Francisco Liriano turned in his third straight clunker last night against the Yankees, failing to make it out of the third inning. Through three starts he has an 11.91 ERA and .407 opponents’ batting average while throwing 138 strikes and 103 balls.
It’s become increasingly popular to say that Liriano’s struggles are mental and I’m sure there’s plenty of truth to that narrative, but it’s also worth noting that his raw stuff is simply nowhere near as good as it was in 2010, let alone in 2006.
As an unhittable rookie in 2006 his average fastball was 94.7 miles per hour and in his bounceback 2010 season it was 93.7 mph, but since the start of last season it’s 91.6 mph.
It certainly isn’t shocking that a one-time power pitcher would lose confidence as his velocity vanishes and his fastball becomes far more hittable. Perhaps it’s a chicken-or-egg scenario and there’s no doubt that he’s failed to make adjustments, but to suggest that Liriano’s collapse is entirely mental seems way too simplistic. Whatever the case, as an impending free agent the increasingly ugly outings are costing Liriano millions and the Twins must be running out of patience.