Jose Reyes

2011 Projection Review: Shortstops

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What follows is a review of some of my 2011 projections for Rotoworld.com. I’m highlighting my preseason top five for each position and some other notables.

Catchers
First basemen
Second basemen
Third basemen

Shortstops

Preseason Top 5

Hanley Ramirez – Marlins – $39 – #1
Projection: .317/.398/.533, 27 HR, 104 R, 93 RBI, 30 SB in 559 AB
2011 stats: .243/.333/.379, 10 HR, 55 R, 45 RBI, 20 SB in 338 AB

Count on Ozzie Guillen giving Ramirez a swift kick in the rear. Whether that will get him back to his 2009 level of performance is uncertain, but I’d be surprised if he isn’t an All-Star next year.

Troy Tulowitzki – Rockies – $32 – #2
Projection: .298/.377/.548, 31 HR, 101 R, 104 RBI, 11 SB in 551 AB
2011 stats: .302/.372/.544, 30 HR, 81 R, 105 RBI, 9 SB in 537 AB

Tulo did almost exactly what was expected of him. The guys behind him in the order, on the other hand…

Jose Reyes – Mets – $27 – #3
Projection: .290/.353/.452, 14 HR, 93 R, 60 RBI, 37 SB in 580 AB
2011 stats: .337/.384/.493, 7 HR, 101 R, 44 RBI, 39 SB in 537 AB

This was the best version of Reyes we’ve seen to date: fewer homers, fewer walks and fewer steals, but also fewer strikeouts and a whole bunch more singles. He should be through as a 60-steal guy, as health does need to be a priority.

Elvis Andrus – Rangers – $24 – #4
Projection: .280/.347/.370, 5 HR, 97 R, 49 RBI, 41 SB in 610 AB
2011 stats: .279/.347/.361, 5 HR, 96 R, 60 RBI, 37 SB in 587 AB

Andrus showed a bit of pop this year after finishing with no homers and a .301 slugging percentage as a sophomore. I don’t suspect that he’ll break through and reach double figures in homers next year, but he should get there someday.

Jimmy Rollins – Phillies – $23 – #5
Projection: .266/.328/.423, 16 HR, 92 R, 65 RBI, 32 SB in 617 AB
2011 stats: .268/.338/.399, 16 HR, 87 R, 63 RBI, 30 SB in 567 AB

Rollins gets to take his best season since 2008 with him as he heads into free agency. It might get him a four-year deal this winter, though three years would be safer.

Others

Erick Aybar – Angels – $13 – #13
Projection: .276/.327/.390, 8 HR, 69 R, 56 RBI, 21 SB in 536 AB
2011 stats: .279/.322/.421, 10 HR, 71 R, 59 RBI, 30 SB in 556 AB

Asdrubal Cabrera – Indians – $15 – #10
Projection: .293/.354/.415, 9 HR, 83 R, 63 RBI, 11 SB in 557 AB
2011 stats: .273/.332/.460, 25 HR, 87 R, 92 RBI, 17 SB in 604 AB

I didn’t see Cabrera becoming this kind of power hitter at any point in his career.

Starlin Castro – Cubs – $19 – #8
Projection: .296/.345/.420, 8 HR, 90 R, 60 RBI, 19 SB in 612 AB
2011 stats: .307/.341/.432, 10 HR, 91 R, 66 RBI, 22 SB in 674 AB

Castro hit eight homers after the All-Star break, as compared to just two before. I suspect that some will cite that fact and project him as a 15- or 20-homer guy next year. Still, I think that homer outburst was something of a fluke. He had just 13 non-HR extra-base hits in the second half, compared to 32 in the first half.

Yunel Escobar – Blue Jays – $12 – #14
Projection: .290/.362/.413, 12 HR, 77 R, 63 RBI, 5 SB in 542 AB
2011 stats: .290/.369/.413, 11 HR, 77 R, 48 RBI, 3 SB in 513 AB

One of my best projections, and Escobar hit .256/.337/.318 in 2010, so this was no easy call.

Rafael Furcal – Dodgers/Cardinals – $16 – #9
Projection: .276/.345/.399, 10 HR, 87 R, 48 RBI, 24 SB in 537 AB
2011 stats: .231/.298/.348, 8 HR, 44 R, 28 RBI, 9 SB in 333 AB

J.J. Hardy – Orioles – $8 – #21
Projection: .264/.325/.429, 19 HR, 64 R, 66 RBI, 1 SB in 518 AB
2011 stats: .269/.310/.491, 30 HR, 76 R, 80 RBI, 0 SB in 527 AB

Derek Jeter – Yankees – $21 – #6
Projection: .286/.358/.401, 13 HR, 101 R, 64 RBI, 16 SB in 601 AB
2011 stats: .297/.355/.388, 6 HR, 84 R, 61 RBI, 16 SB in 546 AB

Jeter had reached double figures in homers in 15 straight seasons before coming up well short at age 37. He also finished with a career-low 24 doubles, which should probably be taken as an indication that his homer total isn’t likely to bounce back much or at all.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka – Twins – $10 – #15
Projection: .265/.334/.376, 7 HR, 78 R, 59 RBI, 18 SB in 548 AB
2011 stats: .226/.278/.249, 0 HR, 14 R, 19 RBI, 2 SB in 221 AB

I’ve typically done pretty well with Japanese hitters arriving in the big leagues, but Nishioka proved to be terribly overmatched. There’s still the chance that he’ll hit for a decent average as a sophomore, but he’s not going to generate any power with his current swing.

Alexei Ramirez – White Sox – $20 – #7
Projection: .280/.324/.449, 20 HR, 75 R, 77 RBI, 16 SB in 564 AB
2011 stats: .269/.328/.399, 15 HR, 81 R, 70 RBI, 7 SB in 614 AB

Orioles re-sign Michael Bourn to a minor league deal

TORONTO, ON - OCTOBER 04:  Michael Bourn #1 of the Baltimore Orioles hits a single in the fifth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during the American League Wild Card game at Rogers Centre on October 4, 2016 in Toronto, Canada.  (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
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The Orioles have re-signed outfielder Michael Bourn to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league camp, MASN’s Roch Kubatko reports.

Bourn, 34, joined the Orioles last year in a trade from the Diamondbacks on August 31. Though he compiled a meager .669 OPS with the Diamondbacks, Bourn hit a solid .283/.358/.435 in 55 plate appearances with the O’s through the end of the season.

Bourn, a non-roster invitee to camp, will try to play his way onto the Orioles’ 25-man roster. If he does make the roster, Bourn will receive a $2 million salary, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports points out.

Shelby Miller is in the best mental shape of his life

PITTSBURGH, PA - MAY 24:  Shelby Miller #26 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches in the first inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on May 24, 2016 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
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Diamondbacks starter Shelby Miller had about as bad a season as one can have. He was the headliner in the trade that sent 2015 No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson, All-Star outfielder Ender Inciarte, and highly-regarded pitching prospect Aaron Blair to the Braves. It was a trade that was pilloried at the time and continues to be pilloried to this day.

Miller didn’t do then-GM Dave Stewart any favors with his 2016 performance. He went 3-12 with a 6.15 ERA and a 70/42 K/BB ratio over 101 innings. That included a bout with mechanical failure, as he kept hitting the mound with his follow-through. He went on the disabled list. And after that, he was demoted to Triple-A. After getting fired, Stewart expressed remorse over acquiring Miller — or, more accurately, giving up Swanson to do so.

So, the 26-year-old Miller heads into 2017 without any momentum. To his credit, though, he’s going into the new season with a very positive perspective. Via Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports:

I’m just in a really happy place, away from the field, on the field. […]

Maybe it’s just the way I go about everything, trying to be positive in every single aspect of life. Baseball’s not perfect. I’m not perfect. I know bumps in the road are going to happen. Last year was obviously not just a bump, but a huge mountain. Right now, that’s completely behind me. I’m not worried about any of that.

I’m really ready for this year, ready to redeem myself so much.

Even pitching coach Mike Butcher sees the change in Miller’s mentality. “He’s not a different guy. But you can see there’s a presence in him. That’s what we need. Just be Shelby Miller. You don’t have to live up to anything. Just be yourself.”

Manager Torey Lovullo, too, praised Miller. “I saw a guy who had spent a lot of time taking care of his business in the weight room — he looks fantastic, in fantastic shape,” he said.

It sounds like Miller is not only in great mental shape, but great physical shape, too. Is it the “best shape of his life”? Only time can tell.