About my projections

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Since there have been plenty of questions following some recent entries here, let me tell you a bit about my Rotoworld projections:

– They’re done by hand. I look at past numbers and apply my own judgment.

– This is my 12th year doing a full set of projections. This year’s included about 760 hitters and 790 pitchers.

– I don’t claim to be the best at projecting performance. As far as I can tell, there is no system that routinely outperforms the pack.

– Where I thrive is in projecting playing time and situation-dependent stats, like runs, RBI and saves. Thus I do claim to sport some of the very best fantasy projections around, and there’s evidence backing that up.

So, yeah, take the OPS projections with a grain of salt. I’m just providing them for fun. Since we’re selling the draft guide on Rotoworld (and it brings in a very significant portion of our revenue from the year), I’m limited in what I can carry over here.

And if you don’t like the OPS projections for your favorite players, don’t worry too much about it. My median miss last year was 51 points. I was 304 points off on Adam Dunn. The one player I nailed exactly was Adam Jones at .785. Of the 208 players projected to receive at least 300 at-bats and finished with at least that many, I was within 30 points of OPS on 74 of them (36 percent) and at least 90 points off on 57 of them (27 percent).

Report: Dodgers are considering a trade for Addison Reed

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ESPN’s Buster Olney reports that the Dodgers are “exploring a possible deal” for Mets’ right-hander Addison Reed. It’s not the first time the righty has incurred interest from a top contender. The Brewers, Yankees and Red Sox are all supposedly in on Reed, and Newsday’s Marc Carig adds that up to half a dozen teams have already made inquiries prior to the trade deadline.

Reed, 28, is currently in his third campaign with the Mets. He’s coming off of a career-best performance in 2016, during which he looked nearly unhittable with a 1.97 ERA, 1.5 BB/9 and 10.5 SO/9 through 77 2/3 innings. His numbers have regressed a little in 2017, but he’s still working with 16 saves and a solid 2.35 ERA, 1.2 BB/9 and 9.2 SO/9 through his first 46 innings.

While there’s no doubt Reed would help stabilize any bullpen he’s dealt to, the Dodgers may have less of a prominent position to offer the right-hander. Kenley Jansen has already locked down the closing role in Los Angeles, which would likely see Reed in some kind of set-up role as he finishes his last season before hitting free agency.

Video: Jaime Garcia hits a 399-foot grand slam

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Jaime Garcia has been at the center of trade talks for several days now, but on Friday night, he commanded center stage for an entirely different reason. The Braves’ southpaw went head-to-head with Dodgers’ lefty Alex Wood and mashed his first career grand slam: a two-out, 399-foot blast that cleared the wall in right field and put the Braves up 9-0 in the fifth inning.

The bases-loaded knock was the third career home run for Garcia, whose contributions at the plate have been few and far between over his nine-year track in the major leagues. Not only did the homer mark an impressive career first for the 30-year-old, but it was just the second pitcher grand slam in Braves’ history and the first since 1966.

Garcia looked almost as impressive on the mound during Friday’s series opener, issuing one run, four hits and three strikeouts through his first six innings. The Braves currently lead the Dodgers 12-1 in the top of the seventh inning.

As for whether the slam will affect negotiations between the Braves and Twins? MLB.com’s Mike Petriello put it best: