Leaderboards vs. the projections: the pitchers

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Here’s part two of my look at the actual leaderboards versus my projected totals. I’ll be listing players with their season totals and then where I had them ranked and projected.

Wins
1. Justin Verlander: 24 (6th, 16)
2. Ian Kennedy: 21 (67th, 11)
2. Clayton Kershaw: 21 (10th, 15)
4. Roy Halladay: 19 (1st, 19)
4. CC Sabathia: 19 (2nd, 18)
6. Jered Weaver: 18 (19th, 14)
7. Yovani Gallardo: 17 (19th, 14)
7. Cliff Lee: 17 (3rd, 17)
9. Gio Gonzalez: 16 (31st, 13)
9. Zack Greinke: 16 (31st, 13)
9. Dan Haren: 16 (19th, 14)
9. Derek Holland: 16 (67th, 11)
9. Daniel Hudson: 16 (31st, 13)
9. Tim Hudson: 16 (10th, 15)
9. Ivan Nova: 16 (87th, 10)
9. James Shields: 16 (31st, 13)
9. C.J. Wilson: 16 (31st, 13)

I had five pitchers winning 17 games, including Halladay, Sabathia and Lee. The other two were Jon Lester, who finished with 15, and Tim Lincecum, who ended up with 13.

Kennedy was obviously the biggest miss. I had him as a solid fantasy starter because of a strong WHIP and strikeout rate. But I didn’t think he’d be so good and I didn’t expect the team around him (the Arizona bullpen in particular) to perform so well.

ERA
1. Clayton Kershaw: 2.28 (3rd, 2.97)
2. Roy Halladay: 2.35 (2nd, 2.84)
3. Cliff Lee: 2.40 (4th, 3.04)
4. Justin Verlander: 2.40 (23rd, 3.51)
5. Jered Weaver: 2.41 (21st, 3.49)
6. Ryan Vogelsong: 2.71 (no projection)
7. Tim Lincecum: 2.74 (5th, 3.09)
8. Cole Hamels: 2.79 (15th, 3.39)
9. James Shields: 2.82 (76th, 4.12)
10. Doug Fister: 2.83 (113th, 4.38)

As you’ve probably noticed by now, I’m a bit more conservative with pitching projections; not since Pedro Martinez’s prime have I projected anyone to finish with an ERA in the low-2.00s.

I had Felix Hernandez atop my ERA leaderboard this year at 2.74, but he came up well short at 3.47 for the year. Two of the other guys in my top 10 got hurt (Josh Johnson and Brett Anderson), while Mat Latos, Tommy Hanson and Lester failed to make the cut here.

Strikeouts
1. Justin Verlander: 250 (6th, 202)
2. Clayton Kershaw: 248 (5th, 205)
3. Cliff Lee: 238 (28th, 178)
4. CC Sabathia: 230 (11th, 192)
5. James Shields: 225 (34th, 172)
6. Felix Hernandez: 222 (4th, 207)
7. Roy Halladay: 220 (7th, 197)
7. Tim Lincecum: 220 (1st, 232)
9. David Price: 218 (8th, 194)
10. Yovani Gallardo: 207 (2nd, 211)

Seven of the top 10 match up here. The exceptions are Jon Lester (211 projected, 182 actual), Jered Weaver (193 projected, 198 actual) and Jonathan Sanchez (193 projected, 102 actual in 101 1/3 IP). Of course, I had just six pitchers projected to fan 200 batters.  In actuality, 14 did.

Report: Brewers sign Yovani Gallardo to a major league deal

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Free agent right-hander Yovani Gallardo is headed back to the Brewers on a major league deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports. No other terms have been reported yet, as the agreement is still pending a physical.

Gallardo, 31, completed a one-year run with the Mariners before getting his $13 million option declined by the team last month. He provided little value during his time in Seattle, pitching to a 5-10 record in 22 starts and putting up a 5.72 ERA, 4.1 BB/9 and 6.5 SO/9 in 130 2/3 innings as both a starter and reliever.

Still, assuming the veteran righty is on the cusp of a comeback, he may as well try for it with his original club. Gallardo last appeared for the Brewers from 2007 to 2014, racking up a cumulative 20.8 fWAR and peaking during the 2010 season, when he earned his first All-Star nomination and Silver Slugger award. This will be his ninth career season with the club.

Even with Gallardo aboard, the Brewers are expected to continue deepening their pitching stores for 2018. With team ace Jimmy Nelson still recovering from shoulder surgery, the club will enter the season with a projected rotation of Gallardo, Zach Davies, Chase Anderson and Junior Guerra, the latter of whom pitched just 70 1/3 innings in 2017 following a right calf strain and shin contusion. Another big name pitcher could help cement Milwaukee’s rotation and keep them competitive for another year, though they don’t appear to have made any concrete moves in that direction so far.