Hall of Fame projection: Larkin makes it, no one else


Every year Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times projects the results of the Hall of Fame vote. Not just who goes in, but the exact percentage of the vote each candidate gets. He’s pretty good at it:  In the past four years he has made predictions for 63 candidates. Fifty of those candidates have come within five percentage points of the actual vote, and 22 have come within one percentage point of the BBWAA result.  Last year his margin for error was 2.4 percent.

His column for this year is up, and it breaks down thusly:

Barry Larkin: 82%
Jack Morris: 65%
Jeff Bagwell: 54%
Lee Smith: 52%
Tim Raines: 52%
Edgar Martinez: 39%
Alan Trammell: 32%

No one else is over 30 percent. He has Bernie Williams at 12 percent, which would keep him on the ballot. He’s be the only new candidate this year to stick around for next.  All of the usual holdovers like Dale Murphy, Mark McGwire and friends are north of that.

There is considerable precedent for guys who get over 50% of the vote to eventually make it in, so if Jaffe is right, it bodes well for Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines.  Jack Morris’ surge to from 54 percent to 65 percent would be notable, but one wonders if the extremely crowded ballot next year would allow for him to make it over the top.

Anyway, check out Jaffe’s column, which explains how he gets where he gets with these predictions and explains the curious dynamics of a Hall of Fame candidate’s journey from ballot newbie to Hall of Famer.

Royals sign Justin Grimm to a one-year, $1.25 million deal

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The Royals signed free agent reliever Justin Grimm to a one-year, $12.5 million deal, the club announced Sunday. Grimm can earn up to $300,000 in additional incentives, the specifics of which have yet to be disclosed.

The 29-year-old right-hander was released by the Cubs on Thursday. Prior to his release, he was slated to make $2.2 million after losing his arbitration case against the team. Grimm polished off a five-year campaign with the Cubs in 2017 and produced an unimpressive 5.53 ERA, 4.4 BB/9 and 9.6 SO/9 over 55 1/3 innings.

In a corresponding move, right-hander Sam Gaviglio was designated for assignment. He pitched in five games for the Royals this spring, racking up 13 hits, eight runs and seven strikeouts in seven innings.