It’s easy to see why the Phillies are discouraged. Despite possessing the highest payroll, they currently have the 12th-best record of the 16 National League teams. They’re on pace for 72 wins, which would be their lowest total since 2000 and a whopping 30-game drop from last year.
Still, a shakeup just doesn’t make much sense.
Chase Utley is back. Ryan Howard is on target to return immediately after the All-Star break. Roy Halladay is throwing without pain and could be back within three weeks.
Carlos Ruiz is having a great year. Jimmy Rollins and Hunter Pence both excelled during June. Juan Pierre is still hitting, believe it or not, and even Placido Polanco has gotten his act together of late.
On the pitching side, the bullpen aside from Jonathan Papelbon has been a mess. However, Cole Hamels is an All-Star. Vance Worley has a 2.92 ERA. Cliff Lee may be winless, but he has an 89/19 K/BB ratio in 89 1/3 innings. For that matter, Joe Blanton is at 89/15 in 104 innings.
Despite the absences of Utley and Howard, the Phillies rank seventh in the NL in runs scored per game. Last year, their 102-win team ranked seventh in the NL in runs scored per game. The problem is that the pitching has taken a major hit. However, there’s no reason to think the rotation won’t finish strong.
Look at my standings column from earlier this afternoon; no NL teams are running away and hiding. The Mets and Pirates are on pace to tie for the second wild card with 87 wins, and in all honesty, it seems optimistic that either team will really finish that well. The Phillies won 63 percent of their games last year. If they can do that over their final 81 games of 2012, they’ll finish with 87 wins. Even 85 could make them a possibility for the postseason. It’s an uphill climb for sure, but it’d be crazy to write them off. Instead of thinking about trading Hamels and Shane Victorino, the Phillies should go get themselves as setup man and try to make a run.