About my projections

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Since there have been plenty of questions following some recent entries here, let me tell you a bit about my Rotoworld projections:

– They’re done by hand. I look at past numbers and apply my own judgment.

– This is my 12th year doing a full set of projections. This year’s included about 760 hitters and 790 pitchers.

– I don’t claim to be the best at projecting performance. As far as I can tell, there is no system that routinely outperforms the pack.

– Where I thrive is in projecting playing time and situation-dependent stats, like runs, RBI and saves. Thus I do claim to sport some of the very best fantasy projections around, and there’s evidence backing that up.

So, yeah, take the OPS projections with a grain of salt. I’m just providing them for fun. Since we’re selling the draft guide on Rotoworld (and it brings in a very significant portion of our revenue from the year), I’m limited in what I can carry over here.

And if you don’t like the OPS projections for your favorite players, don’t worry too much about it. My median miss last year was 51 points. I was 304 points off on Adam Dunn. The one player I nailed exactly was Adam Jones at .785. Of the 208 players projected to receive at least 300 at-bats and finished with at least that many, I was within 30 points of OPS on 74 of them (36 percent) and at least 90 points off on 57 of them (27 percent).

Autopsy report reveals morphine, Ambien in Roy Halladay’s system

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Traces of morphine, amphetamine, Prozac and Ambien were found in Roy Halladay’s system at the time of his death, according to the autopsy findings Zachary T. Sampson of the Tampa Bay Times reported Friday. The former Phillies and Blue Jays ace and two-time Cy Young Award winner was killed in a plane crash off the Gulf of Mexico last November. While the exact cause of the incident has not yet been determined, it was a combination of blunt force trauma and drowning that resulted in the 40-year-old’s death.

Further details from the NY Daily News revealed that Halladay sustained a fractured leg and a “subdural hemorrhage, multiple rib fractures, and lung, liver and spleen injuries” during the crash. As for the drugs present in his system, the autopsy report suggests that the presence of morphine could be linked to heroin use, though there’s no clear evidence that he did so.

The toxicology results also determined that Halladay had a blood-alcohol content level of 0.01. A BAC of 0.08 is the legal limit for operating a car, but current FAA regulations prohibit any alcohol consumption for eight hours before operating aircraft. Halladay was both the pilot and sole passenger aboard the plane when it crashed.

Previous statements from the National Transportation Safety Board indicate that the investigation is still ongoing and could take up to two years to resolve.