alex rodriguez and barry bonds

Will injuries keep Alex Rodriguez from breaking Barry Bonds’ home run record?


Not so long ago Alex Rodriguez seemed very likely to finish his career as the all-time home run king.

He won the MVP in 2007 with a monster season, hitting .314 with 54 homers, 156 RBIs, and a 1.067 OPS. At that point he was 31 years old with 518 career homers, had hit at least 35 homers every season for a decade, and had played at least 150 games in seven straight years.

And then he started to get hurt. Rodriguez smacked 35 homers in 2008, but missed 24 games with injuries. And then he missed 38 games in 2009, 25 games in 2010, and 63 games last season. And now Rodriguez is expected to be sidelined until September with a broken hand courtesy of a Felix Hernandez pitch last night.

In addition to missing 150 games from 2008-2011 and what will probably be another 40 or so games this year Rodriguez has also seen his power numbers decline significantly in his mid-30s. Through that MVP-winning 2007 season he averaged 45 homers per 162 games, but from 2008-2010 he averaged 39 homers per 162 games and during the past two seasons he’s averaged 27 homers per 162 games.

Rodriguez has 644 career homers, which is the most in baseball history through age 36–by 33 over Babe Ruth, 52 over Hank Aaron, and 77 over Barry Bonds. However, between his injuries and rapidly declining power Rodriguez is far from a sure thing to hit the 119 homers needed to surpass Bonds as the all-time leader.

Barry Bonds       762
Hank Aaron        755
Babe Ruth         714
Willie Mays       660
Alex Rodriguez    644

He’s signed through 2017 and the Yankees still owe him $114 million, so Rodriguez has plenty of motivation to stick around into his 40s, but he’d have to hit 20-25 homers per season for the final five years of that contract to become the all-time leader. Rodriguez is certainly still capable of that, but he’s also hit a total of just 29 homers with a modest .455 slugging percentage in 192 games during the past two seasons.

If he’s going to break the home run record it’s going to be by a much narrower margin than once seemed likely, which means every broken bone, minor surgery, and strained muscle takes a big chunk out of his chances.

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Matt Harvey missed a mandatory workout today

Matt Harvey

Just when Matt Harvey drama seemed to be subsiding, Matt Harvey drama begins anew.

Adam Rubin of ESPN New York reports that the Mets starter missed a mandatory workout today at Citi Field. Sandy Alderson had no information about why Harvey was gone and Harvey was not excused by the team. Alderson gave no comment.

Just a few minutes ago Harvey showed up and upon getting in front of reporters issued a brief statement with little elaboration:


Because this is New York, you know darn well there will be more to this. We’ll update when it comes out.

UPDATE: Harvey is being fined an undisclosed amount. You may now commence writing your “Matt Harvey just doesn’t get it!” columns.

Dan Jennings asked to return as the Marlins GM

Dan Jennings

Dan Jennings‘ tenure as the Marlins manager has not been great and the team is now actively looking for his replacement. But his old job is there waiting for him if he wants it, reports Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald: Jennings has been asked to come back as the team’s general manager.

Or maybe “asked” is not correct. Team President David Samson said “there’s no decision” for Jennings to make and that he’s still “a signed member” of the team’s front office, reporting to baseball operations president Michael Hill.

Reports last month suggested that Jennings would take a wait-and-see approach regarding returning to the Marlins front office, with hopes of possibly landing a GM job in another organization with greater control than he’s had and will have with the multi-headed Marlins management team. The Mariners, for one, were a team Jennings was said to have his eye on. But that job has been filled and it would not seem like such opportunities have presented themselves to him.

So: it would seem a good bet that Jennings is back upstairs with the Marlins soon. Because the Marlins fully expect him to be.