About my projections


Since there have been plenty of questions following some recent entries here, let me tell you a bit about my Rotoworld projections:

– They’re done by hand. I look at past numbers and apply my own judgment.

– This is my 12th year doing a full set of projections. This year’s included about 760 hitters and 790 pitchers.

– I don’t claim to be the best at projecting performance. As far as I can tell, there is no system that routinely outperforms the pack.

– Where I thrive is in projecting playing time and situation-dependent stats, like runs, RBI and saves. Thus I do claim to sport some of the very best fantasy projections around, and there’s evidence backing that up.

So, yeah, take the OPS projections with a grain of salt. I’m just providing them for fun. Since we’re selling the draft guide on Rotoworld (and it brings in a very significant portion of our revenue from the year), I’m limited in what I can carry over here.

And if you don’t like the OPS projections for your favorite players, don’t worry too much about it. My median miss last year was 51 points. I was 304 points off on Adam Dunn. The one player I nailed exactly was Adam Jones at .785. Of the 208 players projected to receive at least 300 at-bats and finished with at least that many, I was within 30 points of OPS on 74 of them (36 percent) and at least 90 points off on 57 of them (27 percent).

Yadier Molina scratched from Cardinals’ lineup

molina getty

Yadier Molina was in the Cardinals’ initial, posted lineup for Game 4 of the NLDS this afternoon, but the injured catcher has been scratched and replaced by backup Tony Cruz.

Molina has been playing through a significant thumb injury and exited Game 3 early in obvious discomfort. He no doubt talked his way into the lineup, but manager Mike Matheny told reporters that Molina was removed due to “considerable weakness in his hand.”

Not only will the Cardinals try to stave off elimination without Molina behind the plate, if they are able to advance past the Cubs in the NLDS they could be without the seven-time All-Star catcher in the NLCS.

Robinson Cano underwent sports hernia surgery

Robinson Cano

The Mariners announced today that second baseman Robinson Cano underwent surgery on his “core muscles” today, to repair that which we more commonly refer to as a sports hernia.

Cano played through the injury during the second half of what was a below par season. Hit hit .387/.334/.486 on the year though, surprisingly, did much better in the second half, posting a line of .331/.387/.540. The hernia may have been bothersome, but it didn’t really hamper him, it would seem.

He’ll need six weeks of recovery time, but should be good to go by spring training, looking for a bounce back year.

NLDS, Game 4: Cardinals vs. Cubs lineups

John Lackey

Here are the Cardinals and Cubs lineups for Game 4 of the NLDS in Chicago:

3B Matt Carpenter
1B Stephen Piscotty
LF Matt Holliday
RF Jason Heyward
SS Jhonny Peralta
CF Randal Grichuk
2B Kolten Wong
C Yadier Molina Tony Cruz
SP John Lackey

Yadier Molina is in the lineup despite leaving Game 3 early with obvious discomfort in his injured thumb. Randal Grichuk starts in center field after Tommy Pham played there in Game 3, which is interesting because in Game 1 the Cardinals used Grichuk in right field and Jason Heyward in center field. John Lackey is starting on short rest after winning Game 1, as manager Mike Matheny bypassed Lance Lynn with the season on the line.

UPDATE: Molina has been scratched from the lineup and replaced by Tony Cruz.

CF Dexter Fowler
RF Jorge Soler
3B Kris Bryant
1B Anthony Rizzo
2B Starlin Castro
LF Kyle Schwarber
C Miguel Montero
SP Jason Hammel
SS Javier Baez

Addison Russell is out of the lineup after injuring his hamstring in Game 3, so Javier Baez is taking his place at shortstop and batting ninth behind the pitcher. Jorge Soler’s hot streak gets him another start in the No. 2 spot, with Kyle Schwarber batting sixth again. Jason Hammel makes his first start in 12 days.