Matt Kemp

2011 Projection Review: Outfielders

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What follows is a review of some of my 2011 projections for Rotoworld.com. I’m highlighting my preseason top five for each position and some other notables.

Catchers
First basemen
Second basemen
Third basemen
Shortstops

Outfielders

Preseason Top 10

Carlos Gonzalez – Rockies – $37 – #1
Projection: .314/.366/.561, 31 HR, 112 R, 103 RBI, 23 SB in 602 AB
2011 stats: .295/.363/.526, 26 HR, 92 R, 92 RBI, 20 SB in 481 AB

Gonzalez’s average was down 40 points from his outstanding 2010 season, but if not for the injuries, he would have been right there with the other elite fantasy outfielders. His stats prorated over 580 at-bats: 31 homers, 111 runs, 111 RBI and 24 steals.

Ryan Braun – Brewers – $35 – #2
Projection: .310/.376/.552, 33 HR, 109 R, 107 RBI, 16 SB in 616 AB
2011 stats: .332/.397/.597, 33 HR, 109 R, 111 RBI, 33 SB in 563 AB

Here’s a prediction: Braun gets 10 times as many intentional walks next year. He finished with just two while hitting ahead of Prince Fielder this season.

Carl Crawford – Red Sox – $33 – #3
Projection: .309/.360/.474, 16 HR, 108 R, 82 RBI, 38 SB in 593 AB
2011 stats: .255/.289/.405, 11 HR, 65 R, 56 RBI, 18 SB in 506 AB

Crawford spent the entire season standing too away from the plate and then flailing away at pitches just off the outside corner. He had a 104/23 K/BB ratio in 506 at-bats for Boston. That’s exactly as many strikeouts and exactly half as many walks as he had in 600 at-bats the year before.

Matt Kemp – Dodgers – $32 – #4
Projection: .290/.349/.512, 31 HR, 96 R, 99 RBI, 27 SB in 607 AB
2011 stats: .324/.399/.586, 39 HR, 115 R, 126 RBI, 40 SB in 602 AB

From .249 to .324. Also huge from a fantasy standpoint, Kemp went from 19-for-34 stealing bases to 40-for-51. Kemp had 602 official at-bats in both 2010 and 2011, but he had 45 more hits and 21 additional walks this year.

Matt Holliday – Cardinals – $30 – #5
Projection: .311/.402/.529, 27 HR, 96 R, 116 RBI, 10 SB in 573 AB
2011 stats: .296/.388/.525, 22 HR, 83 R, 75 RBI, 2 SB in 446 AB

The disappointing OBPs at the top of the Cardinals’ lineup took a toll on Holliday’s RBI numbers. Not only did Cards leadoff hitters get on base at a poor .310 clip, but Albert Pujols came in at .366 instead of his usual .430 or so (and even that is a bit misleading, since home runs made up a bigger part of his OBP than ever before).

Jacoby Ellsbury – Red Sox – $28 – #6
Projection: .294/.351/.418, 11 HR, 96 R, 56 RBI, 51 SB in 574 AB
2011 stats: .321/.376/.552, 32 HR, 119 R, 105 RBI, 39 SB in 660 AB

Ellsbury was even better than Crawford was bad. Despite hitting first all season (well, except for a handful of games batting ninth), he finished fourth among outfielders in RBI.

Nelson Cruz – Rangers – $28 – #7
Projection: .286/.352/.525, 31 HR, 85 R, 102 RBI, 20 SB in 545 AB
2011 stats: .263/.312/.509, 29 HR, 64 R, 87 RBI, 9 SB in 475 AB

That’s more the kind of season I projected Cruz to have in 2010, when he shocked me by batting .318. Throwing in the postseason for fun, Cruz finished with 37 homers and 103 RBI in 537 at-bats.

Shin-Soo Choo – Indians – $27 – #8
Projection: .293/.390/.490, 23 HR, 98 R, 97 RBI, 20 SB in 569 AB
2011 stats: .259/.344/.390, 8 HR, 37 R, 36 RBI, 12 SB in 313 AB

A lost year for the two-time 20 HR/20 SB outfielder. I imagine he’ll rebound next year and that could lead to the best run and RBI numbers of his career now that Cleveland’s lineup is looking stronger.

Andrew McCutchen – Pirates – $27 – #9
Projection: .293/.372/.472, 18 HR, 92 R, 76 RBI, 34 SB in 563 AB
2011 stats: .259/.364/.456, 23 HR, 87 R, 89 RBI, 23 SB in 572 AB

McCutchen fanned 30 times in 246 at-bats in the second half of 2010, 62 times in 327 at-bats in the first half of 2011 and then 64 times in 245 at-bats in the second half of 2011. I don’t believe that he’ll keep trending in that direction, but it’s worth watching. He can’t be penciled in as a perennial All-Star just yet.

Josh Hamilton – Rangers – $26 – #10
Projection: .307/.374/.557, 30 HR, 91 R, 100 RBI, 7 SB in 521 AB
2011 stats: .298/.346/.536, 25 HR, 80 R, 94 RBI, 8 SB in 487 AB

Others

Jay Bruce – Reds – $20 – #25
Projection: .271/.350/.505, 31 HR, 83 R, 92 RBI, 7 SB in 549 AB
2011 stats: .256/.341/.474, 32 HR, 84 R, 97 RBI, 8 SB in 585 AB

Throw out his huge May and Bruce hit .236 with 20 homers and 64 RBI the remaining five months of the season.

Alex Gordon – Royals – $8 – #66
Projection: .254/.346/.434, 19 HR, 66 R, 65 RBI, 11 SB in 507 AB
2011 stats: .303/.376/.502, 23 HR, 101 R, 87 RBI, 17 SB in 611 AB

I missed pretty big on all three Kansas City outfielders. I hadn’t written off Gordon, but given the Royals’ past handling of him, I kept the projection pretty modest. That said, if I had projected a breakout, it would have been something more like .270-25-90. The .300 average was a big surprise.

Curtis Granderson – Yankees – $23 – #17
Projection: .265/.343/.485, 29 HR, 97 R, 80 RBI, 19 SB in 559 AB
2011 stats: .262/.364/.552, 41 HR, 136 R, 119 RBI, 25 SB in 583 AB

I’m not sure I’ve ever had a projection quite like this, where I’m close on average and at-bats and yet so far away on runs scored and RBI. Of course, the extra 12 homers had something to do with that. Still, even so, 136 runs and 119 RBI were just remarkable totals. Granderson led the majors in runs scored by 15 and the AL in RBI.

Jason Heyward – Braves – $23 – #14
Projection: .287/.395/.519, 27 HR, 87 R, 91 RBI, 14 SB in 540 AB
2011 stats: .227/.319/.389, 14 HR, 50 R, 42 RBI, 9 SB in 396 AB

I’m still a believer, though next year’s projection is going to be a tough call. I’ll probably drop the average to .270 or so but call for 25 homers.

Adam Jones – Orioles – $16 – #39
Projection: .279/.330/.455, 22 HR, 77 R, 80 RBI, 11 SB in 573 AB
2011 stats: .280/.319/.466, 25 HR, 68 R, 83 RBI, 12 SB in 567 AB

Mike Morse – Nationals – $8 – #62
Projection: .273/.332/.441, 19 HR, 66 R, 75 RBI, 2 SB in 531 AB
2011 stats: .303/.360/.550, 31 HR, 73 R, 95 RBI, 2 SB in 522 AB

Hunter Pence – Astros/Phillies – $24 – #12
Projection: .292/.350/.503, 28 HR, 90 R, 87 RBI, 14 SB in 596 AB
2011 stats: .314/.370/.502, 22 HR, 84 R, 97 RBI, 8 SB in 606 AB

Alex Rios – White Sox – $23 – #15
Projection: .282/.335/.462, 22 HR, 78 R, 83 RBI, 26 SB in 571 AB
2011 stats: .227/.265/.348, 13 HR, 64 R, 44 RBI, 11 SB in 537 AB

Mike Stanton – Marlins – $19 – #30
Projection: .251/.326/.516, 37 HR, 85 R, 98 RBI, 5 SB in 570 AB
2011 stats: .262/.356/.537, 34 HR, 79 R, 87 RBI, 5 SB in 516 AB

Stanton didn’t lead the NL in homers in his first full season as I thought he might, but he wasn’t all that far away. He’ll rate as the favorite for 2012 unless Pujols lands in Wrigley Field.

Ichiro Suzuki – Mariners – $24 – #13
Projection: .316/.362/.406, 8 HR, 94 R, 45 RBI, 36 SB in 658 AB
2011 stats: .272/.310/.335, 5 HR, 80 R, 47 RBI, 40 SB in 677 AB

If he maintained that .272 average, it would have taken Ichiro 736 at-bats to get to 200 hits for the 11th season in a row.

B.J. Upton – Rays – $23 – #16
Projection: .266/.349/.459, 21 HR, 79 R, 74 RBI, 36 SB in 538 AB
2011 stats: .243/.331/.429, 23 HR, 82 R, 81 RBI, 36 SB in 560 AB

Upton had a very good year for a guy with a .243 average, but this makes three straight seasons with an average right in that range. I’d still like to think he can take a step forward, but maybe it’s time for me to stop projecting him to hit .270.

Justin Upton – Diamondbacks – $25 – #11
Projection: .281/.362/.524, 29 HR, 84 R, 91 RBI, 20 SB in 540 AB
2011 stats: .289/.369/.529, 31 HR, 105 R, 88 RBI, 21 SB in 592 AB

If not Stanton, then Upton is a realistic candidate to lead the NL in homers. He hit 16 n 244 at-bats after the All-Star break this year, and it was just his age-23 season.

Vernon Wells – Angels – $15 – #40
Projection: .270/.324/.464, 23 HR, 75 R, 90 RBI, 10 SB in 563 AB
2011 stats: .218/.248/.412, 25 HR, 60 R, 66 RBI, 9 SB in 505 AB

I projected Wells’ OPS to fall from .847 to .788. It hardly seemed overly optimistic at the time.

Jayson Werth – Nationals – $21 – #24
Projection: .265/.356/.471, 25 HR, 95 R, 84 RBI, 17 SB in 552 AB
2011 stats: .232/.330/.389, 20 HR, 69 R, 58 RBI, 19 SB in 561 AB

I projected Werth’s OPS to fall from .921 to .827. It hardly seemed overly optimistic at the time.

Video: Bryce Harper launches a homer into the upper deck

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 24: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals looks on against the New York Mets at Nationals Park on May 24, 2016 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
Patrick Smith/Getty Images
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Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper has had a tough month of May. Opposing pitchers have become increasingly unwilling to throw hittable pitches in the strike zone for him, and he’s had trouble adjusting. Entering Thursday’s action, Harper was hitting .194/.454/.306 with two home runs in 97 plate appearances this month. 31 of those plate appearances ended in a walk, nine intentionally.

Harper finally got a pitch to hit in the sixth inning against Cardinals starter Mike Leake. Leake threw a 1-1 curve and Harper promptly launched into the upper deck at Nationals Park. It’s Harper’s 12th homer of the year.

Jackie Bradley, Jr.’s hitting streak ends at 29 games

BOSTON, MA - MAY 25:  Blake Swihart #23 of the Boston Red Sox congratulates Jackie Bradley Jr. #25 after he scored a run against the Colorado Rockies  during the fifth inning at Fenway Park on May 25, 2016 in Boston, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
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Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley, Jr. was unable to continue his hitting streak on Thursday night, going 0-for-4 out of the leadoff spot against the Rockies in an 8-2 loss. He hit a deep fly ball to right field in the first inning, missing a home run by a few feet. He hit another deep drive in the fifth, but it was caught in front of the wall in center field at Fenway Park by Charlie Blackmon. In his final at-bat, Bradley weakly grounded out on the first pitch from Jon Gray to lead off the eighth inning.

Bradley’s 29-game streak tied Johnny Damon for the fourth-longest streak in Red Sox history. Dom DiMaggio still has the longest in club history at 34 games.

Shortstop Xander Bogaerts was able to extend his hitting streak streak to 19 games. He went 1-for-3, hitting a line drive single in the first.

Softball legend Jennie Finch to manage a professional men’s baseball team

NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 03:  Jennie Finch attends a press conference at Marathon Pavilion in Central Park on November 3, 2011 in New York City.  (Photo by Andy Kropa/Getty Images)
Andy Kropa/Getty Images
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Softball legend Jennie Finch will make history on Sunday when she will serve as a guest manager for the Bridgeport Bluefish of the independent Atlantic League. She will become the first woman to manage a men’s professional baseball team.

In the club’s announcement, GM Jamie Toole said, “We are really excited to have Jennie come out and manage the team. She is an incredible athlete and a wonderful person, and we hope our fans will enjoy seeing her in a Bluefish uniform for the day.”

Finch won the 2001 Women’s College World Series with the University of Arizona. She won the gold medal with Team USA in the 2004 Summer Olympics and silver in the 2008 Summer Olympics.

Finch is only managing one game, but it’s still a positive step for inclusiveness in professional sports. Hopefully, in the future, we see more women in sportswriting, broadcasting, coaching, and front office positions.

Mike Moustakas out for the rest of the 2016 season with a torn ACL

KANSAS CITY, MO - APRIL 21:  Mike Moustakas #8 of the Kansas City Royals hits a single in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Kauffman Stadium on April 21, 2016 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
Ed Zurga/Getty Images
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Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas has been placed on disabled list with a torn right ACL, the club announced on Thursday. He is expected to miss the rest of the season, per MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan. Outfielder Brett Eibner has been recalled from Triple-A Omaha.

Moustakas suffered the injury colliding with teammate Alex Gordon attempting to catch a foul ball. Gordon suffered a fractured scaphoid bone, which will keep him out of action for three to four weeks.

It’s a tough break for Moustakas as he missed time earlier this month with a fractured thumb. He lands back on the DL hitting .240/.301/.500 with seven home runs and 13 RBI in 113 plate appearances.