Probably, yes.

However, I think even the most ardent sabermetric experts would admit that ‘career norms’ are quite nebulous when you are discussing the best players in the game in the thick of their primes.

To simply assume that Matt Kemp will have something close to the same season he did last year is reasonable, but to rule out something greater because he cooled down for the last two weeks is not reasonable.

In each season, save for 2008, we know that Hamilton has dealt with injury hampering his ability to produce. What if (and i know its a contract year) he is as close to 100% healthy for the first time since 2008? If he remains reasonably healthy the remainder of this season, is it realistic to assume that he’s only gonna hit 14 more HR (32 is the most he’s hit in a season) the rest of the way? Or only 18 more HR (36 is his career 162-game Average)?

Do I really think he’ll hit 86 HR for the season? It’s possible, but not probable. So, no I don’t.

Do I think something closer to 50 HR is a real possibility right now? Yes, I certainly do.

And 50 HR would be no where near his ‘career norms’.

]]>The first people to criticize projections are the last to learn and understand what they convey.

On the other hand what I posted above is a simple statistical pace based on how he *is* performing this year.

Pace is rarely maintained throughout the course on an entire season, but is an indication of “what if” a player does maintain that pace.

So, let’s rephrase . . . at Josh Hamilton’s level of play it is currently *possible* that he could hit 86 HR, but not *probable*.

Hamilton will also cool down and reach career norms.

]]>He has played 31 of a possible 34 Games = .9117647058823529

He has hit 18 HR in those 31 Games = .5806451612903226

He has 41 RBI in those 31 Games = 1.32258064516129

91% of 162 Games = 147.42 Games

147 Games times .5806451612903226 HR per Game = 85 HR’s

147 Games times 1.32258064516129 RBI per Game = 194 RBI

So with today’s game Hamilton’s HR pace went up by almost 2 total HR’s – but his RBI pace dropped by about 1.6 RBI.

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