Hall of Fame projection: Larkin makes it, no one else

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Every year Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times projects the results of the Hall of Fame vote. Not just who goes in, but the exact percentage of the vote each candidate gets. He’s pretty good at it:  In the past four years he has made predictions for 63 candidates. Fifty of those candidates have come within five percentage points of the actual vote, and 22 have come within one percentage point of the BBWAA result.  Last year his margin for error was 2.4 percent.

His column for this year is up, and it breaks down thusly:

Barry Larkin: 82%
Jack Morris: 65%
Jeff Bagwell: 54%
Lee Smith: 52%
Tim Raines: 52%
Edgar Martinez: 39%
Alan Trammell: 32%

No one else is over 30 percent. He has Bernie Williams at 12 percent, which would keep him on the ballot. He’s be the only new candidate this year to stick around for next.  All of the usual holdovers like Dale Murphy, Mark McGwire and friends are north of that.

There is considerable precedent for guys who get over 50% of the vote to eventually make it in, so if Jaffe is right, it bodes well for Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines.  Jack Morris’ surge to from 54 percent to 65 percent would be notable, but one wonders if the extremely crowded ballot next year would allow for him to make it over the top.

Anyway, check out Jaffe’s column, which explains how he gets where he gets with these predictions and explains the curious dynamics of a Hall of Fame candidate’s journey from ballot newbie to Hall of Famer.

Yasmany Tomas arrested for reckless driving and criminal speeding

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KTAR News is reporting that Diamondbacks outfielder Yasmany Tomas was arrested on Thursday morning for driving faster than 100 MPH, according to the Arizona Department of Public Safety. He was charged with reckless driving and criminal speeding.

The maximum sentence for a criminal speeding charge is up to 30 days in jail and a fine up to $500. It is considered a Class 3 misdemeanor. Tomas may also have his license suspended.

A Diamondbacks spokesperson said, “We are very disappointed to learn of this news. We are still gathering facts, and will refrain from further comment at this time as this is a pending legal matter.”

Tomas, 27, signed a six-year, $68.5 million contract with the Diamondbacks in December 2014 as an amateur free agent out of Cuba. He has mostly disappointed, owning a .769 OPS while playing subpar defense in the outfield as well as at third base, where the club briefly tried him. He battled a groin injury for most of the past season and ultimately underwent core muscle surgery in August.