 623 AB
Jason Giambi (1B Oak): .342/.477/.660, 38 HR, 120 RBI, 2 SB in 520 AB
Alex Rodriguez (SS Tex): .318/.399/.622, 52 HR, 135 RBI, 18 SB in 632 AB
Ichiro Suzuki (RF Sea): .350/.381/.457, 8 HR, 69 RBI, 56 SB in 692 AB

Most correctly figured the balloting would come down to Ichiro and Giambi. Ichiro had the narrative, having just arrived from Japan in time to lead the Mariners to a record 116-win season. He was also vying to become the first player since Fred Lynn in 1975 to win both the Rookie of the Year and the MVP in the same year. Giambi was second to Ichiro in average, first in OBP and first in slugging, all for a 102-win A’s club. Maybe Rodriguez was truly the AL’s best player, but his Rangers won 73 games; he ended up finishing sixth in the balloting.

Of course, statheads at the time believed Giambi was more valuable than Ichiro. We weren’t quite so noisy about it then, but it seemed pretty obvious to us. No amount of speed and defense from a right fielder was making up for 300 points of OPS. In fact, Ichiro wasn’t even the Mariners’ best player; Boone had pretty much the same OBP, an extra 100 points of slugging and probably the greater defensive value of the two.

Alas, Ichiro won in a close vote. He got 11 of the 28 first-place votes, compared to eight for Giambi, and he won 289 points to 281. Boone got seven first-place votes and finished third. Alomar, playing for a first-place Cleveland team, got the remaining two first-place votes and finished fourth.

11 years later things have swung the other way around. The 2012 AL MVP will come down to these two guys:

Miguel Cabrera (3B Det): .325/.390/.601, 43 HR, 136 RBI, 4 SB in 612 AB
Mike Trout (CF LAA): .321/.395/.557, 30 HR, 80 RBI, 48 SB in 546 AB

And now the statheads favor the all-around player. It’s not hard to see why. Ichiro and Giambi were separated by 300 points of OPS. Cabrera and Trout are separated by 40. Defense and baserunning certainly makes up for that.

As for the Triple Crown, it’s really neat, but in the end, it wouldn’t make Cabrera any less valuable if someone else in the league had hit .360 or finished with 50 homers. Cabrera isn’t outpacing the rest of the league this year like Giambi did in 2001. Giambi had 97 points of OPS on anyone else in the league. Cabrera has 39. Giambi’s OPS+ was 199, Cabrera’s is 164. Cabrera had higher OPSs and OPS+s in both 2010 and ’11.

And Trout, obviously, is hitting a whole lot better than Ichiro did in 2001. He’s second in the AL in OPS. Ichiro was 26th. Trout has a 167 OPS+, Ichiro was at 126.

There is one complicating factor: because Trout opened the year in the minors, Cabrera has played an extra 22 games. That carries quite a bit of weight in my mind. I’d still vote Trout, but I’m not going to be all that disappointed when Cabrera wins.

It seems to me that everyone dug in on Trout vs. Cabrera weeks ago, which is a shame, because it really has rendered September irrelevant. It’s also pretty sad, since it seems like no one can write a column defending their choice without attacking the other side.

Here’s the way I see it: Trout is having a historic season, with a legitimate flaw in that he was a non-factor in April. Cabrera is having a Cabrera season; he’s one of the game’s three best hitters and thus is worthy of MVP consideration on an annual basis. He’s about due to win one. He hasn’t been the best player, but he has been awfully good for 22 more games than the other guy. And one imagines Trout will be a candidate a few more times before he’s done.

Photo of the Day: Colby Rasmus just wants to love on everybody

Colby Rasmus

Colby Rasmus hit a big home run last night to set off the scoring and to set the tone for the Astros.

After the game he spoke to Jeff Passan of Yahoo and voiced some nice perspective and maturity as well, acknowledging that his time and St. Louis and Toronto left him with a reputation that he’d rather not have follow him around forever, saying “I don’t want them to say Colby Rasmus was a piece of crap because he had all of this time and just wanted to be a douche. I just try to love on everybody.”

Fair. By the way, this is what Rasmus looked like either just before or just after telling reporters that he “just tries to love on everybody.”


Ready for some lovin’?

There’s no one to blame in Yankees’ loss

Joe Girardi

You’re going to boo All-Star Brett Gardner for striking out against a Cy Young contender?

You’re going to bash Alex Rodriguez for going hitless in another postseason game, three years after his last one?

Maybe you’d prefer to put it all on Masahiro Tanaka for giving up two solo homers to a lineup full of 20-homer guys?

The truth is that the Yankees were supposed to lose tonight. They were facing an outstanding left-hander with their forever-lefty-heavy lineup, and they simply didn’t have anyone pitching like an ace to set themselves up nicely for a one-game, winner-take-all showdown. The 3-0 result… well, that’s how this was supposed to go down.

It didn’t necessarily mean it would; what fun would it be if the better team always won? And the Astros might not even be a better team than the Yankees. However, the Astros with Dallas Keuchel on the mound were certainly a better team than the Yankees with whoever they picked to throw.

I just don’t see where it’s worth putting any blame tonight. Joe Girardi? He could have started John Ryan Murphy over Brian McCann against the tough lefty, but he wasn’t willing to risk Tanaka losing his comfort zone by using a backup catcher.

The front office could have added more talent, perhaps outbidding the Blue Jays for David Price or the Royals for Johnny Cueto, and set themselves up better for the postseason. However, that would have cost them Luis Severino and/or Greg Bird, both of whom went on to play key roles as the Yankees secured the wild card. Would it really have been worth it? I don’t think so.

Tanaka gave the Yankees what they should have expected. Had Keuchel’s stuff been a little off on short rest, Tanaka’s performance would have kept the Yankees in the game.

Keuchel, though, was on his game from the first pitch. The Astros bullpen might have been a bit more vulnerable, and late at-bats from Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Rodriguez and McCann definitely left something to be desired. Still, on the whole, the lack of offense was quite a team effort.

The Yankees got beat by a better team tonight.  I’m not sure the Astros would have been better in Games 2-7 in a longer series, but they had everything in their favor in this one.