Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli

The case of the Texas Rangers and the incredibly shrinking strikeout rates

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One of things that really stood out when I was doing projections over the last month was how the 2011 Rangers had a bunch of guys that didn’t strike out anywhere near as much as usual. In fact, seven of their nine veterans with at least 400 plate appearances last season set new career-lows when it came to their strikeout rates.

Here’s this list, comparing their 2010 strikeout rates (K/PA) to their 2011 marks. I’m also adding their previous career lows.

Ian Kinsler: 12.4% to 9.8% (previous career low: 11.5%)
Adrian Beltre: 12.8% to 10.1% (previous career low: 12.8%)
Elvis Andrus: 14.2% to 11.1% (previous career low: 14.2%)
Michael Young: 16.0% to 11.3% (previous career low: 12.0%)
David Murphy: 15.1% to 13.9% (previous career low: 15.1%)
Yorvit Torrealba: 18.5% to 15.5% (previous career low: 16.5%)*
Mike Napoli: 26.9% to 19.7% (previous career low: 23.8%)

Josh Hamilton: 16.6% to 17.3%
Nelson Cruz: 18.2% to 22.6%

Torrealba came in at 12.9% in 136 at-bats as a rookie in 2002. 16.5% was his low mark in any of his six previous seasons with at least 200 at-bats.

I didn’t include sophomore Mitch Moreland in the above list. His strikeout rate went from 20.8% in 2010 to 18.0% last season, but given that he had just 145 major league at-bats entering the year, I didn’t think that was a big enough sample. Besides, I hardly needed him to help make my point. Seven career lows. Five of the team’s seven most important hitters (tossing out Murphy and Torrealba) lowered their strikeout rates by at least 20 percent.

That’s just incredible, in my opinion. Andrus is the only one of the seven players who is still on the upswing of his career. The others should be holding steady at best.

As for the two who declined, Hamilton still beat his career average. Cruz’s mark was slightly worse than his career average.

The data is so stark that I couldn’t help but wonder if maybe the Rangers were getting some help. Maybe they could have been stealing signs at home? The team as a whole had a K rate of 14.0% at home and 15.7% on the road. That’s a significantly larger gap than the league home-away splits (17.7% at home, 18.3% on the road), but not a big enough difference to suggest that something fishy was going on, not when they were still so much better than average on the road.

It will be interesting to see if the Rangers can keep it going this year. Napoli, Young, Beltre and Kinsler all have to be viewed as candidates to decline after exceeding expectations in 2011. I think Kinsler may avoid that fate and the Texas offense could make up for some of that production with better health (Beltre, Napoli, Hamilton and Cruz all played in fewer than 125 games last year), but barring a Prince Fielder signing, it’s going to be difficult to score quite so many runs again.

Report: Indians acquire catcher Jonathan Lucroy from the Brewers

MILWAUKEE, WI - MAY 31:  Jonathan Lucroy #20 of the Milwaukee Brewers rounds the bases after hitting a home run in the second inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Miller Park on May 31, 2016 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
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The Indians have acquired catcher Jonathan Lucroy from the Brewers, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. Lucroy still has to waive his limited no-trade clause, and the two teams are reviewing medicals before the deal is finalized.

The Brewers are reportedly receiving four players in the deal, three of which are currently known: catcher Francisco Mejia, shortstop Yu-Cheng Chang, and outfielder Greg Allen. The fourth as yet unknown player is a “lesser prospect,” per Rosenthal.

Lucroy, 30, leaves the Brewers having hit .300/.360/.484 with 13 home runs and 50 RBI in 375 plate appearances. He earned his second All-Star nomination, representing the National League at Petco Park nearly three weeks ago. Lucroy represents a huge upgrade behind the dish for the Indians, who have gotten a major league-worst .501 OPS from their catchers this season. Lucroy is owed the remainder of his $4 million salary for this season and the Indians will have a $5.25 million club option for 2017 with a $250,000 buyout.

Mejia, 20, was regarded as the Indians’ sixth-best prospect by MLB Pipeline. He spent most of the season with Single-A Lake County, batting .347/.384/.531 in 259 plate appearances. That led to a promotion to High-A Lynchburg near the end of June. Mejia, a switch-hitter, is currently on an impressive 42-game hitting streak in the minors.

Chang, 20, hit .273/.347/.493 with 12 home runs and 69 RBI in 419 PA with Lynchburg. He has experience playing third base as well as shortstop, but because he doesn’t have a strong arm, he projects better at shortstop going forward. MLB Pipeline rated him as the Indians’ 12th-best prospect.

Allen, 23, was considered the Indians’ 22nd-best prospect by MLB Pipeline. A switch-hitter, he batted .298/.424/.402 with 24 extra-base hits, 31 RBI, 93 runs scored, and 38 stolen bases in 432 PA for Lynchburg before being promoted to Double-A Akron last week.

Report: Padres trade Matt Kemp to the Braves for Hector Olivera

SAN DIEGO, CA - JUNE 06:  Matt Kemp #27 of the San Diego Padres talks in the dugout prior to the start of the game against the Atlanta Braves at PETCO Park on June 6, 2016 in San Diego, California.  (Photo by Kent Horner/Getty Images)
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Update (7:01 PM EDT): David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports the deal has been completed.

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ESPN’s Keith Law reported on Saturday evening that a bad contract swap involving the Braves’ Hector Olivera and the Padres’ Matt Kemp was “getting close.” Olivera has been pulled off the field, per Bob Nightengale of USA TODAY. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that only a last-second medical would kill the deal at this point, and that the Padres will be sending money to the Braves.

Kemp, 31, will have $64.5 million remaining on his contract through 2019 after this season, but the Dodgers will pay $3.5 million annually over those remaining three years, so the $64.5 million is really $54 million. The veteran has compiled a .262/.285/.489 triple-slash line with 23 home runs and 69 RBI in 431 plate appearances for the Padres this season.

Olivera, 31, will have $28.5 million remaining on his contract through 2020 after this season. The outfielder was handed an 82-game suspension, beginning on May 26, for his involvement in a domestic dispute on April 13. The suspension is up on August 2. He has a .501 OPS in 21 major league at-bats this season and a .278 OPS in 37 PA at Triple-A.

Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Padres will consider designating Olivera for assignment. The trade is all about the salary dump for the Padres, as they’d rather give outfield playing time to prospects Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot.