We’re only one game into the season and there are already many questions about the Red Sox pitching staff. Andrew Bailey’s recent thumb surgery has unexpectedly pushed Alfredo Aceves into the closer role while Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront are holding down the final two spots in the starting rotation.
It’s much too soon make any judgements about whether these moves will be successful, but Red Sox president Larry Lucchino told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he’s willing to increase the payroll to improve the pitching staff.
One obvious target is Roy Oswalt, who the Red Sox courted during the offseason. He’s currently aiming for a midseason return with a contender. His possible addition would potentially allow Bard or Doubront to move to the bullpen. The Red Sox have also had their eye on free agent reliever Mike Gonzalez, though he may eventually be redundant with Rich Hill on the comeback trail from Tommy John surgery. Of course, they could also increase payroll via a trade before the deadline.
The Red Sox began the season with a payroll of approximately $173 million and Lucchino said during an appearance on MLB Network Radio that he expects the team to be over the luxury tax threshold regardless.
“Our goal is to field a team with more homegrown players, fewer free agents, and to have a more manageable payroll down the road. But if you’re asking about this year, we understand that each year has to be taken on its own and this year our payroll is going to be, I’d hate to make a guess, but it’ll be well over the $178 million dollar threshold.’’
Similar to the Yankees, the Red Sox are tightening their belts with the new collective bargaining agreement in mind. With taxes shooting sky high, they can get a rebate on some luxury tax payments if they get under the threshold just once and will only be taxed as a first-time offender if they go back over in a future season.
If you are old enough and lame enough as I am, you may have lurked around on sabermetic message boards in the 1990s. If you did, you may have heard of Sherri Nichols, who back in the day, was a significant contributor to the advancement of statistical analysis, particularly defensive analysis.
While it’s probably better that not everyone is as old and nerdy as me, the downside of it is that most people haven’t heard of Nichols and know nothing about her contributions. That changes today with Ben Lindbergh’s excellent analysis of Nichols and her work over at The Ringer, which I recommend that you all read.
The short version: Nichols is the one who planted the seed about on-base percentage being valuable in the mind of Baseball Prospectus Founder Gary Huckabay, back in the late 80s. She’s also the one most responsible for the rise of zone-based defensive metrics in the 1990s, such as Defensive Average, which she created and which served as the basis for other such metrics going forward. She also played a critical role in the development of RetroSheet, which collected almost all extant box score and play-by-play information going back to the turn of the 20th century, thereby making so much of the information available at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs possible. A key contribution there: making the information free and available to everyone, rather than closing the underlying data off as proprietary and either charging for access or keeping it in-house like some recent data collectors have chosen to do. Ahem.
A larger takeaway than all of Nichols’ contributions is just how loathe the baseball community was to listen to a woman back then. I mean, yeah, they’re still loathe to listen to women now, as indicated by the small number of women who hold jobs in baseball operations departments, but back then it was even worse, as evidenced by Lindbergh’s stories and Nichols’ anecdotes.
A great read and a great history lesson.