rotoworld

About my projections

6 Comments

Since there have been plenty of questions following some recent entries here, let me tell you a bit about my Rotoworld projections:

– They’re done by hand. I look at past numbers and apply my own judgment.

– This is my 12th year doing a full set of projections. This year’s included about 760 hitters and 790 pitchers.

– I don’t claim to be the best at projecting performance. As far as I can tell, there is no system that routinely outperforms the pack.

– Where I thrive is in projecting playing time and situation-dependent stats, like runs, RBI and saves. Thus I do claim to sport some of the very best fantasy projections around, and there’s evidence backing that up.

So, yeah, take the OPS projections with a grain of salt. I’m just providing them for fun. Since we’re selling the draft guide on Rotoworld (and it brings in a very significant portion of our revenue from the year), I’m limited in what I can carry over here.

And if you don’t like the OPS projections for your favorite players, don’t worry too much about it. My median miss last year was 51 points. I was 304 points off on Adam Dunn. The one player I nailed exactly was Adam Jones at .785. Of the 208 players projected to receive at least 300 at-bats and finished with at least that many, I was within 30 points of OPS on 74 of them (36 percent) and at least 90 points off on 57 of them (27 percent).

Tim Tebow’s workout seems like fun

Screen Shot 2016-08-30 at 2.21.44 PM
2 Comments

Tim Tebow is, as we speak, working out for some 40 scouts from 20 organizations and an untold number of members of the media. So far he has run and jumped and thrown and, in a moment or two, will take his hacks. First BP swings, then live, full-speed BP off of a couple of former major leaguers.

His 60 yard dash time was supposedly excellent. On the 80-20 scouting scale he’s supposedly in the 50-60 range, according to people tweeting about it who know what they’re talking about. The guy is certainly big and strong and in amazing shape and that’s not nothing.

Also this:

Screen Shot 2016-08-30 at 2.21.44 PM

That’s from MLB’s Twitter, which provides us with some more in-action shots.

 

Here he is playing right field out there in the distance someplace:

Good luck, kid.

Adrian Beltre puts his helmet on backwards to face a switch pitcher

Screen Shot 2016-08-30 at 12.27.56 PM
4 Comments

“A” switch pitcher is probably not the most accurate way to put that. It’s more like “The” switch pitcher, as Pat Venditte of the Mariners is the only one extant.

Last night the right-handed hitting Adrian Beltre had to face Venditte, who obviously chose to pitch righty to the Rangers third baseman. Before coming up to the plate, Beltre jokingly donned his helmet backwards and pretended that he’d hit left-handed:

 

He needn’t have bothered. Beltre doubled to left field off of Venditte, showing that at some point, platoon splits really don’t matter.