Tangotiger published the results of his annual Forecaster’s Challenge on Tuesday, and my Rotoworld projections put together a pretty nice showing versus several other experts and projections systems.
There were 22 entries in the challenge, including the likes of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, Bloomberg Sports and the Fangraphs community projections. Also included was a consensus ranking using all of the systems put together. The projections were judged in four different competitions, and I finished first, second and fourth in three of those. I was somewhere in the middle of the pack in the other. It was in the head-to-head contest that I thrived; put in a two-person league with one of the 21 other systems, I won 41 out of 42 runs.
Alas, when Tango combined all of the four contests into one score, I finished second to the consensus model. As it turned out, the average of all of the expert systems was better than any of the individual systems this year.
Now back to working on those 2012 projections. Anyone with an idea on how many homers Bobby Parnell will allow should drop my a line.
(If you want to see more, I reviewed a bunch of my projections in this space last month.)
A scary thing just happened in Yankee Stadium. A young fan, it appeared to be a young girl, sitting down the left-field line was struck by a Todd Frazier foul ball. Play was halted on the field as she was attended to. They carried her out, not waiting for a stretcher to come. It was hard to see how bad her injuries were, but those on the field — including Eduardo Escobar of the Twins — were visibly shaken.
Major League Baseball has encouraged — not demanded or required, but merely encouraged — teams to extend netting farther down the foul lines in the name of fan safety. Many teams have done so. The Yankees have not, and have remained somewhat non-committal about it all.
We’ll provide an update of the girl’s condition once it is known.
Most of you are likely aware of baseball’s history of collusion. Specifically, the three instances between 1985 and 1988 when the league, the owners and their general managers entered into a conspiracy to suppress salaries by agreeing to share information and to not to sign free agents away from other teams. The scheme, which violated the explicit terms of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, led to a series of arbitrations which resulted in the owners being forced to pay the players $280 million in damages.
While you may know that large-arc story of collusion, there is an awful lot of stuff relating to it all that is seldom talked about. Interesting stuff which, despite its genesis over 30 years ago still impacts baseball to this very day. If you want to hear some talk about that, I was on the This Week in Baseball History podcast with Michael Bates and Bill Parker last night, and we talked about it, all in honor of the first decision in the three collusion cases which came down 30 years ago this week.
We covered a lot of topics you may not know arose out of the collusion cases. For example:
- Did you know that the collusion cases led more or less directly to the existence of the Marlins, Rockies, Rays and Diamondbacks?
- Did you know that it led, eventually, to Bud Selig becoming commissioner?
- Did you know that it contributed greatly to the 1994-95 labor impasse which led to the cancellation of the 1994 World Series?
- Did you know that it spun off litigation that continued for nearly 20 years after the collusion plan, so that in the year 2005 people were STILL talking about what Steve freakin’ Garvey was supposed to earn back in the 1980s?
- Did you know that, in one key respect, the collusion cases of the 1980s had their genesis in something Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale did back in 1966?
Maybe you knew some of that, maybe you didn’t, but it was all kinda wild. If the topic interests you, I highly recommend you take a listen to the podcast. We go light on the legalities, heavier on talking about stuff like what might’ve happened if Kirk Gibson signed with the Royals in 1986 and never made it to the Dodgers in 1988. It’s baseball talk that you may not hear every day.