For 30 years a man named Bill Deane has been predicting the Hall of Fame vote. He has a nearly 80% success rate in getting the votes right, so that’s pretty good. His prediction this year: Barry Larkin is the only inductee.
Hard to argue with that. Larkin was close last year and a jump from the 62.1% he received to the 75% he needs is quite doable in an otherwise undistinguished field. None of the new guys are likely to get a ton of support and none of the non-Larkin holdovers are likely to gain nearly enough to make it.
As I noted yesterday, there are several people on the ballot who should go in. But given that won’t happen, it’ll be nice to see the very-deserving Barry Larkin make it.