In making their trades earlier this week, the Phillies showed they weren’t interested in paying Hunter Pence or Shane Victorino market value in 2013. Now they have three outfield spots in flux going forward, and while they’re hoping Dominic Brown can hold down right field, there’s already plenty of speculation that they might target free agent-to-be Michael Bourn to fill center.
Corey Seidman breaks it all down at CSNPhilly.com, trying to figure out how much Bourn will command this winter and whether the Phillies could sign him and still fill other needs.
Personally, I’d pass on Bourn. He was a deserving All-Star this year, but a lot of that is his defense. Players with his offensive profile haven’t aged very well. Kenny Lofton might be the obvious comparable, but Bourn simply isn’t at his level. A career .275/.338/.369 hitter, he’s actually much closer to Luis Polonia (.294/.342/.369), Roger Cedeno (.275/.342/.374) and Tom Goodwin (.277/.340/.337) through age 29. Lofton was at .313/.379/.431 through his age-29 season.
If the Phillies could pay a premium to get Bourn to agree to a three-year deal, then he might be worth it. However, the guess here is that he’ll probably get five years from someone.