We talk often about how crazy it is that managers won’t use their best relievers in tight spots, with guys like Jonathan Papelbon and Craig Kimbrel watching like spectators as their teams lose games.
It’s the save star that drives this. The only stat I can think of which actually controls how the game is played as opposed to merely reflecting what happens. It’s a ridiculous state of affairs. But how did we get here?
David Schoenfield answers that question over at ESPN today with a great post, drawing on history and a little Bill James to explain how we got from a world in which starters completed nearly half the games pitched to one in which relief aces through as many as 200 innings a year to today’s state of affairs where managers will only use their best short men if and only if the game is already in hand.
Go educate yourself. It’s great reading. It’s also the basis for a great retort for the next time you hear someone decrying sabermetrically-oriented people for allowing stats to dominate their understanding of the game. Because really, it’s overwhelmingly the non-sabermetrically-oriented people who perpetuate the legend of the closer, and the closer itself is a creature of a statistic.
The Orioles singlehandedly kept the rumor mill churning this weekend. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports that the club is interested in making a play for free agent right-hander Lance Lynn, adding him to a list of potential candidates that also includes free agent righty Alex Cobb. The two are expected to command similar contracts in free agency, but Morosi notes that the Orioles may prefer Cobb based on his familiarity with the AL East.
Lynn, 30, is two years removed from Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Despite missing the 2016 season, he bounced back with a respectable 11-8 record in 33 starts and complemented his efforts with a 3.43 ERA, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.4 SO/9 over 186 1/3 innings for the 2017 Cardinals. He lost several days with a blister on his pitching hand in early September, but managed to avoid any major injuries and can reasonably be expected to shoulder another heavy workload in 2018.
Lynn may not be the Orioles’ first choice to beef up their starting rotation, but there’s no doubt that he’ll be in high demand as one of very few viable starters on the market this winter. The veteran righty rejected his one-year, $17.4 million qualifying offer from the Cardinals on Thursday and will likely be seeking a multi-year contract, one that Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch estimates around five years and $100+ million. If the Orioles are willing to bite that bullet, they’ll still need to compensate the Cardinals with their third pick in next year’s draft.