Milwaukee Brewers v St. Louis Cardinals

NLCS Preview: Cardinals vs. Brewers

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You can’t predict baseball, but you can at least lay out the parameters. So let’s take a look at what the Cardinals and Brewers have in store for us during the National League Championship Series.

The Teams

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Probable Matchups

Game 1 Sunday in Milwaukee: Jaime Garcia vs. Zack Greinke
Game 2 Monday in Milwaukee: Edwin Jackson vs. Shaun Marcum
Game 3 Wednesday in St. Louis: Yovani Gallardo vs. Chris Carpenter
Game 4 Thursday in St. Louis: Randy Wolf vs. Kyle Lohse
Game 5 (if necessary) Friday in St. Louis: Zack Greinke vs. Jaime Garcia
Game 6 (if necessary) next Sunday in Milwaukee: Edwin Jackson vs. Shaun Marcum
Game 7 (if necessary) Monday, October 17 in Milwaukee: Chris Carpenter vs. Yovani Gallardo

Analysis: Neither team will have their best pitcher going in Game 1, as Yovani Gallardo and Chris Carpenter both started deciding games on Friday. Zack Greinke is coming off a rough start against the Diamondbacks, but posted a 3.15 ERA and 18/1 K/BB ratio in 20 innings over three starts against the Cardinals during the regular season. Jaime Garcia, who allowed three runs over seven innings in a loss to the Phillies on Tuesday, is expected to oppose Greinke in the series opener. The southpaw has a 4.28 career ERA on the road, including a no-decision against the Brewers in early August where he allowed seven runs (three earned) over five innings. It’s difficult to give one team the advantage over the other, as Brewers’ starters had a 3.78 ERA during the regular season while the Cardinals had a 3.81 ERA, but I think Greinke gets them off to a pretty good start.

The Storylines

– The Brewers and the Cardinals haven’t met in the postseason since the 1982 World Series, which was also dubbed the “Suds Series” for obvious reasons. The Cardinals won in seven games while catcher Darrell Porter was named MVP.

– “That’s correct” – That was Lance Berkman’s reply when he was asked to confirm whether his team doesn’t like the Brewers. The Cardinals and Brewers split the season series 9-9, which included a beanball war and plenty of bickering during some intense ballgames in early August and September. Things could get chippy here.

– The Brewers have home-field advantage, which is significant, as they were a major-league best 57-24 at home during the regular season and took all three games at Miller Park against the Diamondbacks during the NLDS. Of course, the Brewers were swept by the Cardinals at home just over a month ago, so who knows?

– Will Matt Holliday be able to play through his recent hand injury? The 31-year-old outfielder has been bothered by inflammation in his right middle finger for nearly four weeks and didn’t start the first three games of the NLDS against the Phillies.

– Can the Cardinals keep the Brewers’ one-two punch of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder in check? Braun and Fielder combined to hit .389 (14-for-36) during the NLDS against the Diamondbacks while the rest of the Brewers’ lineup batted just .215. They need some of their other bats to step up, including No. 5 hitter Rickie Weeks, who went 1-for-18 (.056) against the D-Backs.

– Skip Schumaker, who went 6-for-10 with two doubles and three RBI during the NLDS against the Phillies, is expected to miss the NLCS due to an oblique injury. Tyler Greene will likely replace him on the active roster, but Tony La Russa will likely shuffle Ryan Theriot and Nick Punto in and out of the lineup at second base.

– John Axford blew his first save since April 18 on Friday against the Diamondbacks, but was at least able to get out of a major jam in the ninth inning and pitch a scoreless tenth. Not worried about him. With Francisco Rodriguez, Takashi Saito, LaTroy Hawkins and Kameron Loe also available as late-game options, the Brewers have the clear edge in the bullpen.

Prediction

These offenses matchup pretty well against each other, but the Brewers probably have the advantage in the pitching department. Throw in home-field advantage and Ron Roenicke’s crew looks too tough to beat, even for the red-hot Redbirds.

BREWERS WIN THE SERIES 4-2

Orioles re-sign Michael Bourn to a minor league deal

TORONTO, ON - OCTOBER 04:  Michael Bourn #1 of the Baltimore Orioles hits a single in the fifth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays during the American League Wild Card game at Rogers Centre on October 4, 2016 in Toronto, Canada.  (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images)
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The Orioles have re-signed outfielder Michael Bourn to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league camp, MASN’s Roch Kubatko reports.

Bourn, 34, joined the Orioles last year in a trade from the Diamondbacks on August 31. Though he compiled a meager .669 OPS with the Diamondbacks, Bourn hit a solid .283/.358/.435 in 55 plate appearances with the O’s through the end of the season.

Bourn, a non-roster invitee to camp, will try to play his way onto the Orioles’ 25-man roster. If he does make the roster, Bourn will receive a $2 million salary, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports points out.

Shelby Miller is in the best mental shape of his life

PITTSBURGH, PA - MAY 24:  Shelby Miller #26 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches in the first inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on May 24, 2016 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
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Diamondbacks starter Shelby Miller had about as bad a season as one can have. He was the headliner in the trade that sent 2015 No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson, All-Star outfielder Ender Inciarte, and highly-regarded pitching prospect Aaron Blair to the Braves. It was a trade that was pilloried at the time and continues to be pilloried to this day.

Miller didn’t do then-GM Dave Stewart any favors with his 2016 performance. He went 3-12 with a 6.15 ERA and a 70/42 K/BB ratio over 101 innings. That included a bout with mechanical failure, as he kept hitting the mound with his follow-through. He went on the disabled list. And after that, he was demoted to Triple-A. After getting fired, Stewart expressed remorse over acquiring Miller — or, more accurately, giving up Swanson to do so.

So, the 26-year-old Miller heads into 2017 without any momentum. To his credit, though, he’s going into the new season with a very positive perspective. Via Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports:

I’m just in a really happy place, away from the field, on the field. […]

Maybe it’s just the way I go about everything, trying to be positive in every single aspect of life. Baseball’s not perfect. I’m not perfect. I know bumps in the road are going to happen. Last year was obviously not just a bump, but a huge mountain. Right now, that’s completely behind me. I’m not worried about any of that.

I’m really ready for this year, ready to redeem myself so much.

Even pitching coach Mike Butcher sees the change in Miller’s mentality. “He’s not a different guy. But you can see there’s a presence in him. That’s what we need. Just be Shelby Miller. You don’t have to live up to anything. Just be yourself.”

Manager Torey Lovullo, too, praised Miller. “I saw a guy who had spent a lot of time taking care of his business in the weight room — he looks fantastic, in fantastic shape,” he said.

It sounds like Miller is not only in great mental shape, but great physical shape, too. Is it the “best shape of his life”? Only time can tell.