Rockies add an underrated arm in Jeremy Guthrie

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There’s nothing sexy about a 47-65 career record. Jeremy Guthrie has led the AL in losses twice and in homers allowed once. He’s never won even a dozen games or struck out more than 130 batters in a season. Still, the Rockies should be very happy to have him, especially for the modest price of Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom.

From 2009-11, nine full-time starting pitchers have left the AL East for greener pastures. All nine of them improved their ERAs immediately, and eight of the nine finished the next year with a superior ERA+, which adjusts for league and ballpark.

Here’s the list:

2008 Edwin Jackson (TB) – 4.42 ERA, 100 ERA+
2009 Edwin Jackson (Det) – 3.62 ERA, 126 ERA+

2008 Garrett Olson (Bal) – 6.60 ERA, 67 ERA+
2009 Garrett Olson (Sea) – 5.60 ERA, 77 ERA+ (11 starts, 20 relief appearances)

2009 Roy Halladay (Tor) – 2.79 ERA, 159 ERA+
2010 Roy Halladay (Phi) – 2.44 ERA, 167 ERA+

2009 Scott Kazmir (TB) – 5.92 ERA, 73 ERA+ (20 starts)
2009-10 Kazmir (LAA) – 5.12 ERA, 80 ERA+ (34 starts)

2009 Brad Penny (BOS) – 5.61 ERA, 84 ERA+ (24 starts)
2009-10 Penny (SF, STL) – 2.96 ERA, 141 ERA+ (15 starts)

2010 Matt Garza (TB) – 3.91 ERA, 100 ERA+
2011 Matt Garza (CHC) – 3.32 ERA, 118 ERA+

2010 Javier Vazquez (NYY) – 5.32 ERA, 81 ERA+
2011 Javier Vazquez (FL) – 3.69 ERA, 106 ERA+

2010 Shaun Marcum (Tor) – 3.64 ERA, 115 ERA+
2011 Shaun Marcum (Mil) – 3.54 ERA, 110 ERA+

2010 Kevin Millwood (Bal) – 5.10 ERA, 82 ERA+
2011 Kevin Millwood (Col) – 3.98 ERA, 113 ERA+ (9 starts)

Now, granted, there are some huge sample-size issues here. It might be worth throwing out Olson and Millwood entirely, given that Olson lost his spot in Seattle’s rotation and Millwood got only nine starts for the Rockies. But I didn’t try to further my point by including John Smoltz or Ian Kennedy, since they had received only limited action with Boston and New York, respectively.

Anyway, pitching in the AL East is simply a different beast, in my opinion. That’s especially the case for Orioles hurlers. Not only do they often have to face four offenses that have tended to range between good and great, but they have to do it half of the time in one of the league’s toughest home run parks.

Guthrie, for what it’s worth, had a 4.33 ERA and a 95 ERA+ last year. In 2010, he finished with a 3.83 ERA and a 119 ERA+. As a modest flyball pitcher going to Coors Field, his numbers probably aren’t in for much of a boost. In fact, in adjusting his Rotoworld projection today, I merely dropped his ERA from 4.38 right back to 4.33.

Still, that makes him a substantial upgrade in Colorado. The Rockies got a 4.73 ERA from their starters last year, and the group averaged only 5.8 innings per start. Guthrie has averaged 6.3 innings per start in his career, and he’s been doing it against the Red Sox and Yankees, not the Padres and Giants.

Dallas Keuchel is unlikely to return before the All-Star break

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Astros’ left-hander Dallas Keuchel might not return to the rotation before the All-Star break, Houston manager A.J. Hinch told reporters prior to Sunday’s game. The club placed their star southpaw on the 10-day disabled list on June 8, retroactive to June 5, after a nerve issue was revealed in his neck.

Keuchel has taken a conservative approach to his recovery over the last several weeks, and while he appears to have made some progress, still has yet to throw off the mound. The injury interrupted the start of an outstanding run with the Astros, during which the 29-year-old lefty furnished a 9-0 record with a 1.67 ERA, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.2 SO/9 through his first 75 2/3 innings of 2017.

According to Hinch, it’s certainly possible that Keuchel could return to the team sometime within the next two weeks, but it’s clear that the team would prefer to play it extra safe with their ace. Even assuming that he feels ready to reclaim his spot on the Astros’ pitching staff, he still needs to complete a few key activities before competing in another game — like throwing off a mound, for example. In the meantime, Lance McCullers Jr. will continue to head Houston’s rotation as they try to build on their 12.5-game lead in the AL West.

 

Hinch’s full comments are below:

The Mets are promoting Tim Tebow to Single-A St. Lucie

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Mets GM Sandy Alderson told the media on Sunday that the organization is promoting outfielder Tim Tebow from Single-A Columbia to advanced Single-A St. Lucie, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports.

Tebow, 29, wasn’t hitting particularly well to merit the promotion. Across 241 plate appearances with Columbia, he hit .222/.311/.340 with three home runs and 22 RBI. He had just seven extra-base hits (all doubles) in his most recent 20 games. Alderson, however, defended the decision by citing Tebow’s exit velocity and other metrics.

I think we can all agree that the real reason is that promoting Tebow creates another opportunity for the Mets to sell merchandise with his name on it.

One has to feel for the outfielder Tebow will displace. St. Lucie’s regular outfielders have comparable stats to Tebow’s, so they aren’t exactly being replaced on merit. That outfielder will see less playing time, hurting his future prospects. Adding Tebow to St. Lucie’s roster will push someone off of the roster, which will also harm that player’s future prospects. And, remember, these players don’t make much money to begin with.