CSNPhilly.com’s Casey Feeney makes the case.
I’ll admit that I wrote it off in about a nano-second after reading the headline, but the more I thought about it, it’s not so far-fetched. Ryan Howard’s RBI totals have made him an annual MVP candidate despite the fact that he’s only really had one season in which he was arguably the NL’s best player. With Howard out, Pence figures to take over as the Phillies’ cleanup hitter and he could well lead the NL in RBI opportunities. It’s not unrealistic to think that he could knock in 120-130 runs next season.
Also, with Albert Pujols gone, Prince Fielder perhaps following and defending MVP Ryan Braun maybe suspended for a third of the season (and unlikely to get the benefit of doubt from voters even if his appeal is successful), there aren’t a whole lot of sure things ahead of Pence. Joey Votto is the one rock-solid pick, and his team isn’t looking all that great. Troy Tulowitzki would be right there with him, but he’s more of an injury risk. Then there are Matt Kemp, who had to be playing at least a bit over his head last year, Justin Upton and Matt Holliday. Plus, no one should dismiss the Marlins trio of Mike Stanton, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes.
If I were a betting man, I’d probably put a few bucks on Upton and Stanton first. A rehabbing Buster Posey is another sleeper. But Pence, even though he ranks 30th in OPS among the 84 players to have at least 1,200 plate appearances in the NL the last three years, should be somewhere in the 6-10 range as far as likely MVP candidates.