Dan Duquette

Springtime Storylines: Can Dan Duquette lead the Orioles out of the wildnerness?

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Between now and Opening Day, HardballTalk will take a look at each of baseball’s 30 teams, asking the key questions, the not-so-key questions, and generally breaking down their chances for the 2012 season. Up next: The Baltimore Orioles.

The Big Question: Can Dan Duquette lead the Orioles out of the wilderness?

This is not one of those previews in which we say “if everything breaks right …” because there’s no way this team is challenging for a playoff spot. If you believe otherwise, look, I love your optimism, but this is not the place for you, ok?

No, the real question is how long it will be until the O’s are not the easy pick for last place, and that depends on one man right now: Dan Duquette, the Orioles new general manager.

Duquette hasn’t held a GM job in a decade. And he wasn’t at the top of Peter Angelos’ list this winter. But those aren’t the biggest issues because Duquette is bright and had a lot of success in his past life. No, at the moment the real issue is how free of a hand he has to do what needs to be done to fix this team. Specifically, overhaul the player development system that has been profoundly lacking in recent years.  There have been some changes so far, mostly a reshuffling of scouting operations and a commitment to Latin America that improves upon past efforts.

Ultimately, though, what has felled this organization is Peter Angelos and his impatience. It took years for the Orioles to slide from one of the best organizations in professional sports to where they are now. Will Angelos grant Duquette the time necessary to fix all of that damage, or will there be another GM and another plan in three years?

So what else is going on?

  • As Matthew noted yesterday, the fact that Jake Arrieta got the Opening Day start is special.  He had a 5.05 ERA in 22 starts last year, then had elbow surgery. This spring, he has a 6.14 ERA in his four starts. That’s the ace. It’s also evidence of just how thin the Orioles pitching is this year.
  • The book on this team of late has been “promise in the lineup, problems with the rotation.” But let’s be honest here: Nick Markakis has regressed since his breakout in 2008. Adam Jones has still not broken out like people keep thinking he will and despite hitting 37 homers, Mark Reynolds is actually kind of a scrub when you balance his power out with his atrocious defense. The position players here are still OK I suppose, but it’s only a strength compared to the pitching, not an absolute one.
  • Let’s be more optimistic: Manny Machado is one of the best prospects in the game. And, as a shortstop, can be the guy who anchors a team for years to come. He doesn’t turn 20 until July and he already more than held his own in single-A.  He is hope for the future, O’s fans.
  • More optimistic on the major league level: Matt Weiters broke out last year, hitting 22 homers and winning a Gold Glove. There’s likely even more where that came from. He’s good, everyone.

So how are they gonna do?

Ain’t gonna lie: they’re a last place team. And there’s not a lot of immediate hope for them to be better.  More likely: the season is dominated with trade talk involving Adam Jones, a Manny Machado Watch and a lot of games where the O’s give up, like 11 runs.

Wish I had more for you, people. But it’s gonna take Dan Duquette a while to sort this all out.

The Cubs will soon announce a five-year contract extension for Theo Epstein

CHICAGO, IL - JULY 27: Theo Epstein (R), President of Operations for the Chicago Cubs, talks with head football coach Jim Harbaugh of the University of Michigan before the game between the Chicago White Sox and the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on July 27, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois.  (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images)
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Carrie Muskat of MLB.com just tweeted that the Cubs will soon announce a five-year contract extension for president Theo Epstein. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that it’s worth in excess of $50 million.

He’s earned it. When he took over the Cubs in October, 2011 the Cubs were a last place team with an aging roster and a front office that was several years behind the state of the art in every conceivable way. Last year the Cubs made the playoffs and this year they are baseball’s best team by a large margin and the franchise looks poised to continue its success for some time.

So, yeah, I’d say locking Theo up is a good idea.

What’s on Tap: Previewing Wednesday’s action

BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 21:  Starting pitcher Clay Buchholz #11 of the Boston Red Sox throws to a Baltimore Orioles batter in the first inning at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 21, 2016 in Baltimore, Maryland.  (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
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The Red Sox will once again attempt to clinch the AL East after failing to do so on Tuesday night. They can seal the division with a win against the Yankees or a Blue Jays loss to the Orioles on Wednesday evening.

Clay Buchholz will take the hill for the BoSox against Yankees right-hander Bryan Mitchell in a 7:05 PM EDT start at Yankee Stadium. Buchholz hasn’t exactly been Mr. Reliable this season, holding a 5.00 ERA with an 87/53 K/BB ratio in 133 1/3 innings. However, he has been in three of four starts since returning to the rotation earlier this month. Over those four starts, he owns a 3.97 ERA and a 15/8 K/BB ratio in 22 2/3 innings.

Meanwhile, at the Rogers Centre, the Jays will send out Francisco Liriano against the Orioles’ Chris Tillman in a 7:07 PM EDT start. Liriano has been much improved since coming to the Jays from the Pirates, so the Orioles will have their hands full.

As for Wild Card action, the Royals can be eliminated if they lose to the Twins or if the Orioles beat the Jays. The Yankees can be eliminated by losing to the Red Sox and the Orioles defeating the Jays. In the National League, the Marlins can be eliminated by losing to the Mets or the Giants beating the Rockies.

The rest of Wednesday’s action…

Arizona Diamondbacks (Shelby Miller) @ Washington Nationals (Gio Gonzalez), 7:05 PM EDT

Boston Red Sox (Clay Buchholz) @ New York Yankees (Bryan Mitchell), 7:05 PM EDT

Chicago Cubs (Jake Arrieta) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Jameson Taillon), 7:05 PM EDT

Baltimore Orioles (Chris Tillman) @ Toronto Blue Jays (Francisco Liriano), 7:07 PM EDT

Cleveland Indians (Zach McAllister) @ Detroit Tigers (Michael Fulmer), 7:10 PM EDT

New York Mets (Seth Lugo) @ Miami Marlins (Jose Urena), 7:10 PM EDT

Philadelphia Phillies (Adam Morgan) @ Atlanta Braves (Mike Foltynewicz), 7:10 PM EDT

Minnesota Twins (Ervin Santana) @ Kansas City Royals (Jason Vargas), 7:15 PM EDT

Milwaukee Brewers (Chase Anderson) @ Texas Rangers (Cole Hamels), 8:05 PM EDT

Tampa Bay Rays (Blake Snell) @ Chicago White Sox (Miguel Gonzalez), 8:10 PM EDT

Cincinnati Reds (Anthony DeSclafani) @ St. Louis Cardinals (Mike Leake), 8:15 PM EDT

Oakland Athletics (Sonny Gray) @ Los Angeles Angels (Alex Meyer), 10:05 PM EDT

Los Angeles Dodgers (Jose De Leon) @ San Diego Padres (Luis Perdomo), 10:10 PM EDT

Colorado Rockies (Tyler Chatwood) @ San Francisco Giants (Jeff Samardzija), 10:15 PM EDT