Great Moments in Prognosticating

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Tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, just before the Padres-Nationals game got underway:

Tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, just after the top half of the first ended:

 

Strasburg allowed three runs on three hits in that inning. Indeed, the first batter he faced, Will Venable, hit a double. He added a triple his second time at bat.

This isn’t intended as a slap at Ladson. But it is why, when people ask me why HBT doesn’t do more look-aheads to the day’s action, make predictions or do things like “keys to the game” posts, I look at them like they’re crazy.

It’s baseball. If you want to hear talking heads talk the hell out of upcoming games tune in to an NFL pregame show. You can’t predict baseball.  Too many variables. Too many games. Almost nothing in the way of an effective, team-based before-the-fact strategy.

Phillies, Red Sox interested in Carlos Santana

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The Phillies and Red Sox appear intent on pursuing free agent first baseman Carlos Santana, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports. Santana rejected a one-year, $17.4 million qualifying offer from the Indians on Thursday and is expected to draw widespread interest on the market this winter. The Mets, Mariners, Angels and Indians could make a play for the infielder, though no serious offers have been made this early in the offseason.

Santana, 31, is coming off of a seven-year track with the Indians. He batted .259/.363/.455 with 23 home runs and 3.0 fWAR last season, making 2017 the fourth-most valuable year of his career to date. Although he was primarily stationed at first base over the last year, he could step back into a hybrid first base/DH role with the Red Sox, who are hurting for infield depth with Hanley Ramirez still working his way back from shoulder surgery.

As for Santana’s other suitors, the Mariners are far less likely to pursue a deal after trading for Ryon Healy last Wednesday. Neither the Mets nor the Phillies have a DH spot to offer the veteran infielder, and the Phillies’ Rhys Hoskins appears to be blocking the way at first base. Then again, Santana may not find a more enticing offer outside of Cleveland, where Edwin Encarnacion might otherwise be the club’s best option at first base. During the GM meetings, Indians’ GM Mike Chernoff said he “love to have both [Santana and Jay Bruce] back” in 2018, but hasn’t backed up that love with any contract talks just yet.